Topic: Why 9-month payoffs are still foolish - page 2. (Read 5576 times)

I just noticed today that BTC took another 5% dump.

It's true that BTC "could" go to da moon, and "could" go to 10 cents.

But which is more likely -- or, is a third option more likely?

The charts HAVE to give us some indication. Does anyone remember what BTC were selling for right after the Mt Gox hack? $16!  The it dropped a dollar or two every week or so.

Recently, it dipped to 7 before recovering to around $12.50 (briefly) then was pretty stable at $11.50 for a while.  Now $11 seems like a distant dream!

Even $8.50 is out of reach at the moment.

So I must say that an explosion in value would require a "black swan" (out of left field) event, whereas the status quo is lower and lower every couple weeks -- who knows how low it will go before stopping and/or reversing. It SHOULD stop when miners stop selling -- but, as many people point out, BTC mining is still profitable (if you're good at it, have cheap electricity, etc.) at the crappy price of $8 per BTC.

As long as there's profit to be made, the difficulty will rise and/or the price will drop, until it reaches an equillibrium.

Heck, I hear about guys buying 40 6990's today. Even with BTC at $8.10 each. Difficulty is going to rise -- unless a bunch of people jump ship at the same time of course.

It's not too bold of a prediction I'm making -- namely, that returns are going to continue to diminish. But that's why I'm leery of 9, 10 and 12-month payoff periods.

Believe me, I hope somebody invents a personal fusion reactor, or generator that runs on water, that the inventor decides to ONLY sell for Bitcoin -- 12 BTC each. That would be just the shot in the arm we need 

Hi,



FBI is clearly not aware of the Constitution of the United States of America.
If they were they would know that it is Not Legal to have a Federal Reserve, specially not in the current terms.
If only they would have Read the Constitution they would know that The Only Legal currency in the USA is actually Gold, and ONLY States are allowed to print Gold-Backed currency.

Well, maybe it is just me listening too much to Alex Jones ...  

Also ... it only reveals How Desperate they are ...

Regards.

Hi,




Sorry to intervene on such an intriguing conversation

I also have made many calls as the one you mention, the  total inevitable collapse of the dollar, major disruptions on world economy.
I also invested heavily on gold in 2006 and 2007, and then again in 2010.

Moreover , I am from Europe but I have lived and worked for a short while in 1999 in The Great State of Texas , Austin to be precise.
I simply Love the place, the people, the countryside, a great time no doubt, and I miss it a lot.

Just before that I was in Brasil researching in a University. At the time Everyone exchanged immediately from Real to USD$ as soon as they got their payments.
When I was there everyone told me. ... you must be crazy ?!?! Why don't you exchange right away to the US$ ?!?!

It was with surprise everyone listened to me explaining the basis of international economics, and how their Government at the time was really heading in the right direction and things will be ok on the contrary to the rest of the world ... they all stared at me thinking I must be crazy ... after all this time (13 years) however the numbers are clear: If I had "exchanged" to the dollar instead of keeping the cash in Brazilian Real Central Bank certificates (Brazilian Gov Debt) I would have lost 65% of the value instead of a very great 56% Gain on a zero risk app (0 risk apart from exchange rates).

Moreover: I only bought a house for me and my wife in 2008, yeah, the peak of the crisis ... for everyone to understand How Accurate my forecast have been here is the picture:
I needed at the time a loan and spreads for me where about 0.25% in my case. Spreads are the Bank margin over ECB rate Euribor. Today at 1.5%
It involved negociating with lots of banks an I had a huge deal on the financing in the middle of a world crisis.
The point was I am now paying Less then Half the cash monthly as I would by Renting the same house I live in with my wife.

You guys would not understand the Enormous pressure I had to put to in order to convince my wife to live with me a very (like Very) small apartment for 10 years!
In a time where Everyone we knew that actually earned a Lot Less then we did had Huge Houses ... I mean Huge houses, not apartments. ...

Today when I meet them they can not even stand to look at me in the eyes ...
Not that my wife was ever into managing our savings, but now she does not even ask for any investment we make ...

I could mention so many other things you do not even imagine ... things where I gained and were literally to put my money where my mouth is against everyone else common sense.

My forecasts, some of them long term forecasts, where Dead On.

So I dare anyone to show a track record compare to what I have done.
And all this in an environment where everyone considered me a complete fool. It was "obvious" I was wrong ... houses prices never came down ... dollar will not fall ... Gold is a dead investment  and so many more things.

