When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) - page 2.

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Strength in numbers

Quote from: dree12 on April 28, 2012, 09:49:23 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 28, 2012, 07:29:33 PM

funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice

what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important?

It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.

2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life.

That's the day the price spiked up over the current price. So assuming steady price till then, that will be the day.

dree12

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Quote from: adamstgBit on April 28, 2012, 07:29:33 PM

funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice

what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important?

It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.

2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life.

(It's right now 2012-04-29 UTC. The open was $4.9794, compared to the open of $2.88 last year).

By the way, to clarify, the period of no trade on Mt. Gox should be bridged with the 16.89 open (tradehill price was too volitile). (2011-06-20 to 2011-06-26)

adamstgBit

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funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice

what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important?

dree12

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As you are hopefully aware, the bitcoin price will likely not be repeating the same bubble pattern as last year. The question is, when will the prices intersect? We are currently 3x the 2011 bubble price, but have fallen below that mark before. Note that because of the leap year, 365 days ago is not equivalent to a year ago.

To make it easier to pinpoint the date (because trades are not continuous), the open price is the only price that will be compared.

June 20-26, 2011 did not have opens on Mt. Gox USD, so the opens will be considered $16.89 (not that it will likely matter considering our current situation).

Edit: Two days after I made the chart, massive gains last year and decreases now are rapidly shrinking the boundary. Only 73% (no longer 200%) remains between this year and last year!

Here's a new chart:

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