Why 9-month payoffs are still foolish

bcpokey

hero member

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Quote from: makomk on September 06, 2011, 03:32:39 PM

Quote from: bcpokey on September 06, 2011, 01:40:38 PM

Or is it?

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/71-graphics/44072-radeon-hd-7900-series-gets-new-architecture-and-xdr2-rambus-memory.html

Most of that has been known for a long time. What that doesn't mention - amongst other things - is that it looks like they're going to support BFI_INT on the vector units (and bitalign too). Pretty much the only use for BFI_INT is really fast hash computation, for stuff like Bitcoin mining, password cracking, and similar problems.

Actually as far as I know, there has been very little information on the 78xx released. Though I suppose in this world of insta-news feeds a week or two may now constitute a "long time" Roll Eyes

.

I guess that it is good news that the 7000 series will have the same support as the 5000 series though.

Bitcoin_Silver_Supply

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Quote from: Surawit on September 06, 2011, 11:49:23 AM

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on September 06, 2011, 02:52:17 AM

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...

Emperor... sir... we are receiving a hologram message... from... Tokyo...

lol.

I believe it's Bruce.

makomk

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 564

Quote from: bcpokey on September 06, 2011, 01:40:38 PM

Or is it?

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/71-graphics/44072-radeon-hd-7900-series-gets-new-architecture-and-xdr2-rambus-memory.html

Most of that has been known for a long time. What that doesn't mention - amongst other things - is that it looks like they're going to support BFI_INT on the vector units (and bitalign too). Pretty much the only use for BFI_INT is really fast hash computation, for stuff like Bitcoin mining, password cracking, and similar problems.

bcpokey

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on September 06, 2011, 02:52:17 AM

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...

Or is it?

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/71-graphics/44072-radeon-hd-7900-series-gets-new-architecture-and-xdr2-rambus-memory.html

AngelusWebDesign

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Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Who is that, MagicalTux?

Surawit

newbie

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Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on September 06, 2011, 02:52:17 AM

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...

http://www.angeluswebdesign.com/palpatine.jpg

Emperor... sir... we are receiving a hologram message... from... Tokyo...

https://i.imgur.com/TSVNk.jpg

Bitcoin_Silver_Supply

sr. member

Activity: 258

Merit: 250

"Use your negative feelings, boy. Let the pessimism floooow through you!"

AngelusWebDesign

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Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...

Bitcoin_Silver_Supply

sr. member

Activity: 258

Merit: 250

Quite the crash happening at the moment. It seems likely that difficulty will also hit the floor if we drop as low as many of the former true believers have come to predict.

Just like you predicted, right Angelus? Grin

AngelusWebDesign

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Quote from: gw4tt on September 05, 2011, 02:03:04 PM

I'm just waiting for the exchange rate to fall below $6 then I'll buy.

I hope you have money in Mt. Gox standing by...

pennytrader

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Activity: 254

Merit: 250

Quote from: Litt on September 05, 2011, 08:47:18 PM

This thread is so full of crap.. People talking up nonsense and they are patting each other on their backs trying to discourage new miners. Have fun boys. Wink

Oh and mining will be profitable at $.12/kwh even down to $3btc. If you want to sell your mining gears I'm certain people with higher IQ than you will buy that quickly off you.

Everybody who is selling their mining gears should quote your post:
"Want to show higher IQ? Buy my cards!"

Litt

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

This thread is so full of crap.. People talking up nonsense and they are patting each other on their backs trying to discourage new miners. Have fun boys. Wink

Oh and mining will be profitable at $.12/kwh even down to $3btc. If you want to sell your mining gears I'm certain people with higher IQ than you will buy that quickly off you.

gw4tt

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

I'm just waiting for the exchange rate to fall below $6 then I'll buy.

Cluster2k

legendary

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The best use of money right now is not buying more mining hardware. Depending on power costs, it takes 6+ months to pay for itself. Lame. Buying more hardware increases difficulty and makes it even harder to acquire bitcoins. Lame++. The better approach is to simply buy bitcoins on the exchanges. You'll be helping to support the price (you do want to sell at a profit, right?) and also not actively increasing the supply of bitcoins (thus competing against yourself). Now go forth and purchase... I have bitcoins to sell :-)

johnj

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Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 04, 2011, 09:35:19 PM

I don't get what's with all the whining. Instead of waiting for opportunities to sell high just use the coins and buy something.
Just buy something from another community member and skip the damn USD, EUR or whatnot.

The more people who do this the more likely the price will recover.
Feels like I'm preaching against the wall... but you all know its right.

As soon as I can pay my power bill in BTC, I won't worry about the conversion (as much).

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

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Marketing manager - GO MP

I don't get what's with all the whining. Instead of waiting for opportunities to sell high just use the coins and buy something.
Just buy something from another community member and skip the damn USD, EUR or whatnot.