Hence I really see a major downfall of the US$ and yes, I see bitcoins as Way More safe then any US$. For several reasons.
I do see bitcoins as the new World coin. Just think about increasing bank and Credit card fees ...
And lets face it: No country is a safe guardian of currency and actually gold is kind of hard to be used as a trade and exchange.
Examples abound: the Euro is also a mess although only for a short time of a couple of years, the Yen is what we all know but even like that I trust it more then the US$. We could go on and on with all other currencies ...

Bitcoins, gold, and some other assets are immune to this debacle of currencies, with the US$ at the top of devaluation, risking a major major tumble.

I agree on your stance over the 7000 series. It will be faster no doubt. It Certainly be Much Less power hungry. How much?
We do not know.
But I must remind you that the 28nm is made by TSMC. The initial date is already set back one year from the original date ...
So I think that top of line boards will not be here before Q1 2010 at best.
They will certainly not be aimed at mining ... and also, like you said, many people have 6990 on major rig operations.
For that reason I can not see the big farmers exchanging their current 6990 for 7990 ... some have not even pay for the investment ...
Also there is the question of the 7990 availability, like I have said before ... going from 40nm to 28nm is not the same as going from 32nm to 28nm ... and TSMC (a company I really appreciate by the way) already made some blops on the way to 32nm ...

And they will cost more then the current 6990 for sure. Once again, how much no one knows (initial technology (28nm) costs are very very high ... ).

I am about to buy 20X  6990  and can even go for 40 X 6990 ... these boards will be profitable for a long time ... maybe longer then what we think.

If you actually see the big picture I would strongly suggest you take into consideration _ALL_ market conditions that point to a Hugelly undervalued bitcoin at current prices.
I think 35US$ / BTC is actually a very low exchange rate.


Regards.

Is this a thread about the relationship of Bert and Ernie? If so, Seasame Street was ahead of its time. And yes, they were totally in love with each other.

It's not exactly a conspiracy theory, when the FBI blatantly states that it mounts every effort to disrupt and destroy anything that could compete with the usdollar via FUD and whatever.

http://www.fbi.gov/charlotte/press-releases/2011/defendant-convicted-of-minting-his-own-currency


Not saying I agree with the poster who called you out on it, but just saying it's not exactly a huge stretch of the imagination, or some crazy tinfoil hat wearers fevered dreams of persecution.

As for the rest, well I shrug.

Yes, I have plenty of faults and weaknesses but one of my strengths seems to be seeing the big picture -- taking a thousand points of data and forming a coherent picture from it.

I would certainly say that everything I'm saying should be taken only at face-value. I *hate* it when people read things in, and put words in my mouth.

If I say that the 7000 series should be prudently considered, I mean it should be prudently considered. I'm not "between the lines" saying anything about Bitcoin, mining,  the South African government, or the relationship between Bert and Ernie.

I'll try to keep posting amusing posts -- sometimes I get too busy to post, but I haven't given up the forum yet.


Matthew

don't think so... that's just nonsense. 

 

...because if there's anyone coherent or intelligent on bitcointalk.org they HAVE to be a government agent.

I guess I can't fault your logic -- you do have something to go on -- namely, that I bring the average IQ up a few points when I'm here.  

But government agent? Come on, I thought *I* believed in conspiracies. You see a government agent under every bush. You, my friend, are downright paranoid. Back on the meds with you!


P.S. What disinformation?  I don't expect you to answer, because I know you won't. Your kind never does. But I'd like to know what disinformation I've ever spread, now or 3 months ago. Quotes, please.

As far as I'm concerned, he may as well be a gov't hired goon to infiltrate and spread fud. And I honestly have no doubt that there are already many of these types in bitcointalk already doing just this. Easiest to take down bitcoin is to disseminate the supporters from inside with disinformation.

don't take me the wrong way.  I don't "disagree" with your posts in short term or if you consider what you are saying in a small or limited construct/view. 
Honestly, your posts give me the most chuckles for some reason.

I am glad that you do see the big picture and want the same.

Anyway, have fun with your posts... see you around.  I look forward to your new posts and bemusing responses.

So every post that is in any way negative to Bitcoin somehow has me behind it? I didn't know I was that powerful.  
Especially since many "negative" threads are started and finished without one post of participation from me.

I also hope that Bitcoin goes mainstream. I actually have a credit card merchant account, and believe me there are few things that are that much of a pain in the butt (maybe going to the dentist, or having a colo-rectal exam?) I kid you not; they add fees every month it seems! I can't wait until I can just accept Bitcoin and drop my merchant account.

