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Topic: When will October's bubble burst? - page 2. (Read 11026 times)

legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
October 24, 2013, 01:43:54 AM
Somebody is heavily playing the market (or trying tot do so, at least Smiley ). Deliberately putting large sale offers for much lower ask prices than current bids.

Too bad I didn't have a shitload of cash ready at the exchanges. Would have loved to pick up a huge stack of coins at these prices!
 
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
October 24, 2013, 01:42:02 AM
What would be the best LIVE graph or stats to watch as this all unfolds? Smiley as far as i know i just keep hitting refresh on mt.gox or look at my chrome widget. I am sure there is a better option?

rtbtc.com  has the best Real time stats that I know of.  However, It does requires a small fee to use.
Cheers
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
October 24, 2013, 01:39:33 AM
What would be the best LIVE graph or stats to watch as this all unfolds? Smiley as far as i know i just keep hitting refresh on mt.gox or look at my chrome widget. I am sure there is a better option?

I like http://www.bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/USD.

perfect and very easy on the eyes! Thanks a mucho Smiley
legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
October 24, 2013, 01:37:49 AM
What would be the best LIVE graph or stats to watch as this all unfolds? Smiley as far as i know i just keep hitting refresh on mt.gox or look at my chrome widget. I am sure there is a better option?

I like http://www.bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/USD.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
October 24, 2013, 01:36:36 AM
What would be the best LIVE graph or stats to watch as this all unfolds? Smiley as far as i know i just keep hitting refresh on mt.gox or look at my chrome widget. I am sure there is a better option?
hero member
Activity: 486
Merit: 500
October 24, 2013, 01:35:47 AM
ya or someone trying to hold up the market....!
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1008
October 24, 2013, 01:35:11 AM
someone is trying to tank the market. not so easy these days.
full member
Activity: 133
Merit: 100
October 24, 2013, 01:33:07 AM
Don't count your horses before they're hatched. This doesn't look like a reversal of the market; more likely it's a single trader dumping their half-a-million bucks worth of BTC. The critical part is what happens in the next few hours.

A single trader dumping on btcchina gox and bitstamp at the same time?
full member
Activity: 133
Merit: 100
October 24, 2013, 01:31:38 AM
damn how can I sleep now there is a chance to cheap coins before I wake up in the morning
legendary
Activity: 960
Merit: 1028
Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.
October 24, 2013, 01:31:27 AM
Don't count your horses before they're hatched. This doesn't look like a reversal of the market; more likely it's a single trader dumping their half-a-million bucks worth of BTC. That could be the trigger for a correction, but it's also possible that limit orders will start filling in and we see a recovery.

Keep your eye on the ball. The next few hours might get pretty interesting.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1008
October 24, 2013, 01:28:57 AM
legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
October 24, 2013, 01:26:29 AM
answer to OP: right now Cheesy

Wow. No kidding. POP.
full member
Activity: 133
Merit: 100
October 24, 2013, 01:24:57 AM
answer to OP: right now Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
October 24, 2013, 01:03:35 AM
So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck?
According to every serious study that has been done on this topic: there is no such thing as skill - just illusions created by our inability to understand randomness accurately.

The only way to consistently beat the market is to cheat.

So are you cheating when you buy BTC which outperforms the S&P 500?
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
October 24, 2013, 12:05:59 AM
Serious references, please.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1009
October 23, 2013, 09:23:18 PM
So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck?
According to every serious study that has been done on this topic: there is no such thing as skill - just illusions created by our inability to understand randomness accurately.

The only way to consistently beat the market is to cheat.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
October 23, 2013, 09:11:19 PM
I know traders posses skills and knowledge that I do not. But I also know there's some randomness in the mix. How much of trading success is due to skill vs. randomness? I think statistics dictates that if there are 1,000 traders of equal skill, a small percentage will do extremely well, simply due to being on the extreme edge of a probability curve -- in other words, some of those who look like geniuses will really just have benefitted from luck. So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck? And how does one know the trading tactics that worked well before will work again, when a much larger set of skilled traders may now be competing with them?

I'm long BTC, and while I buy on dips, I have yet to sell to take profits. I assume I might sell a portion of BTC at some level, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable to actively trade.

Learn by doing.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
October 23, 2013, 07:08:57 PM
I know traders posses skills and knowledge that I do not. But I also know there's some randomness in the mix. How much of trading success is due to skill vs. randomness? I think statistics dictates that if there are 1,000 traders of equal skill, a small percentage will do extremely well, simply due to being on the extreme edge of a probability curve -- in other words, some of those who look like geniuses will really just have benefitted from luck. So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck? And how does one know the trading tactics that worked well before will work again, when a much larger set of skilled traders may now be competing with them?

I'm long BTC, and while I buy on dips, I have yet to sell to take profits. I assume I might sell a portion of BTC at some level, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable to actively trade.

You don't know... until your luck runs out.
sr. member
Activity: 431
Merit: 261
October 23, 2013, 07:05:51 PM
I know traders posses skills and knowledge that I do not. But I also know there's some randomness in the mix. How much of trading success is due to skill vs. randomness? I think statistics dictates that if there are 1,000 traders of equal skill, a small percentage will do extremely well, simply due to being on the extreme edge of a probability curve -- in other words, some of those who look like geniuses will really just have benefitted from luck. So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck? And how does one know the trading tactics that worked well before will work again, when a much larger set of skilled traders may now be competing with them?

I'm long BTC, and while I buy on dips, I have yet to sell to take profits. I assume I might sell a portion of BTC at some level, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable to actively trade.
legendary
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1074
October 23, 2013, 02:30:12 AM
You understand that 10,000% means that for every 1 bitcoin you started out with in the beginning of that two week period, you ended up with the equivalent of 100 BTC (USD equiv)?  

I doubt that you did this and I doubt it was possible.
Read again. I only said I made 1,000%, and that it might have been possible for someone else (superman) to make 10,000%

IMO even Superman couldn't have made 10,000%, but maybe 2,000%. There just weren't enough profit points to take
advantage of without massive risks. But congratulations on your 10x win, that's my desired target for the next big crash, I'll train for it.
However, I now tend to believe we won't have now such a big crash, at least not on Gox. Maybe China will drop harder, but still not like in April.
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