if you failed to label it primary, you would miss out on the entire move from $50-$1200. the entire thing is invalid right. your hero DanV would have not served you well in this case.
Topic: Who else is panic buying? (Read 3003 times)
Matt, why dont you label this chart. dont label it as a primary, because thats against the rules!!
if you failed to label it primary, you would miss out on the entire move from $50-$1200. the entire thing is invalid right. your hero DanV would have not served you well in this case.
if you failed to label it primary, you would miss out on the entire move from $50-$1200. the entire thing is invalid right. your hero DanV would have not served you well in this case.
If you remember the earlier case less selectively, you will remember that I knew we could be in a wave B. but I wanted confirmation. you would also remember that I shorted from 750 all the way down to 450 alongside the other EW analysts when it was proved to be the case, so I was not 'wrong'. you simply thought the price was too expensive for your liking, which is not very good EW analysis. what is a bitcoin worth btw?
Not that I was even aware of DanV at the time, But DanV would have argued (and did indeed argue) that the impulse wave which consisted of his Primary Wave 3, was confirmed as finished when the trendline cojoining the start of the move and the termination point of the 2nd wave, was breached (mid Dec 2013 at about $700), although a good trader wouldn't have waited that long to close his long positions. I believe we were having our little 'down or up' debate in February. From the little I know about EW, I don't see what trendline any EW analyst could be waiting on to confirm that the impulse wave was over and we were by then firmly in correction territory. The next plausable trend line is the support line coming to meet the market now and currently hovering around $435.
I know that EW is about providing templates for future price projections which is what DanV does so well. From viewing his legacy material, I have seen him be wrong with specific price targets just as I have seen him be very right with specific price targets. But the main point of his analysis is to provide templates for future price action and if you watch his videos/sessions, he also provides possible alternatives to his favoured projections which could come into being should certain price criteria be met.
DanV isn't infallable, but I would certainly pay a lot of attention to anything he says regarding Bitcoin. Anyone with a proven track record, especially when in the face of popular opinion, I will sit up and pay attention to...even if they get it wrong as well.
You might have traded EW for 4 years and you may well have seen a thing or two but that doesn't mean you are right. I am a spaz, when it comes to TA and trading in general, yet I seem to remember me being right when stating we were definitely going down from $800 and you with your 4 years experience, and the majority of others here, being wrong.
when you eventually realise what EW means you will realise how naive what you have just said was. I do not begin and end every sentence I write with probably imo because I think that should be understood on a speculation forum. EW is ambiguous and does not determine the fundamentals - LOL. DanV has been 'wrong' many times, I have been 'wrong' many times but we have both made good money trading EW.
there are always multiple pathways the market can take from juncture to juncture. the strength that makes EW king of all TA is that we have precise and detailed expectations that when broken allow us to cut losses (usually at a profit) and maximise profits before the market reverses. also it is a leading indicator, Ill be in at the tip of the wave before the macd turns. in this case 355.
If you remember the earlier case less selectively, you will remember that I knew we could be in a wave B. but I wanted confirmation. you would also remember that I shorted from 750 all the way down to 450 alongside the other EW analysts when it was proved to be the case, so I was not 'wrong'. you simply thought the price was too expensive for your liking, which is not very good EW analysis. what is a bitcoin worth btw?
Like I said, DanV is a hypocrite. that is not a rule at all, trend lines do not occur every where that EW occur. If you have followed DanV over the last few weeks you have lost a lot of money. How many weeks have you studied EW? well I have actually traded EW for more than 4 years and Ive seen a thing or two. I am seeing my analysis play out right now and Im making money. DanV has the zombies on tradingview short from 430.
Are you serious?
DanV's Short zone was $540 upwards....and actually, it never got back up there. This was after the $548 top.
The zone we are in now, I seem to remember DanV stating as a no trade zone which is from who I am taking my Q. That no trade zone is narrowing all the time, which way is it gonna go?
my intuition is:
This much (time) downside:- | |
This much (time) upside:- | |
and in that order.
