Kind of a venture capitalist theory. Which is, I guess, appropriate, since early speculators in crypto are essentially that...we're providing venture capital.
The difference is that we don't have the kind of capital that a typical VC could deploy and also that we're not capable of vetting management teams and technology the same way that a VC could. Most of us simply don't have the capital and/or experience (management of managers, also programming bona fides, TPTB excepted).
Topic: Where on Google Maps is the crypto bagholders cemetery? - page 2. (Read 1511 times)
for all the heavy bags I'm holding (and there are many), I've had just enough success picking coins and tops to keep my net position positive, so my bags are just like firecrackers waiting to go off. if you have enough of them you can still do OK. e.g. I loaded up on 'duck' XDN when it first came out in OTC threads thinking the name alone would appeal to doge lovers. I managed to pick the top of the later pump and made 120+ bitcoins profit. Psychologically that made all my bags feel like future firecrackers, so I don't feel bad. You just need one or two a year and your bags are fine
Great link on disposition bias. Love it.
Nice find, Spoetnik!!!! You found the bagholder!
Nice find, Spoetnik!!!! You found the bagholder!
There may also be an element of something like a selection bias. If you're currently holding a bag, it's easy to believe that it's about to turn around.
Most of bolded is explained by the dispostion effect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposition_effect
Interesting biases/theories that are related to this are the endownment effect and prospect theory. All boil down to behavioral finance, which is in my opinion an interesting subject.
Quote
Wish the CC news sites would put some effort into doing a study on this. To put some realistic sober data out there instead of the incessant prostituting of half-assed research in articles pumping shitcoins to newcomers.
They call that FUD
Well said OP.. Some do end up leaving though.
Sometimes people get burned so bad they really have no choice but to cut their losses and leave crypto.
I have met people in person who told me that.
But yeah great points.
EDIT: By the way..
Speculation in startups is normally a very risky endeavor wherein you lose perhaps up to 9 times out of 10 (depending how selective you are, the quality of your due diligence research, probability math skills, and objectivity), and your winner is the one that makes it all worth it especially if you hit the jackpot with a 100X or 1000X gain. Or perhaps you primarily invest in ideologically appealing causes and accept any wins as frosting.
But humans are prone to the Gambler's fallacy and the Hot-hand fallacy, so instead of learning to play these probabilities correctly, I think many of them instead prefer to become involved in a scam or deception to try to increase their surety, but the downside of this is to enter the dark side slippery slope which I bet normally leads to prison and a broken life down the line, because a fact of life is that those who can't stay grounded in reality of societal norms, fallacy of short-cuts[1], and objective ethics on increasing the size of the pie (a form of the non-agression principle), typically end up REKTED.
[1] http://blogs.oii.ox.ac.uk/floridi/wp-content/uploads/sites/67/2014/05/lfais.pdf
https://www.google.com/search?q=idea+that+there+are+no+short+cuts+to+success
But humans are prone to the Gambler's fallacy and the Hot-hand fallacy, so instead of learning to play these probabilities correctly, I think many of them instead prefer to become involved in a scam or deception to try to increase their surety, but the downside of this is to enter the dark side slippery slope which I bet normally leads to prison and a broken life down the line, because a fact of life is that those who can't stay grounded in reality of societal norms, fallacy of short-cuts[1], and objective ethics on increasing the size of the pie (a form of the non-agression principle), typically end up REKTED.
[1] http://blogs.oii.ox.ac.uk/floridi/wp-content/uploads/sites/67/2014/05/lfais.pdf
https://www.google.com/search?q=idea+that+there+are+no+short+cuts+to+success
Thanks, TPTB!
It's a fascinating topic.
Would love to hear more thoughts about how/why more people ain't exactly keeping it real with regard to their bagholder status and/or prowess in the markets.
From your original post on it: "Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick."
It's a fascinating topic.
Would love to hear more thoughts about how/why more people ain't exactly keeping it real with regard to their bagholder status and/or prowess in the markets.
From your original post on it: "Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick."
Seems I remember during the last downturn in this market, the threads such as "indications you might be a bagholder" ("you might be a bagholder if...") were more popular?
