Topic: Who is buying above $13? Manipulation or Market? - page 3. (Read 8628 times)

Similar to 5grainsilver, I do believe that an online currency such as this one could have great potential, that is why I follow this.

However, I think it is crazy right now to invest in this currency at the currently high prices.

Also like 5grainsilver has said about the government seizing the funds, I have seen firsthand the government go after egold, or I think it was egold some years back. What surprised me was I would never have thought the government would or could go after egold, and I was really surprised about it. I can also see them easily go after bitcoin in the same way.
I heard of this Egold because the owners did a interview on a very political far right internet radio station, and they offered egold as a way to make donations. Paypal already banned this radio station. It was not weeks after this that the egold owners home were stormed by the Government. They claimed that they were doing nothing wrong also.

The government will not care about you saying it is not a currency etc. They will shut it down. Already paypal has stopped allowing payments for anything to do with bitcoin, and ebay is taking down listings. This is just the beginning.

Bitcoin is also full of hackers etc. I do not understand all the technical aspects of it, but how long until the whole system is somehow cracked? Is this even possible? How many people would use a currency that can easily be stolen from their computer as easily as your web browser gets full of spyware.

With all the current drawbacks, it is hard to understand people spending so much dollar per bitcoin, especially considering they were so cheap just a couple of months ago, and nothing has really changed.

The other problem I see with costing so much per bitcoin, is that nobody will actually want to deal with this. Yes I know it is divisble, but the currency should have been in the billions, not in the low millions. This would make it much more easily distributed, and more easily spendable.

I would considering it an investment in the low single digits at this point, but not $15 or $30.

With all of this said, it still surprises me that there are people out there who keep the price as high as it is. They continue to buy all the bitcoins that keep coming to the market. Especially considering that probably 90%+ of those bitcoins are not going to be used to buy anything. They just buy them to speculate.

I will be holding out to when I think it hits a fair price in the low single digits.  




 

I don't hate you. I think you're a clown. Opinions are like assholes. We all got 'em and they all stink. You have provided no original analysis, no insight, no reason to listen to anything you say except for the sheer entertainment value of it.  We've heard your arguments countless times before.

You don't trust me. You don't trust the exchanges, but you haven't given us  a SINGLE reason to trust you either.  I could argue your position better than you have, even though I don't believe it. You are a nobody and I'm going to have to ignore you unless you write something else entertaining. Step up your game.

While you are somewhat correct that emotion is the weaker argument, it is a valuable argument nonetheless. Aristotle recognized that there were three main modes of argument, being ethos, pathos, and logos.

You have tried to use your reputation as a long-time trader, ethos, as a standing for your argument concerning the possible success or failure of Bitcoin. Others have come back and made very good arguments, logos, concerning the rates of insurance and guarantees and how it would be financially unlikely to create a better Bitcoin clone. Both sides have argued the various pros and cons of a government takedown, again logos.

But the reason that people get upset, the reason that they get emotionally involved with Bitcoin, besides just having money invested in it, is that it can be and is to many people an ideological revolution. It's putting the power of money back in the hands of the little folks instead of "representatives" that don't really listen. It's being tired of taking what most folks see as ridiculous fees, terms, and service agreements from those "insurers" that some people so desperately want. That, good sir, is the pathos argument. Its strength depends on the audience, and that audience is growing larger with each passing day as the typical models of economics and finances cease to work for some people.

So I have to trust you to return my collateral.  I don't trust you anymore than you trust me.  This market is not tradeable in any safe way.  I know you will all disagree with me even though your main exchange just got hacked and shut down like a week ago.

I will stick with mainstream products and exchanges.  Then my only risk comes from bad trades.  Here I have to factor in the risk of the exchange vanishing or Joe schmoe on the message board not returning my collateral when the bitcoin collapses.

Why so much hate though?  I can intelligently defend my product without getting upset when others view it negatively.  Emotion is the mark of amateurs and manias.

You're not foolin' anybody with that excuse. No exchange is perfect and no investment is risk-free. Unless you have skin in the game, nobody cares what you think. You're just another Mr. McGoo yelling at his TV set. You risk nothing. You are insignificant.
Prove me wrong. PM me and I will even rent you my own coin to short-sell, but I'll need collateral because I think you're gutless and full of shit.

