Why $13,000 was unsustainable. - page 2.

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on August 13, 2019, 12:42:14 AM

OP, use the fundamental approach to understand that it's plenty sustainable. But it will take time. Bitcoin, in a higher price, doesn't only attract "money" as a store of wealth/investment. It attracts capital for infrastructure too, and have it ready for the next wave.

The infrastructure does not "catch up" in time to make it sustainable. Bitcoin just passed $11k on the way down again. 13k was not sustainable at all.

If you would like to know how I knew this as it was happening please check out my crypto masterclass:

https://www.amsinger.org/information-request

Aaron

Wind_FURY

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OP, use the fundamental approach to understand that it's plenty sustainable. But it will take time. Bitcoin, in a higher price, doesn't only attract "money" as a store of wealth/investment. It attracts capital for infrastructure too, and have it ready for the next wave.

cocoadreamboy

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Bitcoin has still not risen past the peak of $13,800 or the $13,000 I stated before. It has thrashed and tried, but it has been a month and bitcoin has not gone past that, and appears to be in full contraction.

I use financial analysis of miners to understand these situations. I explain financial analysis on my site:

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

deisik

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Quote from: el kaka22 on August 01, 2019, 02:06:06 AM

Quote from: playboy654 on August 01, 2019, 01:01:59 AM

Cryptocurrencies cannot be compared to the product like cars maybe you can compare it with stocks

I guess no stock got the supply mechanism for every 10 minutes. Commodities like gold or crudeoil also not having regular supply mechanism. This is the reason why traditional stock or forex analysts are failing when they try to predict the markets of bitcoins and other cryptos

I tend to disagree with this view

Bitcoin indeed has a "supply mechanism" built in which adds new coins to the net balance every 10 minutes or so. But this supply is absolutely predictable and has been so ages since day one. In other words, the market can live with that and effectively price the new coins in. If the supply of new coinage was completely random and arbitrary in both amount and time, it would likely heavily affect the price dynamic but since it is not, it doesn't

The validity of this assumption can be seen with altcoins such as Litecoin which has a similar supply pattern (in fact, a potentially more disruptive one). And even if it is less stable and more volatile than Bitcoin on its own, we still don't see the disruptive effects of the constant increase in the coin base as there are simply none

el kaka22

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Quote from: cocoadreamboy on July 10, 2019, 03:33:04 PM

If $13,000 was maintained throughout the year it would take $8.5 billion of new unflinching holders to sustain that price. The price just took a dump to $11,760 for this reason.

Your reason cannot be true as all the miners are not selling immediately right after mining rewards. Most of the miners are holding their mining rewards for future. You may simply verify this by checking on miners' addy. By your logic, bitcoin was able to peak up to $20k with the same reason I am mentioning. Till now, $13k was not sustainable due to lack of enough new investors. Agree or not, only big investors and financial houses are moving bitcoin prices to next support or resistance levels and common people do buy or sell in between price levels.

Quote from: playboy654 on August 01, 2019, 01:01:59 AM

Cryptocurrencies cannot be compared to the product like cars maybe you can compare it with stocks

I guess no stock got the supply mechanism for every 10 minutes. Commodities like gold or crudeoil also not having regular supply mechanism. This is the reason why traditional stock or forex analysts are failing when they try to predict the markets of bitcoins and other cryptos.

playboy654

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Quote from: cocoadreamboy on July 29, 2019, 10:40:05 AM

Quote from: SaShiRaJaVu on July 28, 2019, 10:38:35 AM

The most important data you are missing here is that the number of bitcoins that is being sold in the open market that is being created by the miners, i bet you will not find any, so these sort of calculation does not give you anything substantial data when it comes to the market price of bitcoin.
The price of bitcoin does not have any relation with the production or mining cost of bitcoin, the only reason why the price of bitcoin was not sustainable above $13k would be that the price will not shoot up all the time and you need to have a correction to have a sustained growth Tongue

.

So miners pay electricity, facilities, and equipment in order to not sell a product. Do car manufactures make their cars and keep them from being sold on the market?

Completely illogical.