You might have traded EW for 4 years and you may well have seen a thing or two but that doesn't mean you are right. I am a spaz, when it comes to TA and trading in general, yet I seem to remember me being right when stating we were definitely going down from $800 and you with your 4 years experience, and the majority of others here, being wrong.
I've found TradingView users in general not to be helpful at all for BTC trading. It seems like every single chart is wrong.
Most of them are trash imo. But their are some gems in amongst the gravel. I know they are good from watching them and witnessing their track records in real time.
Well, fuck you pal!
Just so i understand your trading advice how would I go fuck myself.... Do you want me to use some of those EW trading tools you are so fond of or I could always use the profits from the sub 300 prices you keep talking about to buy some hookers.....oh wait they really have not happend yet have they...i suppose i gotta just keep waiting dont i
Its going to be a long and happy bull run bear boy... I look forward to our ongoing discussions on how happy you are ..lolz
Keep trying Its a learning process
I've found TradingView users in general not to be helpful at all for BTC trading. It seems like every single chart is wrong.
What is your analysis again?
impulsive C wave complete by all fractals, impulsive primary off 339. wave V or B in process or close to being in process. no more lows.
https://www.tradingview.com/u/chessnut/#published-charts
overlapping waves are allowed within leading diagonals and expanding wedges as primary waves. overlapping trendlines?
overlapping waves are allowed within leading diagonals and expanding wedges as primary waves. overlapping trendlines?
From my understanding, on an impulse wave the starting point of Wave 1 and the base of Wave 2 provides the tangent points for the trendline for the EW. Once that line has been confirmed as breached, then whatever EW pattern that was occurring on the correct side of that trendline, is finished. This is the way that DanV reckons that it is. I don't care what anyone else says. I like the way that DanV does things cos I have seen the results.....yes, with the benefit of hindsight but DanV never had the benefit of hindsight when he put his videos and charts out.
In your BTC Fractals chart, Your primary impulse EW pattern is almost over before it has even begun due to the trendline beween the starting point of I ($995) and the termination point of II ($910), killing the potential EW dead just 2-3 days later in the mid $800s.
That is one reason why to my understanding, your Primary EW count is wrong and if u get the Primary EW wrong, then all the subordinate EW are also going to be wrong, and then there is also the small matter of what went before that and how it fits into the overall picture?
Like I said, DanV is a hypocrite. that is not a rule at all, trend lines do not occur every where that EW occur. If you have followed DanV over the last few weeks you have lost a lot of money. How many weeks have you studied EW? well I have actually traded EW for more than 4 years and Ive seen a thing or two. I am seeing my analysis play out right now and Im making money. DanV has the zombies on tradingview short from 430.
https://www.tradingview.com/u/chessnut/#published-charts
overlapping waves are allowed within leading diagonals and expanding wedges as primary waves. overlapping trendlines?
overlapping waves are allowed within leading diagonals and expanding wedges as primary waves. overlapping trendlines?
From my understanding, on an impulse wave the starting point of Wave 1 and the base of Wave 2 provides the tangent points for the trendline for the EW. Once that line has been confirmed as breached, then whatever EW pattern that was occurring on the correct side of that trendline, is finished. This is the way that DanV reckons that it is. I don't care what anyone else says. I like the way that DanV does things cos I have seen the results.....yes, with the benefit of hindsight but DanV never had the benefit of hindsight when he put his videos and charts out.
In your BTC Fractals chart, Your primary impulse EW pattern is almost over before it has even begun due to the trendline beween the starting point of I ($995) and the termination point of II ($910), killing the potential EW dead just 2-3 days later in the mid $800s.
