Topic: Where are we? (Read 3552 times)

If you have 50k in invest in crypto currency then you likely know how to navigate through the KYC procedures to avoid the lengthy delays, and know how to correctly answer all the "questions" that are asked of you when dealing with large amounts.

IMO the main reason why people have such trouble dealing with bans and bitcoin is because they do not know how to navigate corporate america.

Noone knows, its bad question.

So the take from this is:  value your bitcoin according to where you can get it and where you can sell it.  For non-whales, that's php exchanges and localbitcoins

This.

To verify, someone should poll 100 people. Right now, we're WAY on the left of that scale.

1) when you become a whale and want to deposit $50k into a php exchange.. you will see the headache you get in response..
2) when you become a whale and want to withdraw $50k out of a php exchange.. you will see the headache you get in response..
3) read points 1 and 2 again and realise whales dont bother with php exchanges. 
4) arbitraging bitcoins for altcoins fine. but trying to arbitrage FIAT.. forget it.. read points 1 and 2 yet again for example why
5) when a whale sees another whale they both see the big picture and understand that fighting after plankton, knowing one mouthful would kill the lot and leave them starving for months, plus more energy consuming compared to swimming in other waters where the bigger fish can be eaten more easily and selectively. you will see more reasons why whales dont touch PHP exchanges.
6) look at exchanges like btc-e, 98% of orders are under 1BTC each

as for the burger analogy.. withdrawing btc from one exchange and depositing in another takes about 70minutes (1 confirm for withdrawal, then 6 confirms on deposit) for fiat.. well that can take days.

so get in your car and get a burger from one location. and i bet that 50 miles away (hours drive at moderate speed) the price of a burger differs. especially if its a different franchise/company.. even if the burger is the same type..

people pay extra if its easier to get hold of, if the service is better, and many other factors.

Oh yes, it will. Bitcoin is much more accessible than the internet. You only need an SMS-capable dumbphone to use bitcoin, you need a smartphone or laptop to access the internet.

When did you land? I landed in the land of BTC in the year 2011. 

Usually, when there is a big difference between the prices on different exchanges some people(or more correct bots) come along, buy on the exchange with the low price and sell on the exchange with the high price. So the price difference evens out (more or less).
So, I am wondering: Why doesn't that happen between "php-exchanges" and "whale places"? Why wouldn't a whale buy this cheap bitocins? The volumn-difference should just mean, that the "whale place"-price is more dominant.
P.S. The Burger-example doesn't work here, since you can't just send a burger over the internet.

Application of statistical


on statistic, the curve is normal call distribution. Where, these percentages that appear is the area of the region (x100)  limited superiorly by curve, inferiorly by the horizontal line and laterally by vertical lines.

everyone seems to misunderstand this graph..

it is to show percentages of adoption.. not population numbers.

lets say only 20 million people use bitcoin.
in the innovation stage (2.5%) =500,000
in the early adopter stage (13.5%) =2,700,000
in the early majority stage (34%) =6,800,000
in the late majority stage (34%) =6,800,000
in the laggards stage (16%) =3,200,000

this would total the 20million users. and would look like an S curve on a graph.. an S curve is a better example to use to show adoption.

as for the bases of noobs "true" value. the answer is BARTER. no its not a website, its not a ticker, its not a place you can goto. specifically its the opposite.

once sheeple stop fixing prices based on panic sales of an exchange that only moves 12k coins a day, and instead base their sell prices on their own costs and their own fair value. and how much the other person is willing to pay for your coins. you will have your own price valuation.

the places like localbitcoins otc private investment vessels are should NEVER be fixed to a single price based on another locations price. what there needs to be is 300 different prices and then a consensus of average value of the 13million coins in circulation based on that average.

EG ham burgers are not fixed based on the dollar price of mcdonalds in downtown new york. if you go to a mcdonalds in thailand and converted their prices into dollar it wont be the same. if you went to a mcdonalds in the UK, the price wont be the same. the difference between a mcdonalds hamburger in new york foodmall differs to that in a service stop mcdonalds at the side of a motorway/highway.

yet people pay it.

so people need to stop sheep following exchanges, as thats what happened when western exchanges that could not arbitrage china.. simply, for no reason but being sheep, followed prices down to $600 in january. and then when mtgox shut its bank account people sheep followed the price down to $450, before finally waking up.. if they did not wake up and continued to follow gox, bitcoin would be at $100 today.

so if bitcoin drops $10 on bitstamp.. and your on BTC-e. dont be a sheep and tank the price by $10 (same for vice versa).

my personal sources of price variety are from atleast 35 different locations of all varying amounts. but my previous post mentions atleast 4 of them, even if some of those are still sheep followers.

as for where i trade. well thats not in the list i gave before. and many whales along with myself are all still valuing bitcoin at $500+. and their is larger demand compared to PHP exchanges only fiddling about with 12k volume a day.

again. do not think that movements of thousands of coins should be a good source of valuing your coin or the whole 13mill+ coins. base your prices on your own costs and supplies. vs customers preferences and desire. use other prices only as a grey are not a strict price rule

I humble opinion:  I believe we are at the chasm.  Bitcoin's major obstacle right now is avoiding obscurity.  Anyone who would be in the early majority has already heard of Bitcoin but is not buying in because there is no gain for them at present, or they listen to others opinions on the subject who are giving misleading/false information, or many other reasons.  I also believe that the potential, the enormous VC interest, and the growing list of vendors will push us up and over and at some point, the early majority will pull the trigger.  The fact that Bitcoin is global cannot be ignored.  Mass adoption has way too many places to come from. 


the Segway comment made me pause, but franky1 is dead on.  Look at the scooter market.  Those things have nice little baskets to put your twinkies in.


Localbitcoins has its usual premium over the php exchanges, but I am not able to see any bids on bitcoinOTC or anywhere else for that matter that suggest that php exchanges are undervaluing BTC/USD.  Could you be more clear as to where to go to get the true value?  I think that would be extremely valuable information to this community, as the question has been asked a few times in this thread.

TLDR:  where does a noob get the true value of BTC/USD?  Buyers want to know.

Technology adoption lifecycle

If we are at the early majority, then it means the price will never achieve ATH again.
Also, what the hell does early majority mean for you? If I ask around in real life, no one knows what the fuck Bitcoin is neither they are interested.

Normal distribution?

No problem. BTC and other crypto currency are innovating themselves. You are not too late.

We are in the land of bitcoinz

I am in the late majority and hoping not really late yet. 

Just to ensure that I understand- you're expecting this percentage to decrease over the coming years?

Very early stage... Still in incubator stage... The mining part has taken off to the moon but adoption and coin buying has not.

Hope that helps.

segways are not that useful... the purpose of a segway is for the lazy person, yet the majority of lazy people are too fat and exceed the maximum weight to use one... thus segway has a very narrow niche..

bitcoins niche is ANYONE and EVERYONE, should they voluntarily choose to use it