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

Cryptocurrencies cannot be compared to the product like cars maybe you can compare it with stocks how long you are keeping the stock the profit you are going to be then prophet also is going to be high. Mining also can be more profitable when you can hold the coin until the Bull run begins.

deisik

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Quote from: cocoadreamboy on July 29, 2019, 03:39:02 PM

Quote from: deisik on July 29, 2019, 12:50:32 PM

As always, the devil is in paying precious attention to detail

Do cars appreciate over time? I'd rather say no unless you have to wait like 50 years till some exclusive models obtain real value. This is definitely not what car manufacturers want. But is it the same with miners? Again, I should say no as bitcoins do tend to appreciate over time and in less than 50 years, so it does actually make sense to keep at least some of the reward and not sell it in its entirety. Long story short, your analogy is heavily flawed, up to a point where it stops being an analogy at all

It costs money to make a bitcoin. If the miners don't sell how with they recoup their costs? Also bitcoin does not always appreciate. Ask the people that bought at 19k or 13k how well bitcoin appreciates

Obviously, it is not about people who bought Bitcoin

As it is more about those who mine it, i.e. miners, and I'm very skeptical about the costs of production anywhere close to 19k or even 13k. Indeed, it costs money to make a bitcoin but if the production costs are around 5k on average (which is an accepted figure), then at prices over or around 10k miners can only sell 1 bitcoin out of 2 mined and still remain profitable en masse, while keeping the second bitcoin to themselves (which also adds to price growth)

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: deisik on July 29, 2019, 12:50:32 PM

As always, the devil is in paying precious attention to detail

Do cars appreciate over time? I'd rather say no unless you have to wait like 50 years till some exclusive models obtain real value. This is definitely not what car manufacturers want. But is it the same with miners? Again, I should say no as bitcoins do tend to appreciate over time and in less than 50 years, so it does actually make sense to keep at least some of the reward and not sell it in its entirety. Long story short, your analogy is heavily flawed, up to a point where it stops being an analogy at all

It costs money to make a bitcoin. If the miners don't sell how with they recoup their costs? Also bitcoin does not always appreciate. Ask the people that bought at 19k or 13k how well bitcoin appreciates.

My system alerts people when the price is low compared to the creation cost, and when it is high compared to the creation cost. I let people know when the whales are buying, selling, or holding based on logic.

You are promoting an idea that miners have no need for money, and that they will hold their bitcoin simply to see massive price increases. You are even assuming that miners want to maintain sky high prices even when faced with low liquidity and extreme volatility.

Perhaps you should check out my site, and actually read about how bitcoin works:

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

deisik

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Quote from: cocoadreamboy on July 29, 2019, 10:40:05 AM

Quote from: SaShiRaJaVu on July 28, 2019, 10:38:35 AM

The most important data you are missing here is that the number of bitcoins that is being sold in the open market that is being created by the miners, i bet you will not find any, so these sort of calculation does not give you anything substantial data when it comes to the market price of bitcoin.
The price of bitcoin does not have any relation with the production or mining cost of bitcoin, the only reason why the price of bitcoin was not sustainable above $13k would be that the price will not shoot up all the time and you need to have a correction to have a sustained growth Tongue

.

So miners pay electricity, facilities, and equipment in order to not sell a product. Do car manufactures make their cars and keep them from being sold on the market?

Completely illogical

As always, the devil is in paying precious attention to detail

Do cars appreciate over time? I'd rather say no unless you have to wait like 50 years till some exclusive models obtain real value. This is definitely not what car manufacturers want. But is it the same with miners? Again, I should say no as bitcoins do tend to appreciate over time and in less than 50 years, so it does actually make sense to keep at least some of the reward and not sell it in its entirety. Long story short, your analogy is heavily flawed, up to a point where it stops being an analogy at all

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: SaShiRaJaVu on July 28, 2019, 10:38:35 AM

The most important data you are missing here is that the number of bitcoins that is being sold in the open market that is being created by the miners, i bet you will not find any, so these sort of calculation does not give you anything substantial data when it comes to the market price of bitcoin.
The price of bitcoin does not have any relation with the production or mining cost of bitcoin, the only reason why the price of bitcoin was not sustainable above $13k would be that the price will not shoot up all the time and you need to have a correction to have a sustained growth Tongue

.

So miners pay electricity, facilities, and equipment in order to not sell a product. Do car manufactures make their cars and keep them from being sold on the market?

Completely illogical.

