Topic: Who wants to share some bear? - page 2. (Read 4091 times)

I must admit that it could just have been a correction. A serious bear market like 2011 only happened once. All the other parabolic rises were followed by a correction and shortly thereafter continued their rise.

However, the rise of 2011 was the strongest, and the rise of 2013 the second strongest. The higher you go, the higher the chance of falling long. So this 2013 rise is certainly a very good candidate for another long bear market.

I feel resistance when people claim this is just a correction because the crash from 266 to 50 over 2 days, cannot be called a correction. Such price move is called a crash. And since then it's been lower high's, which also corresponds with a crash.  (where do you get the higher highs from? 266/160/150/...)

This is very difficult I find.

Thanks for sharing Very interesting to hear how you also look at your different parts. Has your gut been mostly right or wrong in the past? What about your intellectual side?

Yes, I think many expect a 2011 repeat, and in that case indeed it will go down, but since so many expect it, it might not happen. Which would mean trending sideways. A relaunch is possible, and part of me is afraid of that, but thinking as rational as possible I agree with you. It had all the indicators of a bubble, and it just does not happen that a bubble crashes so hard, only to relaunch soon after.

The actual usage of the currency, the hashrate, the amount of services lags now way behind the valuation of the currency. It will take a year to catch up.

From a risk/reward perspective, as well as from a valuation perspective, as well as from a technical perspective, this looks bad.

That does not mean it cannot happen, rationally one must admit that it only takes one dedicated billionaire to relaunch this bubble. It's just that I estimate the chances low so it's a bad bet to take.  

  thanks! She's a tiger! :-)

In contrast to that bull you guys showed!

The beast went to sleep already!


Goddamn that lady is a kickboxer!   
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONhGfJS7LmI
 

Here are some more pictures of her if you want. You can thank me later.

Hmm. Seems like we just saw an attempt to break away upwards from the trend, but that it failed.

I am not too good at that technical analysis, but I figure this might mean that there is to be a real breakout, it has to be downwards.

On the other hand, there have been bought a lot of coins lately for transfer to other sites after the Dwolla incident(keeping the prices artificially bloated?).
Since it's a bit hard to get dollars out of MtGox, this might mean that those dollars might be burning in their respective pockets.

This!

We had growth that looked exponential on an exponential chart, with media attention and uninformed investors showing up in the last part of that growth.

That's why I feel it's worthwhile to take the bubble interpretation seriously. Obviously, it's also possible that it was never a bubble pattern per se, which is the contention that my gut is making. But I don't trust my gut.

If I look at the 6 month chart I don't really see a bubble that has popped but a rather large correction that took place. The whole bubble theory and terminology like 'despair' and 'return to normal' do not apply in case of a correction. The higher lows and higher highs we're seeing point more to a correction than a bubble deflating in my view. Just my opinion ofcourse, the future will tell us what it will be.

There's something pretty interesting about this statement.

I mean, yes. Compared to much of Bitcoin's history, and especially compared to 2013, a move from $120 to $130 is fairly small.

But if you saw that kind of change in, say, forex, the expectation is completely different. That's almost 10%! That's a big move!

I think I'd take "trend[ing] sideways for half a year" over a lot of the alternatives. Value-confidence is good for Bitcoin, and attracts the right sort of new blood.

Hmm. If you want to hear what makes me feel bearish, it's this: there was a bubble, and the bubble has popped, but we haven't visited proper despair yet. The worst it's gotten so far has been the immediate post-pop selloff. Looking at exponential graphs, and trying to chart things according to 2011's lessons, we should be heading all the way down to the historical zone-of-confidence at $10-13.

Now, the math could be wrong. Past performance never guarantees future results. No, the real bearish indicator is that I have this math and my gut is totally ignoring it. My gut looks at the $50, and instead of thinking "bull trap" it thinks "that's the floor". My gut looks at the current market and thinks not "when will the other shoe drop so that we can leave the bubble behind" but "we've already left the bubble behind".

The fact that this is my gut reaction fits too well with the classic "return to normal" bubble phase for my intellectual side to dismiss it.

Based on that interpretation, the current bullish movement can continue only to about ~$175-80 before faltering again, and creating bearish movement to below the $50 lows of the pop (targeting either $30 or $10-13 as the nadir).

TL;DR: My own bullish sentiment is the best bearish indicator I have, and looking closely at it makes it seem like an uncomfortably credible one.

lol Gotja

She looks beautiful

Not bad. You need a few more buzzwords.

"Pretty obvious it's a dead cat bounce"

"Inverse reverse rainbow candles, clearly a downtrend"

"I had a neckbeard in 2011 and I started regrowing it a few months ago. Same neckbeard, same long slow slide"

"MtGox will end up Goxing us" (okay can't argue that one)

"I see 3 triangles, two Bull Pennants and my mom's ivory broach, we're headed down!"

"BubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleB ubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubble"

That about covers it. 

No, it lacks credibility 

Try again, somewhere deep inside of you there must be a bear. Try to connect.

Yes, a bear thread with people who think it will go to $30-$50!

Yeah, we're totally gonna see $30 this summer

  

I'm soooo bearish. "Long, slow, slide, guys."

Am I doinitrite?

 

I am really not sure, but this seems like a ledge, and prices may fall very quickly if there is some high sellout.
I doubt it will go over 140 now, but if it does it may signal a new bubble.

My take on a healthy price would be sub $100, more likely close to $50, but it seems like the market is filled with quite a few overly optimistic people after it has traded at more than $150 for a few days in the recent past.

I really don't see the support for the current price, but I figure that the higher/faster it goes - The more it will fall back and I can get my buy-orders filled before the next peak.

Just discovered nice bitcoin song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcRxeYO1YPs&noredirect=1

Ofcourse bitcoin remains the future and I have sufficient to not miss out but I am following SlipperySlope on the short term bear case:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/slipperyslopes-bubble-collapse-journal-175010

That's nice to hear

Feeling all warm again with some bear company

So, how volatile can this be? $150?

You never know, but I think the downside is quite a bit larger than the upside ATM.

Then your inner bear is not strong. Price is volatile.

Very bottom is not reached the day after.

A black swan is needed to get this bubble relaunched, not the other way around.

A bit too early for that I think... Don't worry, the time will come!

I have a gut feeling that things will kick off over summer.