Was that guys venting their feelings about their own losses by being sarcastic about the losses of the other guy? A psychological defense mechanism.
Was that guys venting their feelings about their own losses by being sarcastic about the losses of the other guy? A psychological defense mechanism.
Per vuduchyld's suggestion, I am starting a new unmoderated thread so everyone can discuss without bumping or spamming the Moderation Speculation thread wherein this discussion originated:
What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?
The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?
Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.
Post of the Week right there. Fascinating topic.
Some of it is due to the power of the anonymity of an internet forum. People simply don't interact here in the same way they would in a localized, less anonymous environment.
Related to that, I suspect that people assume it negatively impacts their credibility when they admit to making mistakes about backing the wrong horse. There is no real incentive to admitting one made a mistake, especially if that makes other statements one makes (anonymously) less well-received.
There may also be an element of something like a selection bias. If you're currently holding a bag, it's easy to believe that it's about to turn around. My guess, which is pure projection because I've done this, is that you keep holding some coin on which you're way underwater, not because you believe the hype you believed when you bought it, but because you HOPE for that hype to take hold again, if even for a day, so you can get out with less pain. If you haven't sold at a loss and realized those losses, again, there may be no self-admission that it's a bag you're holding.
Finally, I think it's REALLY EASY to be infected by a common problem among gamblers and speculators. When you're successful, it's because you're smart. When you are not successful, it's because you were unlucky or it's due to manipulation. So our "winning" trades are due to our brilliance, which we will shout to the rooftops. Our "losing" trades are just bad luck and not worth mentioning. That totally happens IRL, as well.
This would be a great thread for the Alt Discussion board!
What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?
The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?
Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.
*raises hand*
I think it is because it is a topic victims find embarrassing and would rather forget? We are males (mostly here) and I presume we don't like to be perceived as weak or having failures of judgement.
The fact that big losers often just quit and become invisible helps perpetuate the game. We're still here, and there are still plenty of P&D scams. But at the same time growth of the crypto community is limited. We chew up and spit out a lot of newcomers.
Wish the CC news sites would put some effort into doing a study on this. To put some realistic sober data out there instead of the incessant prostituting of half-assed research in articles pumping shitcoins to newcomers.
+1
Well, i also thought i can stack up my stash with trading (nOOb trying to "read" the candels), lost a few €k on Monero and now i am getting back my losses by ASIC trading to make up these lost Moneroj. Time, a month or two, will tell if i succeed in doing so.
I also learned it the hard way, like i always did, and i am glad to watch people sharing their knowledge and learning from them, like we all do
"Errors are there to be made, the main thing is to learn from these!"
What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?
The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?
To me this is easy to answer. They left the scene altogether.
Probably, but I think it's easy to forget how few of us (real people) there are in a sea of scammers and shill accounts all trying to defraud one another.
Additionally, there's a difference between people who are generally interested in cryptocurrency and its future and those who simply want to make money trading it. The latter tend to get bored and disappear after losing their shirt a couple times.
What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?
The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?
Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.
*raises hand*
I think it is because it is a topic victims find embarrassing and would rather forget? We are males (mostly here) and I presume we don't like to be perceived as weak or having failures of judgement.
sometimes there are stories in other sections of btct (here too), but for the most part theres really no reward mechanism for coming here with a losing story. most people here come to make money. most people stay here to make money.
i would imagine the reason that such stories are rarely heard is because typically sob stories wont make you richer here. what will provably make you more money is more money. you could try lobbying for legislation, enforcement or control if you dont have money.
control is probably much easier had by scamming. and not much happens as far as enforcement unless its over a certain marketcap amount.
legislation, you seem to have made the point that its on its way in two years, a while out
apart from 'male ego', theres no real reason to share a sordid story.
If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.
What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?
The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?
Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.
Post of the Week right there. Fascinating topic.
Some of it is due to the power of the anonymity of an internet forum. People simply don't interact here in the same way they would in a localized, less anonymous environment.
Related to that, I suspect that people assume it negatively impacts their credibility when they admit to making mistakes about backing the wrong horse. There is no real incentive to admitting one made a mistake, especially if that makes other statements one makes (anonymously) less well-received.