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

SaShiRaJaVu

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Quote from: cocoadreamboy on July 10, 2019, 03:33:04 PM

When bitcoin's price is $13,000 it would take $23.4 million per day of new LONGTERM investment to maintain that price simply to pay out the 1800bitcoin/day that miners produce. If $13,000 was maintained throughout the year it would take $8.5 billion of new unflinching holders to sustain that price. The price just took a dump to $11,760 for this reason.

Personally I think $13,000 laughably high. I think this because I use numbers and financial data to understand bitcoin. I do not wish. I do not hope. I know what a good price to buy bitcoin is because I understand the risk based on the creation cost.

The most important data you are missing here is that the number of bitcoins that is being sold in the open market that is being created by the miners, i bet you will not find any, so these sort of calculation does not give you anything substantial data when it comes to the market price of bitcoin.
The price of bitcoin does not have any relation with the production or mining cost of bitcoin, the only reason why the price of bitcoin was not sustainable above $13k would be that the price will not shoot up all the time and you need to have a correction to have a sustained growth Tongue

.

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: Naida_BR on July 27, 2019, 12:59:00 PM

13k was an unsustainable level because this increase was not absurbed from the whole market.
We didn't see a respective increase in altcoins' price thus it was eminent that the drop is going to happen shorty. I hope that many people saw that and didn't buy when the price was on top.

No offense, but that is absolute hogwash. Bitcoin dropped because the alts didn't increase? That is hardly an accurate statement.

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

Naida_BR

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Quote from: cocoadreamboy on July 10, 2019, 03:33:04 PM

When bitcoin's price is $13,000 it would take $23.4 million per day of new LONGTERM investment to maintain that price simply to pay out the 1800bitcoin/day that miners produce. If $13,000 was maintained throughout the year it would take $8.5 billion of new unflinching holders to sustain that price. The price just took a dump to $11,760 for this reason.

Personally I think $13,000 laughably high. I think this because I use numbers and financial data to understand bitcoin. I do not wish. I do not hope. I know what a good price to buy bitcoin is because I understand the risk based on the creation cost.

If you want to understand bitcoin in a financial sense, and not in a magical & mystical sense, you can learn more at this site:

https://www.amsinger.org

Without things like creation cost and cash flow analysis I would be lost in bitcoin. I would be slave to the whims of the whales, pumping whenever they want and dumping whenever they want. Instead I use my mind and these numbers to know when it is logical and low risk to buy and conversely to sell.

Aaron

P.S. Come on trolls, I am ready for you. Only a troll sees someone using facts and data and sprays cuss words and insults. Intelligent people ask questions or make logical statements, they do not yell at numbers.

13k was an unsustainable level because this increase was not absurbed from the whole market.
We didn't see a respective increase in altcoins' price thus it was eminent that the drop is going to happen shorty. I hope that many people saw that and didn't buy when the price was on top.

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: deisik on July 27, 2019, 02:44:05 AM

Quote from: 1Referee on July 26, 2019, 05:06:19 PM

I'm fine with the price even testing the $6000-$6500 range because that's another higher low if it holds. If you before the blast from $4000 to $5000 asked people if they expected the price to break $6000 this year, most of the answers would be no because of how bad the sentiment was then

Some would call that impatience, but this is how our subliminal works its tricks on us. Most of us base our decisions on our beliefs but the latter in turn are formed by our natural biases and misconceptions (read, these beliefs can be massively misguiding). People don't actually forget that the price rose from 3k to 13k, they remember it perfectly well. It just happens that the recent price drop (as well as the price drop of the period your refer to) makes people believe in this drop more strongly feeling it more real, and somehow disbelieve the previous rise as irrelevant like it was a fake one. In other words, they are more affected by the last events simply because they just happened as well as discard the past events as insignificant (which may turn out a grave mistake)

That makes people excessively worried and nervous

Very true, that is why I rely entirely on numbers and analysis not on emotions. It is always important to maintain perspective in investments.