That is one reason why to my understanding, your Primary EW count is wrong and if u get the Primary EW wrong, then all the subordinate EW are also going to be wrong, and then there is also the small matter of what went before that and how it fits into the overall picture?
i'm buying, but not in panic. When I'm starting to panic I go play some game for a while, no matter how bad the situation is.
for me we going up because sellers either are already out of the market forever or just stand-by, or are in the last phase of Kübler-Ross the model, so we won't see massive panic sells for a while:
1)Negation
2)Anger
3)Bargaining
4)Depression
5) Acceptance(here we are)
for me we going up because sellers either are already out of the market forever or just stand-by, or are in the last phase of Kübler-Ross the model, so we won't see massive panic sells for a while:
1)Negation
2)Anger
3)Bargaining
4)Depression
5) Acceptance(here we are)
Edit: Am off too look for your own EW charts. But seem to remember not being able to make heads nor tales of how you had applied your waves (i.e. not conforming to guidelines).
Wave analysis may be very ambiguos, most of the time it is. sometimes the only thing we can truly know is the junctures in retrospect, but not the future. after all, ew is only the reflection of fundamentals, and fundamentals can change in a flash. I do not go about breaking the rules of EW analysis because they are pretty robust, but you must realise that EW science is very young and relatively unexplored, and that the 'rules' are only written by a few humble people. DanV takes the rules to ridiculous levels, and yet he is a hypocrite, calling my analysis invalid because of overlaps on a one minute scale of an hourly analysis on a BTCCNY chart. there is no valid bitcoin analysis down to the 1min chart, especially his own.
U on TradingView?
If so show me a link your EW charts. The one I have found on here has price action over lapping trendlines n shit.
https://www.tradingview.com/u/chessnut/#published-charts
overlapping waves are allowed within leading diagonals and expanding wedges as primary waves. overlapping trendlines?
Edit: Am off too look for your own EW charts. But seem to remember not being able to make heads nor tales of how you had applied your waves (i.e. not conforming to guidelines).
Wave analysis may be very ambiguos, most of the time it is. sometimes the only thing we can truly know is the junctures in retrospect, but not the future. after all, ew is only the reflection of fundamentals, and fundamentals can change in a flash. I do not go about breaking the rules of EW analysis because they are pretty robust, but you must realise that EW science is very young and relatively unexplored, and that the 'rules' are only written by a few humble people. DanV takes the rules to ridiculous levels, and yet he is a hypocrite, calling my analysis invalid because of overlaps on a one minute scale of an hourly analysis on a BTCCNY chart. there is no valid bitcoin analysis down to the 1min chart, especially his own.
U on TradingView?
If so show me a link your EW charts. The one I have found on here has price action over lapping trendlines n shit.
Edit: Am off too look for your own EW charts. But seem to remember not being able to make heads nor tales of how you had applied your waves (i.e. not conforming to guidelines).
Wave analysis may be very ambiguos, most of the time it is. sometimes the only thing we can truly know is the junctures in retrospect, but not the future. after all, ew is only the reflection of fundamentals, and fundamentals can change in a flash. I do not go about breaking the rules of EW analysis because they are pretty robust, but you must realise that EW science is very young and relatively unexplored, and that the 'rules' are only written by a few humble people. DanV takes the rules to ridiculous levels, and yet he is a hypocrite, calling my analysis invalid because of overlaps on a one minute scale of an hourly analysis on a BTCCNY chart. there is no valid bitcoin analysis down to the 1min chart, especially his own.
cry me a river ......that was then this is now...
Next you will be telling me of sub 300 prices and your bullshit EW crap that only works in a test tube
I use EW as a support indicator but trying to buy into teh whole magic grail EW & trade of them is a fools paradise
Own up to the fact that the market has capitulated & any buy in here is a sound investment ...I will enjoy watching this bull market for the next 6-9 months bear boy
And yeah i will be asking u when the sub 300 prices are coming...
You are getting emotional. If the OP listens to anything you say then he does so at his own peril.
My sub $300 claim wasn't based on EW. I hadn't even looked into what EW actually was back then. It was mid march, Bitcoin was trending around mid $500's, and I just decided that I didn't fucking like it all. Since then Bitcoin has put in a lower low and gotten within $40 of that 'of the top of my head' target.
