Topic: When will the real bull run begin? - page 5. (Read 963 times)

I wonder why you're panicking and running out of patient when you have had patient till this time and want to see the price start skyrocketing, according to what you said that you got in cheap prices, You must be in a profit by now,  Bitcoin finds its bottom at $15k, and the current price $63k, which is about 4x increase in the price.

What was your goal before you invested initially, 2022 down here is 1 year plus, people buy Bitcoin and hold for 2, 4, 5 years and above ,so ask yourself what was your goal target.

You have answered the question yourself, usually the bull runs starts post few months of halving. But this year we have seen very good spike in the value of Bitcoin even before the halving due to factors like spot ETF approval. I think we just need to wait for some more month like mid of next year or end if this year to witness the bull run and until then there would be uncertainty in the market as we will go through some rough phase of frequent fluctuations.

Well, OP, You are the typical 'dude' that sucks bitcoin as a model of return obligatory. Then, the adjective patience is  to only exists for a monetary return, money, hey, we are not on the trading board, so, do you understand the importance of bitcoin in its other financial aspects.

Anyway, you will earn the automatic right to get rich, when the volatility of bitcoin dictates the right to profit at your whim.

I understand your sentiments, but you have to be patient. Historically Bitcoin's price doesn't increase right away after the halving. It does take a few months, always. My estimation is that it will get to a new ATH by the end of the year. Analysts are saying it might just cross 150k. If you have been HODLing for this long, what do a few more months matter. Try to be patient!

Mate I feel your frustration and sometimes I also feel impatient but your trust in bitcoin should ease your mind. We have to be patient or else there will be mo rewards for us.
History repeats itself. It is not only during the 2020 halving that it took quite a while for bitcoin to sky rocket. It happened on other previous halvings as well and most likely will happen on this one too.

really comprehend what you're saying but from the look of things I think that what you are saying is that you have been holding for long time and whenever you make a profit in any of the investment you make or any of the coins about you are holding you should make sure that you withdraw your profit all you need to draw your capital and the leaf your profit so that is the systematic way of investment in cryptocurrency was some people does not understand the protocols of a crypto investment they will hold onto the market is out of bullish season so that is why we see it many people does not like to learn and comprehend very well via cryptocurrency or bitcoin investment especially when bullrun affect your investment

If you bought bitcoin in 2022 then you are still making a profit of 2x or 3x, so that in itself is already something very incredible, if it were in other markets you would hardly have obtained such a profit. I think we always need to be grateful when we manage to make a profit of 2x or 3x, because there is no guarantee that the price will always go up a lot. The past event should not serve as a guarantee that it will repeat itself in the future. In the past, the price rose a lot after the halving, but this does not mean that the price must necessarily rise a lot in this halving, it may be the case that in this halving things are different and at most the price has a modest increase, such as 50% It's just that people need to be prepared for these types of scenarios and not get into feelings of anger and hate.


In my case I'm feeling good, I always get it in my head that this is a high-risk market and that past events are no guarantee that they will happen again, especially when it comes to large price increases. As the price becomes very high, the more complicated it becomes for it to increase by 3x, 10x. for example in the current scenario where the price of bitcoin is at $63000, rising to 5x is a very difficult mission, and 10x can be considered mission impossible, so we cannot look at the past increase and think that we will see the same thing in the future

I for one has been excited about the halving happening at a time when my knowledge of Bitcoin is emboldened enough and from my research of such happenings, the bull run should come within 3-6months after this current halving.
Everyone DCAing for sometime now, can still do so and wait for maturity stage before selling or an investor who has been patient enough to accumulate can either continue to do so or still sell.

Well, that's going to be dependent on the market and we cannot really know where we will go but only once we are there. It's best that you HODL and continue to buy if you are able to. I think the bull run would start around 6 months to 1 year I believe. Let's wait to have another run-up and be happy lol.