There may also be an element of something like a selection bias. If you're currently holding a bag, it's easy to believe that it's about to turn around. My guess, which is pure projection because I've done this, is that you keep holding some coin on which you're way underwater, not because you believe the hype you believed when you bought it, but because you HOPE for that hype to take hold again, if even for a day, so you can get out with less pain. If you haven't sold at a loss and realized those losses, again, there may be no self-admission that it's a bag you're holding.
Finally, I think it's REALLY EASY to be infected by a common problem among gamblers and speculators. When you're successful, it's because you're smart. When you are not successful, it's because you were unlucky or it's due to manipulation. So our "winning" trades are due to our brilliance, which we will shout to the rooftops. Our "losing" trades are just bad luck and not worth mentioning. That totally happens IRL, as well.
This would be a great thread for the Alt Discussion board!
If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.
What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?
The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?
Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.
*raises hand*
I think it is because it is a topic victims find embarrassing and would rather forget? We are males (mostly here) and I presume we don't like to be perceived as weak or having failures of judgement.
Exactly my thoughts, it is mostly embarrassment and that male pride. No one is inclined to share their bad trades but tons of fake gloating goes about in the altcoin scene and crypto in general.
Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.
The fact that big losers often just quit and become invisible helps perpetuate the game. We're still here, and there are still plenty of P&D scams. But at the same time growth of the crypto community is limited. We chew up and spit out a lot of newcomers.
Wish the CC news sites would put some effort into doing a study on this. To put some realistic sober data out there instead of the incessant prostituting of half-assed research in articles pumping shitcoins to newcomers.
I made a lot (like $10k) buying Dogecoin from $300 per million all the way up to $1800 per million. Then as it fell I gave a lot of it back.
Then I moved half of that money into Nyancoin and let it sit.
Today those are both relatively worthless investments, so you could say I lost quite a bit.
Today I am happily and successfully 'bagholding' cryptonotes but I don't fault my losses from the animal-coin era. I learned a lot about crypto, and it only cost me a few thousand dollars. That's tuition well spent. Perhaps if cryptonotes take off we might even see a long awaited ROI from that tuition.
Then I moved half of that money into Nyancoin and let it sit.
Today those are both relatively worthless investments, so you could say I lost quite a bit.
Today I am happily and successfully 'bagholding' cryptonotes but I don't fault my losses from the animal-coin era. I learned a lot about crypto, and it only cost me a few thousand dollars. That's tuition well spent. Perhaps if cryptonotes take off we might even see a long awaited ROI from that tuition.
+1
Well, i also thought i can stack up my stash with trading (nOOb trying to "read" the candels), lost a few €k on Monero and now i am getting back my losses by ASIC trading to make up these lost Moneroj. Time, a month or two, will tell if i succeed in doing so.
I also learned it the hard way, like i always did, and i am glad to watch people sharing their knowledge and learning from them, like we all do
"Errors are there to be made, the main thing is to learn from these!"
If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.
What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?
The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?
To me this is easy to answer. They left the scene altogether.
Probably, but I think it's easy to forget how few of us (real people) there are in a sea of scammers and shill accounts all trying to defraud one another.
Additionally, there's a difference between people who are generally interested in cryptocurrency and its future and those who simply want to make money trading it. The latter tend to get bored and disappear after losing their shirt a couple times.
If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.
What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?
The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?
Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.
*raises hand*
I think it is because it is a topic victims find embarrassing and would rather forget? We are males (mostly here) and I presume we don't like to be perceived as weak or having failures of judgement.
sometimes there are stories in other sections of btct (here too), but for the most part theres really no reward mechanism for coming here with a losing story. most people here come to make money. most people stay here to make money.
i would imagine the reason that such stories are rarely heard is because typically sob stories wont make you richer here. what will provably make you more money is more money. you could try lobbying for legislation, enforcement or control if you dont have money.
control is probably much easier had by scamming. and not much happens as far as enforcement unless its over a certain marketcap amount.
legislation, you seem to have made the point that its on its way in two years, a while out
apart from 'male ego', theres no real reason to share a sordid story.
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