The more people who do this the more likely the price will recover.
Feels like I'm preaching against the wall... but you all know its right.

AngelusWebDesign

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

I don't know what's dictating BTC price right now, but whatever's calling the shots is calling that BTC go down, down, down...

Currently in the $7's

Getting a bit frustrating, to be honest. I'm just having a hard time seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. I'm just glad my costs are relatively low, and that I didn't just go out and spend several $K on mining hardware Wink

If I make a little profit and just about break even before BTC hits $4, then great.

I do wonder if the pace of decline will slow if it gets any lower. Aren't there enough speculators out there to buoy up the price? Isn't the supply of BTC to-be-sold going down at all?

bcpokey

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Quote from: CanaryInTheMine on September 04, 2011, 04:02:27 PM

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on September 04, 2011, 02:57:22 PM

I just noticed today that BTC took another 5% dump.

It's true that BTC "could" go to da moon, and "could" go to 10 cents.

But which is more likely -- or, is a third option more likely?

The charts HAVE to give us some indication. Does anyone remember what BTC were selling for right after the Mt Gox hack? $16! The it dropped a dollar or two every week or so.

Recently, it dipped to 7 before recovering to around $12.50 (briefly) then was pretty stable at $11.50 for a while. Now $11 seems like a distant dream!

Even $8.50 is out of reach at the moment.

So I must say that an explosion in value would require a "black swan" (out of left field) event, whereas the status quo is lower and lower every couple weeks -- who knows how low it will go before stopping and/or reversing. It SHOULD stop when miners stop selling -- but, as many people point out, BTC mining is still profitable (if you're good at it, have cheap electricity, etc.) at the crappy price of $8 per BTC.

As long as there's profit to be made, the difficulty will rise and/or the price will drop, until it reaches an equillibrium.

Heck, I hear about guys buying 40 6990's today. Even with BTC at $8.10 each. Difficulty is going to rise -- unless a bunch of people jump ship at the same time of course.

It's not too bold of a prediction I'm making -- namely, that returns are going to continue to diminish. But that's why I'm leery of 9, 10 and 12-month payoff periods.

Believe me, I hope somebody invents a personal fusion reactor, or generator that runs on water, that the inventor decides to ONLY sell for Bitcoin -- 12 BTC each. That would be just the shot in the arm we need Grin

I have some 6990s to sell

let em know who these guys are who want to buy 40 of them... maybe I can sell them some...

He's probably talking about Striker, who posted that in this thread (long post, hard to read I know), as anecdotal evidence.

EDIT: Just a reminder, price of coin and difficulty are not related (well, order matters, price doesn't rest on difficulty).

CanaryInTheMine

donator

Activity: 2352

Merit: 1060

between a rock and a block!

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on September 04, 2011, 02:57:22 PM

I just noticed today that BTC took another 5% dump.

It's true that BTC "could" go to da moon, and "could" go to 10 cents.

But which is more likely -- or, is a third option more likely?

The charts HAVE to give us some indication. Does anyone remember what BTC were selling for right after the Mt Gox hack? $16! The it dropped a dollar or two every week or so.

Recently, it dipped to 7 before recovering to around $12.50 (briefly) then was pretty stable at $11.50 for a while. Now $11 seems like a distant dream!

Even $8.50 is out of reach at the moment.

So I must say that an explosion in value would require a "black swan" (out of left field) event, whereas the status quo is lower and lower every couple weeks -- who knows how low it will go before stopping and/or reversing. It SHOULD stop when miners stop selling -- but, as many people point out, BTC mining is still profitable (if you're good at it, have cheap electricity, etc.) at the crappy price of $8 per BTC.

As long as there's profit to be made, the difficulty will rise and/or the price will drop, until it reaches an equillibrium.

Heck, I hear about guys buying 40 6990's today. Even with BTC at $8.10 each. Difficulty is going to rise -- unless a bunch of people jump ship at the same time of course.

It's not too bold of a prediction I'm making -- namely, that returns are going to continue to diminish. But that's why I'm leery of 9, 10 and 12-month payoff periods.

Believe me, I hope somebody invents a personal fusion reactor, or generator that runs on water, that the inventor decides to ONLY sell for Bitcoin -- 12 BTC each. That would be just the shot in the arm we need Grin

I have some 6990s to sell

let em know who these guys are who want to buy 40 of them... maybe I can sell them some...

gw4tt

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

There are some miners purchasing those cards specifically for the alternative chains though.

If you're buying a lot of cards right now for bitcoin you're betting on the exchange rate to go up - and if you're doing that you might as well just buy bitcoins right now. It's clear that's the better option.

With the 7XXX series coming out it makes it even more risky.

Topic: Why 9-month payoffs are still foolish (Read 5497 times)