It is true that 4 months after the halving in 2020 Bitcoin experienced quite good price movements (up). However, you need to remember that the price of bitcoin started to rise higher, namely at the end of 2021. Then in November 2021 the price of bitcoin managed to break through the ATH at that time at $68K. So if you look at the historical records of the last Bitcoin halving, it means that the time interval before the Bitcoin price experienced a rapid increase (bull run), was approximately one year after the halving occurred. So in my opinion the bull run market that occurs this time will not be much different from the bull run markets that have occurred before. Therefore, you have to be more patient to get the target price you want. Because as we know, the Bitcoin halving just happened. So the potential for bitcoin to experience a very high price increase will definitely take a little longer (1-1.5 years). Therefore, until that happens, you must be able to strengthen your patience even more. And my advice, if you still have capital that can be invested in Bitcoin, then it's better to just continue doing DCA.

The highest value that month was less than $48,000.  So, you're already up more than 28% on the purchases you made that month.  Got it.  Great job! That's a very nice return on investment after only 27 months!

From mid-November 2022 through mid-March 2024 (16 months) we just had a huge bull run from a low of a bit less than $15,600 to a high of more than $73,000. That's an increase of almost 370%! I'm sorry about your patience, but it appears you weren't paying attention?

Wonderful! So, you have multiple purchases below $18,000 between November 7, 2022 and January 11, 2023. Isn't it exciting that all those purchases are now worth more than 3 times as much after less than 18 months!?

Honestly, I never find any price "interesting". It's just a number.  $10 per bitcoin sounds just as interesting to me as $1,000,000 per bitcoin.

That's great. That means you've experienced the bull run and can decide now if you want to do something else with your money, or if you want to continue to see what happens next with Bitcoin.  So many fun choices to make.

Waiting? Why?  If you just want profits, you can take them now.

Oh. Past performance is NEVER a guarantee of future results. There is one thing that I can say with a high level of confidence though:
Every time the bitcoin exchange rate hits a new all-time-high value, it will be within two years of when the bitcoin reward subsidy is cut in half.
That's a fun fact, isn't it?

Oh. Ok. I thought you said you wanted to take profits? If you would prefer to hold, that's a fun choice as well.

Real? Was there something imaginary about the bull run we already had? Also, if you want to take profits, you should think about the fact that we may be months away from a real bear run.  I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the value of Bitcoin was more than $250,000 a year from now, BUT I also wouldn't be at all surprised it if was $15,000 either (or anywhere in-between). If you want guaranteed profits, the only way to do that is to sell now.  If you want the possibility of higher profits, then you're going to need to accept the risk of lower profits or even total loss.

Again, there's been plenty of action. Is there something about that action that makes it imaginary? It certainly seems real to me.

I feel like you just like to complain. Maybe it makes you feel important when people respond to your complaints, I don't know. You're essentially bragging about how you made a lot of money, and simultaneously complaining that you want lots MORE money. I wasn't going to point that out, but since you asked.

Bull season is coming but no one can tell you exactly when it will happen, maybe in the next few months or maybe in the next few years. The only thing when investing in bitcoin is to be mentally prepared to hold it for a long time and maybe longer than you originally planned. Don't speculate with bitcoin and think you can easily make a profit from it. I mean, don't focus too much on news like ETFs or halvings, they can be factors in creating a bull season but nothing is 100% guaranteed.

Actually, looking at previous halvings like that of 2016 and 2020 it took within 160 days before the bull run began but for the fact that ATH was created before this halving makes it difficult to predict when bull run will be speculated to occur because when we look at the last quarters of 2023 till now, you can agree with me that it has been a bullish period so now that the halving event has also occurred, there will be some oscillation in the price of Bitcoin and if you observed you will see that since the halving the price have not been too forward neither too backwards so some after halving corrections may occur before we can start experiencing the real bull run. But let's just expect the real bull run within 200 days after the halving