We are all allowed to discuss whatever comes to our minds on here last time I checked. I'm not going to shelve half the topics and posts I think up just because someone might get the wrong idea that I'm on a calculated campaign to discourage people. Too bad for them. I'm not a troll, my posts are perfectly in accordance with the ToS, I haven't been banned yet (and am not about to be), so there's no problem with me. If you don't like my posts, DON'T READ THEM.

Truth never hurt anyone. I'm just discussing the situation as it evolves. It shouldn't be threatening to anyone who isn't doing something stupid.

The last thing I called "ridiculous" on was $160 5830's on eBay. 2 weeks later, they were no longer a reality. I also called for sub-$1000 PCs back in 1996 (I even lost my computer store job to prove it -- I didn't sell enough high-end PCs, because I saw that a 133 Pentium was about the same as a 200 Pentium, even though the former was $1400 and the latter was $3000) I was also recommending people get out of the stock market and buy gold in 2007 (when it was $650 -- it's currently $1800 something) So I have been known to have decent "vision".

I share your understanding and the urge to point things out to those who are clueless about technology...

However, you are wasting your breath.  The fact is most people (even though current miners here are a smart and tech savvy bunch) do not understand fully what it means to go down to 28.  therefore they make stupid comments with references to prior experience based on different technology.  boys and girls it ain't apples to oranges.

you start these things... so don't try talking as if your constant and consistent theme is somehow shared... it it not.

I for one hope that difficulty increases 3-4 fold.  You know why?  because that would mean bitcoin would be mainstream and adopted as a payment system.

unless bitcoin is adopted and becomes mainstream, we will just hover around where we are today.

I want it to explode.  I want it to be the next paypal and without more adoption and more mining it ain't gonna happen.

Stop being so shortsighted.  Where's your vision of bitcoin?  

Angelus you are memorable because of how passionately and consistently you pursue your goal of discouraging newcomers. Most mining trolls come on, post a few times and are then never heard of again. You, however, really have made this a part time job and that is remarkable.

I actually agree with many of your concerns but again it's a question of risk vs potential for reward. Everyone, even the biggest BTC bulls (many of which are also trolls), know that this project could implode at any moment. The excitement in this whole endeavor is that noone knows and everyone is left to do their own cost-benefit analysis on what they can afford to put into risk. At the end of the day it's only worthwhile if you have the money to invest and are willing to take losses.

I sympathize on mining in Texas. Things are a little easier up north..

Actually, it's my "critics" that are the selfish ones -- they drool over the used, after-market 6990s and 5970's they are going to pick up when various miners find out the truth about current Bitcoin profitability

The more people sink their money into them, the more units will be sold on the aftermarket.

So you can speculate about my "true motives", and I can speculate about yours. Neither of us can prove our suspicions true or false. So why go there?

Isn't it a foregone conclusion that all miners on this board want difficulty to go down, and would like to discourage people? I could point to DOZENS of threads and posts that are much more discouraging than any of mine (past or present). I don't know why I'm so memorable.

I was asking an honest question. I was merely trying to start a discussion about 7000 series cards -- why don't YOU stop giving yourself an ulcer.

so stop discouraging!  I understand your motive is to see difficulty continue dropping so that you can speed up your 100% payoff
but, if you want to stop giving yourself an ulcer, just stop mining and write everything off.  problem solved.

I have 20 cards total, no more than 3 per machine. I bought everything at a good or great price.
I've been slowly building up since I started in late May of this year; I stopped expanding right before the August 6 crash; I haven't bought a card since.
I'm glad my cards have all had a chance to partially pay for themselves; but most of that payoff happened before August 6!
Maybe 10% of the money I made came in during the last month; the other 90% came during the first 2 1/3 months. The profitability of Bitcoin has gone way down. Who hasn't noticed that?

Of course those who are already set up to mine are going to keep doing so.

BTW, I am supposed to have more like 6.1 or 6.2 GH/s, but many of my cards are throttled down to almost 50% of normal hashrate, so they don't overheat. I'm in south central Texas, were it STILL gets up over 100 every single day and only goes down to 81 in the middle of the night. No free cooling for me. I have my machines in a "hotroom" of sorts -- a game room converted into non-air-conditioned space. I was sick of the excess heat warming up the rest of my house.

In all likelihood he has a lot more, but split between other pools and maybe even between deepbit and some solo setup.  deepbit gives him constant income to pay electricity and solo is his true motive to hoard bitcoin. LOL

I always wondered how much he had. I knew he probably had a sizable investment but no specifics. In all reality 5.6 ghash is only about 3-4 machines worth so its not like he has invested 10's of thousands.