You are talking about the wrong asset.
Bitcoin is not in a bubble.
Stocks and precious metals are.
Bitcoin is not in a bubble.
Stocks and precious metals are.
Where did the blue go?
ran out of blue ink. Just bought some more with bitcoins :-)
Topic: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal (Read 24785 times)
Where did the blue go?
ran out of blue ink. Just bought some more with bitcoins :-)
You are talking about the wrong asset.
Bitcoin is not in a bubble.
Stocks and precious metals are.
Bitcoin is not in a bubble.
Stocks and precious metals are.
Where did the blue go?
You are talking about the wrong asset.
Bitcoin is not in a bubble.
Stocks and precious metals are.
Bitcoin is not in a bubble.
Stocks and precious metals are.
The bubble collapse has been stalled by liquidity on Mt. Gox and the continuing distribution of ASICs. I've said a million times now, we will not find the durable bottom until the profitability is squeezed out of mining, hashing peaks and consistent downward selling pressure of new coins can be weighed against the markets sustainable purchasing power. Other exchanges have been moving horizontally on low volume and only move up to keep the arbitrage gap between them and Gox in the 10%-20% range.
sr. member
Activity: 294
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Good call Odalv
Thanks for bringing to my attention. Indeed he called the rally very well. In fact, he was even more precise.
Odalv, added your great call to my list of track records.
Good call Odalv
Have updated SlipperySlopes's long term chart here,
The most recent bit doesn't look like its read the script to me
The most recent bit doesn't look like its read the script to me
In January 2014
Have updated SlipperySlopes's long term chart here,
The most recent bit doesn't look like its read the script to me
The most recent bit doesn't look like its read the script to me
So we're charting weekly candles now. Guess the daily charts don't look similar enough anymore...
I've been saying the same thing pretty much over and over again since about May: I don't claim to know how long the correction/bubble deflation will take eventually, maybe it will as drawn out as in 2011, but pretending the post-peak price development in 2013 is identical or nearly identical to 2011 is delusional.
There were, from day 1, substantial differences, and it didn't take a genius to see them.
Please note: that doesn't mean the correction is over. For all I know, we might go down again, to hit a new capitulation bottom. I'm not predicting the future here, I'm just stating the obvious (well, obvious to the unbiased observer): 2011 and 2013 look pretty different. How to interpret that is another matter.
Anyway, here's the updated chart. Still essentially the same, huh? /s
I've been saying the same thing pretty much over and over again since about May: I don't claim to know how long the correction/bubble deflation will take eventually, maybe it will as drawn out as in 2011, but pretending the post-peak price development in 2013 is identical or nearly identical to 2011 is delusional.
There were, from day 1, substantial differences, and it didn't take a genius to see them.
Please note: that doesn't mean the correction is over. For all I know, we might go down again, to hit a new capitulation bottom. I'm not predicting the future here, I'm just stating the obvious (well, obvious to the unbiased observer): 2011 and 2013 look pretty different. How to interpret that is another matter.
Anyway, here's the updated chart. Still essentially the same, huh? /s
That lower trendline on slipperyslopes' chart has provided strong support several times, but even so there's nothing to say we have to fall to it in the timescales you're looking at.
Time will tell I guess.
Time will tell I guess.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
91 days after the April 10 peak
Clearly this bubble collapse is becoming more similar to the 2011 collapse than was the case a month ago.
Speculative financial bubble theory says that a collapse takes about the same time as the speculative inflation. Initially, I believed that this bubble started in January, but another interpretation of the price chart allows for the bubble to start last October - a six month inflation. A six month collapse would end in the September - October timeframe. I drew the long term support trendline in green, and added the support line of the June 2011 peak, and drew a black trendline extrapolating the current decline.
Evidence and experience drawn from the comparison of this bubble with 2011, and bubble theory makes me believe that the bottom will occur in September or October. The price then should be above $32 and below $50. The lines intersect at approximately $40.
Assumptions include the continuation of the two year long term support rate of growth. If the bitcoin economy rate of exponential growth has decreased, the the collapse could well undershoot the target. The previous peak of $32 should provide support according to Elliot Wave Theory. Bubble theory, on the other hand, allows for prices to collapse back to pre-bubble levels, e.g. $10.
Clearly this bubble collapse is becoming more similar to the 2011 collapse than was the case a month ago.
Speculative financial bubble theory says that a collapse takes about the same time as the speculative inflation. Initially, I believed that this bubble started in January, but another interpretation of the price chart allows for the bubble to start last October - a six month inflation. A six month collapse would end in the September - October timeframe. I drew the long term support trendline in green, and added the support line of the June 2011 peak, and drew a black trendline extrapolating the current decline.
Evidence and experience drawn from the comparison of this bubble with 2011, and bubble theory makes me believe that the bottom will occur in September or October. The price then should be above $32 and below $50. The lines intersect at approximately $40.
Assumptions include the continuation of the two year long term support rate of growth. If the bitcoin economy rate of exponential growth has decreased, the the collapse could well undershoot the target. The previous peak of $32 should provide support according to Elliot Wave Theory. Bubble theory, on the other hand, allows for prices to collapse back to pre-bubble levels, e.g. $10.
The expected duration of the collapse is indeed important. Looking at bitcoin the collapse in 2011 took 5 months. How long took the exponential bubble inflation? Your chart above shows it was only 2 months in 2011, in April and June. So the collapse took considerably longer than the period of exponential rise. This seems to have been true also for the smaller bubbles. The 2011 november-december exponential rise took 2 months also, the following correction took 5 months before hitting the long term trendline again. The next exponential rise was from June till July 2012, also just 2 months, after which it corrected/flattened for 5 months too.