Before this year ends, I guess. But I am not expecting for the uptrend to happen within a month after the halving. As we can see on the market, prices of crypto are still down and have low volume compared to previous months which is an indicator of a bearish tendency. Obviously, the best thing to do now is to patiently wait for further market confirmations. Things won't happen on a single snap which is an enough reason to avoid FOMO and FUDs. Just observe for now and fill your bags if there will be a better opportunity under your risk appetite.
It was just a misconception and were just referred in such way because of the events which happened before after the halving. But if you would look closer to timeframes, there were a lot of accumulation stages on the previous halving before the increase became continuous. Altcoin season on the other hand happens after Bitcoin dominance, which happened numerous times in this industry.

yes there is a known sentiment that once a pattern is known. people plan for the pattern and thus manoeuvre differently than unknown precedence's previously, thus end up changing the pattern now its a known factor of the masses

however the consequence can actually make the pattern appear sooner or out perform previous


what you have to realise is that there are places on the planet where electric is more than $0.50/kwh which is where people having a mining cost of
over $140k right now. and so when they see market rates of under $140k, they are happy to buy at market instead of mining as its a discount compared to mining.
with continual growth of mining costs this too makes more people happily buy at market even when premium as its still discount compared to mining

the secret to finding the resistance point of market purchasing is to find the most expensive mining cost on planet..
in 2021 it was $75k which explained why buy orders dried up at $70k in 2021
oops did i just reveal another stat people can use to find patterns of lows and highs

Has anyone ever suspected that bull season is coming? I mean there won't be a bull season like we expected and the game has changed. It changed because when people realized that the bull season will come after the halving, and people are holding tight to take profits. Think about it, if everyone is determined to hold and not sell and only sell when the price increases, who will be willing to spend money to buy at a higher price?
I am thinking about this scenario and I think we will no longer have a bull season or a bear season, instead bitcoin will grow slowly and sustainably, not increase sharply and decrease sharply like before. That also means there won't be an altcoin season like many people expect.

"just the last few days have been struggling"

seems you had bad advice from someone who promised you to get millions in days of halving
THEY LIED TO YOU
you pinned your greed, your hopes, your wishes on bad advice from whomever told you that you will get rich quick at the halvening

first bit of advice calm your nerves and reset your greed aspirations.

the next ATH is usually 1 year+ after a halving and the chances of a 100x from last ATH is not a expectation any more
1st cycle was 100x ($0.30-$30)
2nd cycle was 40x ($30-$1.2k)
3rd cycle was 16x ($1.2k-$20k)
4th cycle was 3.5x ($20k-70k)

so dont expect 100x again expect 2-4x of last ATH

if you have been buying since 2022 then you have been buying during the cycles lows of $15k-$40k
so your amounts should be 1.5x-3x+ already
lets say we do just 2x from last ATH(140k) but you bought at the current cycles (2022 mid) of $35k you may get a 4x, but thats*
lets say we do 4x from last ATH(280k) but you bought at the current cycles 2022 low of $16k you may get a 17x, but thats*
*still just wishful hopes with no knowledge of what the end ATH will be for this cycle

as for when you wish to cash out. well no one can predict the ultimate ATH
it may be $100k/$140k/$200k/$280k

the next struggle you will have is again YOUR GREED
you may wait or hope for say $200k/$280k but wait and wait, where the ATH might only hit $140k so you end up not selling out due to the GREED of being told to expect/wait for $200k+ so end up not selling in 2025 and thus end up having to wait until the next cycle of 2028-2029's halving and ATH


next bit of advise you are already in profit. no one suggests you should cash out all of it but if money is a struggle which you cant survive the next year. take out SOME of your profit now to cope with the short term and that will calm your struggle as you wait for the ATH next year

If today is June, 2025, you're not wrong to ask this question.

But now it's still April, 2024, it's not even reach Q4 2024, while the last two bull season occur in Q4 halving event.

From now on to Q3, it's expected the "dip" before Bitcoin price spikes.

The lowest of Bitcoin price since 2021 was $20K, 100x gains mean the price will hit $2M and the market cap will be $40T, it looks too high for a decade...

Yes some of my altcoins have seen over 3000% gain since middle of last year but I didn't cash it all out - I am waiting for the real bull run to come when that 3000% may turn into 6000% or even more.