Right now, at this very moment in time I do kind of like Bitcoin but for me to go long, it has to confirm to me that I amn't going to get chopped around like a biatch and/or spend significant amount of time under water, fearing if the market is going to slip down even further. I have learned that I prefer to spare myself all of that. But if I like Bitcoin in medium term, I am still not convinced about the short term. I think it is more likely than not that the $340 low will have to be retested and possibly even breached.
Show me an actual indicator (on a meaningful time period) that suggests that Bitcoin is wavering on a leg up and I can show you 5 indicators that suggest that Bitcoin is wavering on a slip down.
Edit: And this:
cry me a river ......that was then this is now...
I bring up a very recent example of you extolling me to take a long position (at $520), trying to sell me on the whole 'this really is it', 'Its happening!' Kool-Aid, only for the market to slip back $100 at one point and still be $70 less than when you were strongly recommending that I take a long position.......
.........and the best condolencies you would be able to offer me is
"cry me a river, that was then and this is now"!?
Well, fuck you pal!
If you are new to EW analysis, no wonder you cant make a bullish chart. How do you judge DanV to be excellent if you are not an EW analyst? DanV thought we would bottom at 320 on the 10th May, and he has been wrong on every day trade since the 10th, whereas I have been buying at 430 since weeks ago. There is a valid count for a complete wave C. There is also a valid count for a primary off 339.
DanV said, whilst Bitcoin was charging back up towards $1000 (over $1000 on Gox) when absolutely everyone was bullish (including myself) that his charts told him that we would have to retest the lows. Your EW counts on the other hand were very wrong, for a very long time. I remember arguing with you on whether Bitcoin had stablised in the $800 range or not. Having watched some legacy DanV lectures on You Tube, I can confirm that when Bitcoin was at $800, DanV was very bearish dismissing out of hand suggestions by the hoardes of other EW analysts that Wave 4 had completed and Bitcoin was about to take its next leg up.
The thing with DanV (if you watch his videos other than quickly glance at his charts), is that he leaves options on the table. True, he speculated on a $300 floor for Bitcoin before Wave b of Primary Wave 4 commences. But he did also look at other possible alternatives such as what it would mean if $340 was the bottom for leg A (in his view, actually much more bearish on the long term). DanV might not even be proven wrong on his $300 bottom but even if he is, he offers a solid framework upon which amateur TA merchants like myself can base their market entry/exit points around.
Edit: Am off too look for your own EW charts. But seem to remember not being able to make heads nor tales of how you had applied your waves (i.e. not conforming to guidelines).
Take a spot 440 ... There is an old saying "being a Dick for a Tick"
i.e trying to get the best bottom or top high & you miss the movement ....I take this for a mid-long term investment
420 was a great price ..you have missed that
440 is a good price ...you want to miss that as well ?
470 is where MattheBearCat will have you come in which is a 12% higher buy in that you have left on the table or 12% more coinz
Which is 10% less than the $520 price point when you were last extolling me to take a long position. Sure, we went on to see $548, but also $420 and I would have been heavily underwater for most of the time since then.
Fuck that and fuck taking a significant position whilst in a trading range like this one. Do you think any large investors are taking positions and loading up there trucks here? Of course not, that is why the volume is so fkn abysmally low, so why should a small fry go in 100% here when the market makers aren't touching it? Take a position with less risk, and less chance of being tormented by the market, albeit for slightly less upside.
cry me a river ......that was then this is now...
Next you will be telling me of sub 300 prices and your bullshit EW crap that only works in a test tube
I use EW as a support indicator but trying to buy into teh whole magic grail EW & trade of them is a fools paradise
Own up to the fact that the market has capitulated & any buy in here is a sound investment ...I will enjoy watching this bull market for the next 6-9 months bear boy
And yeah i will be asking u when the sub 300 prices are coming...
I don't like the idea of doing anything because of panic.
Everything goes down to think things through. That's why everyone is here.
Everything goes down to think things through. That's why everyone is here.