I told NoScript in FF to allow all scripts on campbx.com and text displacement is gone. Also the links will work if you allow this site to run there scripts

OK I checked this site out too.  It looks even worse than the other exchange.  The front page has text misplaced.  It looks worse than a website I could have made with a wysiwyg editor.  It answers none of the important questions an exchange needs to answer.  Links don't work.  If the frontend is so unprofessional, why would anyone trust the backend or financial security of the exchange?  

On a similiar note to my last post, I acknowledge that bitcoin could probably survive government intervention.  The problem is that exchanges could not.  And service offering a way to turn bitcoins into dollars would be really easy to shut down.  That would make bitcoins unusable for most economic activity.  

Your primary objection in that post seems to be "Its not going to happen, because Governments will stop it by making it illegal or inventing something better" ?

They will probably try at some stage (hence the example of China banning Skype).

I give them about a 10% chance of success in the long term..  
maybe a 50% chance of short-term supression/hold back if they go all out.

The "Authorities Winning" ?  Very Unlikely.

BitTorrent, Drugs, Piracy, Copyright, Alcohol, Gambling, Sex, Porn, Weapons, Budgets etc etc

Name *1* thing that a government has succesfully managed to stop when the people wanted it ?

Taxation ?  No problem, Income Taxes are a stupid idea anyway.. The paperwork required is ridiculous
If necessary, Taxation will shift into property, consumption and other tangible things..
as someone once said "You cant hide Real Estate in Cyberspace"

A competitor to Bitcoin ?  What are they going to offer ?  Safety ?  
Sure, for a 10% (more?) premium you can have that.  Thats what credit cards, Paypal etc do..  
People still give discounts for *cash* however.  Bitcoin is digital cash..

If you want safety, pay for and use another layer of "insurance" (which is all chargebacks really are) on top..  
It wont be too long before "Coinpal" starts for people to deal with unknown entities on "Coinbay" and the like

The fact that these services arent entrenched yet means nothing.  They will come - Im guessing the next 6-12 months if not sooner.

Bankcoin will have lower fees maybe ?  Not likely, You think they're going to build a 10 Terahash distributed computing network out of their own pocket (and pay the power bill ?) and not want to recoup that cost ?  *and* keep it up to date with constantly evolving power just to stay ahead of the worlds combined home-computers aggregate power ?

The existing Telecoms would love to have a product that competes cost effectively with Skype and makes them a profit..  Havent seen one yet..  and theyre not short of billions to try if they could see an opening.

OK Enough thumping..   I think understand your new objection..  "The powers that be wont let it happen" ?

Time will tell, but I really dont think they will have much a choice myself.

Go to campbx.com and buy your puts, Pilgrim. Put your money where your mouth is. You can short on margin, even. Do it. I dare you. Otherwise, you are just flapping your labia.

Thanks for the info.  I'm sure he is a very smart person, but what are his experiences in running an exchange?  I would guess none, based on the website.  I would like to hear his answers to some of my questions especially regarding the handling of customer funds. 

You make some good points.   Believe me, as a merchant I do see the value of bitcoin.  My main point here is that there is a very real possibility that bitcoin could become worthless in the near future.  Cryptocurrency is an amazing new idea, I will give you that.  However, the fact is that governments run this world.  That is not going to change.  They could shut down bitcoin if they wanted to.  Do you really think they are going to let a P2P "currency" flourish?   They could track down those that are mining or processing blocks and fine them.  Seize their equipment and assets, including bitcoins.  They could make it illegal to own bitcoins.  Add some sort of legal risk to the equation and the bitcoin will collapse. 

Right now 99% of demand for bitcoins is speculation and black market related.  Name me one non-black or grey market product I can get a better deal on by converting real money to bitcoins and then purchasing in bitcoins?  I know the idea is that in the future the market will reach a critical mass and a real economy will be present.  The problem is, the day that that happens is the day the government shuts it down.  They want their taxes.  They want to track the flow of money so they can prevent money laundering. 

The bitcoin technology is open source.  A government or visa or a bank could take the technology and use it to implement their own system.  They could find some way to back it to remove the risk of price fluctuation.  They could make it easy and secure to convert back and forth to fiat currency.  It would be taxed, regulated, safe and legal.  That would crash the bitcoin.   