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

deisik

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Quote from: 1Referee on July 26, 2019, 05:06:19 PM

I'm fine with the price even testing the $6000-$6500 range because that's another higher low if it holds. If you before the blast from $4000 to $5000 asked people if they expected the price to break $6000 this year, most of the answers would be no because of how bad the sentiment was then

Some would call that impatience, but this is how our subliminal works its tricks on us. Most of us base our decisions on our beliefs but the latter in turn are formed by our natural biases and misconceptions (read, these beliefs can be massively misguiding). People don't actually forget that the price rose from 3k to 13k, they remember it perfectly well. It just happens that the recent price drop (as well as the price drop of the period your refer to) makes people believe in this drop more strongly feeling it more real, and somehow disbelieve the previous rise as irrelevant like it was a fake one. In other words, they are more affected by the last events simply because they just happened as well as discard the past events as insignificant (which may turn out a grave mistake)

That makes people excessively worried and nervous

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: 1Referee on July 26, 2019, 05:06:19 PM

Unfortunately, people only seem to care about the price after they have bought their coins, which usually is around the top of each run. They only think about their $13,000 entry point and the current price of $9800. That Bitcoin went up from below $4000 to nearly $14,000 is irrelevant. They probably expected the price to hit $1000 on the way down and like $20,000 on the way up.

I'm fine with the price even testing the $6000-$6500 range because that's another higher low if it holds. If you before the blast from $4000 to $5000 asked people if they expected the price to break $6000 this year, most of the answers would be no because of how bad the sentiment was then. In the end, people pretending to be hodlers shouldn't complain and load up on more coins if that scenario plays out.

How dare people want to make money! Be happy with losses! Absolute hogwash. Everyone is trying to make money not buy up garbage.

https://www.amsinger.org

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: logicgate on July 25, 2019, 02:45:38 PM

Well I can tell you that the price rise was so sudden and had been so revitalizing that people did invested when it was around $13,000. However such things do happen due to fear of missing out the gains that many already in the market could earn. But this is a weak approach and it is always the best approach to invest in the coins when the market value is down.

Using logic and cash flow analysis is weak. It is always interesting to hear what these people say. Anyone who invested at 13k is down 3k now. I'm sure they feel "revitalized".

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on July 26, 2019, 11:09:11 AM

Bitcoin's price is heavily influenced by demand, and when the traders start buying again you'll see what happens.

I'm more bullish on genuine or long term demand or speculative demand which can and does reverse. I'm not sure we can have a proper trend based off rising speculative activity, at some point the leveraged buyer will turn 180 again trading price not usage and negatively shorting for the same reason to realise a price difference.
13k isnt unsustainable if there is growth in the population of users, the miners selling coins to service costs is quite a constant compared to other variables and seasons that BTC might have

1Referee

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Quote from: FanEagle on July 26, 2019, 12:46:18 PM

So of course, that dropped the price down a bit but not even that much, we moved from 4k to 13k and now dropped only to 10k which is definitely fine for me, as long as it doesn't go under 8k I think this is just people who are finally getting rid of the bags they had and nothing else, that is why I honestly feel like we are definitely capable of sustaining 13k, just need time to get rid of all sellers.

Unfortunately, people only seem to care about the price after they have bought their coins, which usually is around the top of each run. They only think about their $13,000 entry point and the current price of $9800. That Bitcoin went up from below $4000 to nearly $14,000 is irrelevant. They probably expected the price to hit $1000 on the way down and like $20,000 on the way up.

I'm fine with the price even testing the $6000-$6500 range because that's another higher low if it holds. If you before the blast from $4000 to $5000 asked people if they expected the price to break $6000 this year, most of the answers would be no because of how bad the sentiment was then. In the end, people pretending to be hodlers shouldn't complain and load up on more coins if that scenario plays out.

FanEagle

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I think it wasn't "dump", dump kind of sounds like someone wanted to bring the price down or someone wanted bitcoin price to be low to buy again cheaper. This wasn't exactly dump depending on your definition of dump.

This was more like people were happy with what they have earned and they just wanted to sell their coins. It is only natural for people who have been waiting for months even years to make a profit to finally sell when they get the chance to make a profit.

So of course, that dropped the price down a bit but not even that much, we moved from 4k to 13k and now dropped only to 10k which is definitely fine for me, as long as it doesn't go under 8k I think this is just people who are finally getting rid of the bags they had and nothing else, that is why I honestly feel like we are definitely capable of sustaining 13k, just need time to get rid of all sellers.

Topic: Why $13,000 was unsustainable. - page 2. (Read 6815 times)