If you are new to EW analysis, no wonder you cant make a bullish chart. How do you judge DanV to be excellent if you are not an EW analyst? DanV thought we would bottom at 320 on the 10th May, and he has been wrong on every day trade since the 10th, whereas I have been buying at 430 since weeks ago. There is a valid count for a complete wave C. There is also a valid count for a primary off 339.
DanV said, whilst Bitcoin was charging back up towards $1000 (over $1000 on Gox) when absolutely everyone was bullish (including myself) that his charts told him that we would have to retest the lows. Your EW counts on the other hand were very wrong, for a very long time. I remember arguing with you on whether Bitcoin had stablised in the $800 range or not. Having watched some legacy DanV lectures on You Tube, I can confirm that when Bitcoin was at $800, DanV was very bearish dismissing out of hand suggestions by the hoardes of other EW analysts that Wave 4 had completed and Bitcoin was about to take its next leg up.
The thing with DanV (if you watch his videos other than quickly glance at his charts), is that he leaves options on the table. True, he speculated on a $300 floor for Bitcoin before Wave b of Primary Wave 4 commences. But he did also look at other possible alternatives such as what it would mean if $340 was the bottom for leg A (in his view, actually much more bearish on the long term). DanV might not even be proven wrong on his $300 bottom but even if he is, he offers a solid framework upon which amateur TA merchants like myself can base their market entry/exit points around.
Edit: Am off too look for your own EW charts. But seem to remember not being able to make heads nor tales of how you had applied your waves (i.e. not conforming to guidelines).
Take a spot 440 ... There is an old saying "being a Dick for a Tick"
i.e trying to get the best bottom or top high & you miss the movement ....I take this for a mid-long term investment
420 was a great price ..you have missed that
440 is a good price ...you want to miss that as well ?
470 is where MattheBearCat will have you come in which is a 12% higher buy in that you have left on the table or 12% more coinz
Which is 10% less than the $520 price point when you were last extolling me to take a long position. Sure, we went on to see $548, but also $420 and I would have been heavily underwater for most of the time since then.
Fuck that and fuck taking a significant position whilst in a trading range like this one. Do you think any large investors are taking positions and loading up there trucks here? Of course not, that is why the volume is so fkn abysmally low, so why should a small fry go in 100% here when the market makers aren't touching it? Take a position with less risk, and less chance of being tormented by the market, albeit for slightly less upside.
Mat, have you got links to this DanV chaps TA and vids?
If you are new to EW analysis, no wonder you cant make a bullish chart. How do you judge DanV to be excellent if you are not an EW analyst? DanV thought we would bottom at 320 on the 10th May, and he has been wrong on every day trade since the 10th, whereas I have been buying at 430 since weeks ago. There is a valid count for a complete wave C. There is also a valid count for a primary off 339.
DanV said, whilst Bitcoin was charging back up towards $1000 (over $1000 on Gox) when absolutely everyone was bullish (including myself) that his charts told him that we would have to retest the lows. Your EW counts on the other hand were very wrong, for a very long time. I remember arguing with you on whether Bitcoin had stablised in the $800 range or not. Having watched some legacy DanV lectures on You Tube, I can confirm that when Bitcoin was at $800, DanV was very bearish dismissing out of hand suggestions by the hoardes of other EW analysts that Wave 4 had completed and Bitcoin was about to take its next leg up.
The thing with DanV (if you watch his videos other than quickly glance at his charts), is that he leaves options on the table. True, he speculated on a $300 floor for Bitcoin before Wave b of Primary Wave 4 commences. But he did also look at other possible alternatives such as what it would mean if $340 was the bottom for leg A (in his view, actually much more bearish on the long term). DanV might not even be proven wrong on his $300 bottom but even if he is, he offers a solid framework upon which amateur TA merchants like myself can base their market entry/exit points around.
Edit: Am off too look for your own EW charts. But seem to remember not being able to make heads nor tales of how you had applied your waves (i.e. not conforming to guidelines).