But back to present day reality.  This bubble is fueled by speculation and illegal activity.  New bitcoins come on the market every day.  The money will dry up and the bitcoin will go right back to where it came from.

fixed.

It's run by a doctorate-level MIT professor who has also been with bitcoin pretty much since the start.

You can find him on the forum under the name Nefario, he's one of the moderators.
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?action=profile;u=3046

what is a Fax machine? some kind of gaming system?

Granting for now your hypothetical experience in market trading..

How many new products have you seen come on the market that have *anything* in common with Bitcoin ?

A Open Source, Cryptographically Secure, Decentralised, virtually-unstoppable, P2P World Spanning trade item that runs on Any operating system, computers, phones and has *unalterable* novel financial principles different to any currency in the history of the world hard coded into it ?

It wasnt even *possible* as little as 10 years ago..  Without widespread broadband internet and P2P networking, it wouldnt even get off the ground.   With those new technologies powering it however, the sky is the limit.

Any you think it will follow normal market patterns like any other pork-belly or megacorp-inc shares ?  

Ever hear of a disruptive technology ?  

Skype maybe ?  
Invented out of nowhere in 2003 (using that same P2P tech),
banned in China in 2005, Sold for 2.6 *Billion* in the same year
100 million users reached in 2006, just 3 years after startup.
sold again for 8.5 billion to microsoft, with 660 million users in 2011.
- from 0 to 8.5 billion dollars, 0 to 660 million users
.. in just 8 years.
.. and what is it ?   A cheaper to use Telephone Program.

What do you think Microsoft would pay to buy "Linux" (if they could) ?

And here we have an un-buyable, open source, P2P powered "currency" that could potentially revolutionise world-trade and you think your market experience says "its not going to happen" ?

Right.  Want to buy a Fax Machine ? - I hear they're the hot new tech for forward thinkers like yourself.

Basically edward is a troll and admitted it

"active real trader"? lawl

Ah now this right here is classic loser trader mentality.  I don't mean that as an insult.  If you find yourself agreeing with this quote, you really need to do some research on how markets and bubbles work. 

GLBSE is not a real exchange.  There is no volume.  It is not regulated by any government organization.  My expectation of receiving payout should my contract become profitable is pretty damn low.  The site owner has a link where you can donate to him lol.  That is not a professional exchange.  What are the qualifications of the person running it?  Who is running it?  Where is it based?  On the about me page it says the following:

"We Are The Market

Buy, sell, raise, lend, borrow, invest, the single market that does it all. Keep your bitcoin in one market, and instantly switch between different assets, currencies, shares, and bonds to take advantage of the largest bitcoin market.

    * Issue shares to raise capital
    * Pay dividends to shareholders
    * Put resolutions to shareholders and get their vote
    * Issue and sell bonds
    * Borrow and lend to the market
    * Make and recieve loan repayments
    * Issue futures contracts
    * Meta-trade on non listed companies (on other exchanges)
    * And trade all of the above with other traders on the market


Start Trading Now!

The exchange is currently under testing, but is being used, you may use at your own risk but be warned,you could lose your shirt ;-)"


That says nothing, except that the person running it is building this as they go and have no idea what they are doing. 


The fact that these are not the first questions people are asking when this site advertises, just shows how naive the bitcoin community is.  Here are some more good questions:

Who holds my deposit?  Who guarantees it?  Are my funds used for operating expenses?  (I bet they are)  Are my funds held in a segregated account?  In what currency?  How is that account being managed to hedge against currency and bitcoin value changes? 



You might not like what I am saying, but to completely write it off is ignorant.  I have a LOT of experience in gambling, trading, and business.  I've seen a lot of bubbles, I've seen people act CRAZY when they come into a lot of money or lose a lot in a short time.  Be smart.  Learn from the mistakes of others.  People behave in repeating patterns, especially in crowds and markets.  Have you studied the history of bubbles?  Might be a good idea.  If you are one of the ones that has come into a lot of money from this, be smart and diversify.  Acknowledge that there is a real chance that bitcoins could go down the toilet and take some of that money and put it into a different type of investment or business.  I'm sure the smart ones have already quietly done that. 

OK enough good advice.  I know most of you will completely write me off as an ignorant whatever you think I am.  Most people have to learn the hard way, that is just how people are.