Topic: Why (and when) the next bubble start. (Read 4374 times)

The real fun starts after the next halving if the market doesnt suffer unrecoverable despair. Sit back and watch several mining companies got from million dollar operations to $1 bargain shops in the next 1-2 years

Maybe after christmas. I wish.

Right! It just have broken out of a wedge and 30min BB line! To the moon!!!  

The most important thing is that we are both right . Cheers!

You're lagging, it already started october 5th 

Bubble is starting... TODAY.

Good news is not really affecting price.
We have seen a lot of good news lately but no price increase.
News is not enough, people should act according the news.
For instance, when paypal announces bitcoin integration, people should really use the integration otherwise the news is worthless.

Bitcoin is still progressing. Give it time.

It should happen soon, more good news should appear for that to happen.

Everyone is waiting for next halving... hopefully it turns out to be bubble and not crash...

 Around the next halving we will most likely see another bubble. I think we will see one more smaller bubble between now and then though.

The answer is much more simple then the ones given.

The bubble will start when the short bears have found the bottom, the price stabilises and then starts to rise. As confidence grows the Bulls come out to play.

The real question is this:

How much money is sitting on exchanges waiting to buy. The more there is then the faster the stampede, the longer it will sustain and the higher it will rise

My opinion, for what its worth is.

The bottom was achieved at $287 although most would say it was circa $300.

The recent rise to $380 which has moved up to $415 and oscillated suggests resistance waiting for the next push.

I have 120 BTC set to sell at $420 and intend to buy back in sub $400 however if the price starts to ascend quickly, I have a warning programmed into my phone every $5 increment, then i will see how far its willing to jump...

My gut says that we could easily see an 80 to 100 point rise in a small time frame.

The question is not, "When will the next bubble start?"

The question is, "When will Bitcoin grow to include enough users to justify such a monetary price increase?"
 
The good news is that we may already be at that point. Bitcoin's infrastructure has increased dramatically since last year and we even protocols based on its own blockchain (check out Counterparty) are gaining traction with businesses. There are extremely bullish happenings in the fundamentals of this technology.

We picked up many new traders in the recent bear market which will stabilize large price increases for the time being. This is normal and should not be criticized but will inhibit the price from shooting straight up. They too, however, will pull their sell orders in the event of a large increase, which has happened recently if you read over at r/bitcoinmarkets where many "pro" traders hang out. Also, many of them come from traditional market backgrounds, don't always have a deep understanding of what Bitcoin is (but will happily short it for profit), and will take those profits earlier. This leaves the large run-up (which lasted less than a month last year) to speculators with more experience in this specific market, who have a deep understanding of the protocol and what the ecosystem is up to, and are well-connected to early adopters and often trade with proprietary algorithmic bots.

I speak about both groups as they are totally separate but there is probably some overlap. Still, these guys have an obvious edge over traditional traders who use margin and are used to scalping profits in the wake of larger markets like forex. There were a few of these guys here last year, taunting that they would "wipe the floor" with us, then pick up the pieces.

The psychological effect of a bubble is very powerful and driven by a strong natural desire to increase one's own wealth and position... aka greed. Last year, we entered the "foothills" of the exponential price run-up for a few months from July to October (roughly). Once that happens, we grind slowly upwards with pauses along the way as bullish sentiment cements in the minds of traders and coins begin to disappear from exchanges. Then it's a matter of time before a catalyst lights the fuse and the price explodes upwards against all logical expectations. My gut tells me something similar is beginning to play out. Sellers have decreased and lots of dumb money who shorted toward the bottom is either out of the game or forced to buy back less ammunition than they had before.

I don't think that you read the proposal, but basically there will be a major (XBT) and a minor unit (at 1:100 of the major unit and this is presumably satoshi)
We will get 21 trillion major units (which suggests dollar parity at some point in the future) and 2.1 quadrillion satoshis (same as estimated now by 2140)

My unit is 1 satoshi. Pretty cheap if you tell me.

Of course, bitcoin does not care, but people do.
If bitcoin is mostly a commodity (like gold), then ~$400 is fine
If bitcoin is mostly a currency as was suggested in prior posting, then $400 for a main currency unit is too much. There are no other currencies that are so expensive per unit.
It is purely psychological, but to deny that people are put off by this price is unrealistic.
The solution is in Bitcoin Foundation proposal. 1,000,000 XBT per each BTC.

Gold is also expensive at $1200 a troy ounce, people still buy it.
You can also buy smaller coins or go for an alt-coin (silver).

Gold doesn't care if it's expensive, neither does bitcoin.

Why wouldn't it?

you can divide BRK-A by using BRK-B instead  .
I think the point is the higher is the price of an item/commodity/even currency, the less interest is in buying and selling it (trading) for purely psychological reasons.
Most people don't want to buy fractions of most things, so this argument is largely mute.
A few people I know commented: bitcoin is too expensive.

1. BRK-A is not a currency or money
2. You cannot divide BRK-A