Take a spot 440 ... There is an old saying "being a Dick for a Tick"
i.e trying to get the best bottom or top high & you miss the movement ....I take this for a mid-long term investment
420 was a great price ..you have missed that
440 is a good price ...you want to miss that as well ?
470 is where MattheBearCat will have you come in which is a 12% higher buy in that you have left on the table or 12% more coinz
Which is 10% less than the $520 price point when you were last extolling me to take a long position. Sure, we went on to see $548, but also $420 and I would have been heavily underwater for most of the time since then.
Fuck that and fuck taking a significant position whilst in a trading range like this one. Do you think any large investors are taking positions and loading up there trucks here? Of course not, that is why the volume is so fkn abysmally low, so why should a small fry go in 100% here when the market makers aren't touching it? Take a position with less risk, and less chance of being tormented by the market, albeit for slightly less upside.
I am totally new to EW analysis. But have been following the excellent DanV.
Last night I tried to make a bullish EW chart which would have $340 low as the culmination of a Dec 2013 - April 2014 Wave 4. I couldn't do it. Any way that I reshuffled the wave counts in a way that conforms to EW guidelines resulted in the conclusion that there must be a lower low, or a retest of the $340 low at the very least....
I also couldn't get the short term bullish/long term bearish alternative to work either, whereby $340 represents the whole of Wave A, which would mean that we are now in the midst of Wave B, and could expect another leg up from here as soon as price breaks. If this were to be the case, then we could perhaps expect a run up to the $700 range before Wave B topped out and from there, it would be a long way down to considerably lower lows than $340 for the final Wave C of the Primary Wave 4.
If you are new to EW analysis, no wonder you cant make a bullish chart. How do you judge DanV to be excellent if you are not an EW analyst? DanV thought we would bottom at 320 on the 10th May, and he has been wrong on every day trade since the 10th, whereas I have been buying at 430 since weeks ago. There is a valid count for a complete wave C. There is also a valid count for a primary off 339.
Real panic buying will start at $465 and again at $480. At $520, the professional investors and traders will panic buy with big money.
If............. If............... IF!
I am totally new to EW analysis. But have been following the excellent DanV.
Last night I tried to make a bullish EW chart which would have $340 low as the culmination of a Dec 2013 - April 2014 Wave 4. I couldn't do it. Any way that I reshuffled the wave counts in a way that conforms to EW guidelines resulted in the conclusion that there must be a lower low, or a retest of the $340 low at the very least....
I also couldn't get the short term bullish/long term bearish alternative to work either, whereby $340 represents the whole of Wave A, which would mean that we are now in the midst of Wave B, and could expect another leg up from here as soon as price breaks. If this were to be the case, then we could perhaps expect a run up to the $700 range before Wave B topped out and from there, it would be a long way down to considerably lower lows than $340 for the final Wave C of the Primary Wave 4.
I doubt anyone is panic buying right now.
No.
Bored and waiting.
Me too brother, still got buy order in @ $360 - it's been almost 2 weeks waiting now.To be very honest, I am considering buying-in near Spot $440
How about you mate? Adjusting accordingly or shall we both wait it out together?
Take a spot 440 ... There is an old saying "being a Dick for a Tick"
i.e trying to get the best bottom or top high & you miss the movement ....I take this for a mid-long term investment
420 was a great price ..you have missed that
440 is a good price ...you want to miss that as well ?
470 is where MattheBearCat will have you come in which is a 12% higher buy in that you have left on the table or 12% more coinz
this fantasy sub 300 prices are peopel who smoke crack rocks...take a postion and sit back and relax ..you will feel a shitload better than you do now
I had 415 lows & 510 highs with a 450 average cost price...
Through myself & friends we have another 150k going onto stamp in teh next 3 days & i will be very happy with a 440 spot
I have another 50k from another investor who is waiting for a 415 (i see a 2-5% chance of him getting fileld at this price) buy in and like MatThebearCat I have said that we will review the position if we hit 470 and I will tell him point blank that he will miss the movement & he will want to panic buy @ 510
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