What's different in the recent exponential rise is that it went up for 3 months before correcting. Which is 50% longer as the previous ones. Considering corrections took more than double the time of the rise in the past (250% longer), that would bring the current correction at 3 months x 250% = 7.5 months, or around november-december. By then however the trendline will be above $50. And since it tends to go up strongly after the bottom is reached, never to see that price again, I think it will be important to buy at such time.
Fingers crossed history repeats
or maybe it was never a bubble at all, maybe bitcoins are just slowly rising up to find their true value !
As Slipperyslope showed in his last post your new channel would only be valid if the adoption rate would increase above the historical, already exponential, adoption curve. Chances for this are extremely low. In fact chances are higher for the adoption rate to slow down as the low hanging fruit has been harvested already and more resistence of adoption to be expected.
Even if the historical adoption curve remains constant, meaning a continuation of the exponential rate of adoption, price will stay within the channel Slipperyslope drew in his last post, and this price would still likely bottom out at $40-$50. If rate of adoption slowed it would likely bottom out lower.
Even if the historical adoption curve remains constant, meaning a continuation of the exponential rate of adoption, price will stay within the channel Slipperyslope drew in his last post, and this price would still likely bottom out at $40-$50. If rate of adoption slowed it would likely bottom out lower.
Not sure if price is so tightly correlated to adoption as that. There are other factors that govern price. If demand kicks off existing users will pay more, doesn't need new users. However if price rises enough, new users will start flooding in, in a positive feedback loop.
My channel makes me wonder if the bubble might not fully deflate but instead re-ignite (into an even bigger bubble). Unlikely perhaps, but considering the way the world economy is right now maybe not too unlikely ( western economies burdened with debt, central banks printing money, bail-ins being legislated etc ). The last bubble popped because of crapy MtGox infrastructure, maybe there is latent potential for the price to skyrocket even more ?
I'm not saying this will happen, all I'm saying is i joined some dots on the chart and spotted what looks like an upwards rising channel, which I'll be monitoring over the next weeks..
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Bubble collapse finished now ??
I'm wondering if this is the start of a new up channel,
1 year log chart MtGox, bitcoins vs USD, from my blog.
As Slipperyslope showed in his last post your new channel would only be valid if the adoption rate would increase above the historical, already exponential, adoption curve. Chances for this are extremely low. In fact chances are higher for the adoption rate to slow down as the low hanging fruit has been harvested already and more resistence of adoption to be expected.
Even if the historical adoption curve remains constant, meaning a continuation of the exponential rate of adoption, price will stay within the channel Slipperyslope drew in his last post, and this price would still likely bottom out at $40-$50. If rate of adoption slowed it would likely bottom out lower.
Bubble collapse finished now ??
I'm wondering if this is the start of a new up channel,
1 year log chart MtGox, bitcoins vs USD, from my blog.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
So looking forward to your next post SlipperySlope 
Is there a certain activity you are waiting for to the upside and downside?
When would you change your opinion that we are still in a collapse?
Is there a certain activity you are waiting for to the upside and downside?
When would you change your opinion that we are still in a collapse?
Nice post. Thanks!
So it's a game of chance what your candles look like and wether or not they filter the outlier.
Exactly. There are many methods one can use to filter out outliers, but candlestick bodies are just blind guesses.
Its a game of chance after all, thats true. But I think chance works in our favour this way because sticking to candle bodies throws out the unlikely events and make better predictions based on that element of chance.
Let me make an example:
There is an arbitrary time period, lets say: 1 hour in which price action happens during a usual day in the Bitcoin markets. 40 minutes of this hour you can expect little to no action but 9 minutes moderate price action and maybe 1 minute you will have a whale move the market quite heavily. This means there is a 40:60 chance that the hourly candle closes during little market action times which would represent the mayority of this 1 hr period, there is a 9:60 chance the candle closes during moderate price action and a chance of 1:60 that the candle closes exactly during that minute when price is at its most volatile. As you can see though, it is quite unlikely that we will have a candle closing out of the ordinary. So candlestick bodies are no "blind guesses" after all but an acurate representation of distributed chance.
@ molecular:
I think you are right in that a weighted average is the best way to filter out the noise. Im not sure which indicator provides the best signals though. Ill look further into it
So it's a game of chance what your candles look like and wether or not they filter the outlier.
Exactly. There are many methods one can use to filter out outliers, but candlestick bodies are just blind guesses.
thanks for the example, Spekulatius.
You haven't changed my mind, though: I still think a weighted average is much better suited to "filter out noise" (not sure you even want that, though).
In your example, if you happen to have that extremely high point (the "outlier" (still debatable wether or not that should or should not be used, but that I cannot judge because I don't know zip about TA)) right at the open/close, you will have it in your candles, too... "unfiltered". So it's a game of chance what your candles look like and wether or not they filter the outlier.
You haven't changed my mind, though: I still think a weighted average is much better suited to "filter out noise" (not sure you even want that, though).
In your example, if you happen to have that extremely high point (the "outlier" (still debatable wether or not that should or should not be used, but that I cannot judge because I don't know zip about TA)) right at the open/close, you will have it in your candles, too... "unfiltered". So it's a game of chance what your candles look like and wether or not they filter the outlier.
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