Topic: Why are people buying asic mining shares? are they insane? - page 2. (Read 9352 times)

Quote from: Mabsark on June 15, 2013, 07:08:45 PM

2) 50 BTC (20 shares) = 3 btc a month

So i really dont understand why anyone will buy asic shares?

refer to #2.

Instead of BTC lets think in $'s for a moment. If there was an investment that you could put $50k into and it yields $3k a month...would that not be a sick yield? Yes..it would. So much so that the share price would run up at least 300% to bring down the yield a bit..still accounting for risk.

This is why people are buying ASICMINER...and we don't have to worry about our shiny new ASICS that become obsolete in 2 months

ThickAsThieves

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on June 15, 2013, 05:02:26 PM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 15, 2013, 08:38:14 AM

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on June 15, 2013, 05:02:26 PM

They haven't got enough hashing power to maintain 30%. BFL hash about 400 Th/s incoming, AM's got 200 Th/s incoming taking it total to 250 Th/s, Avalon will have 250 Th/s, BitFury has 200 Th/s incoming and KnC has 200 Th/s incoming from the 500 pre-orders. That's about 1300 Th/s between them and AM will only have 250 Th/s of that. That's 19.23%. By the end of the year, AM will account for about 10-15% of the network share.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL Cheesy

So funny, thank you.

Claims have no bearing on reality.

You're not living in reality, are you?

Based on reality, AM is the only one with accurate estimates, so really that's more like AM will account for about 80% of the network share. You know, except, they need to hold back.

BFL, Avalon, and Bitfury *have all been delayed*

The AM numbers come from Friedcat (initial wafer - 50 Th/s, second wafer - 200 TH/s).
The Avalon numbers come from 1500 63 GH/s units and 500,000 chip sales as reported by Yifu.
The BFL numbers come from this unofficial pre-order list.
The BitFury number come from 100TH.
The KnC number come from the 500 pre-order units.

This is the reality. You can pretend it isn't as much as you want, but it won't change the facts, it'll just lead to you making poor decisions.

Your numbers are missing exact dates of delivery, the most pertinent detail.

Exact dates of delivery are irrelevant, what's relevant is the fact that AM now have competition and that competition will be bringing online just as much, if not more, hashing power. Because of this, they cannot maintain their current share of the network.

Great, so how will you be investing?

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 15, 2013, 08:38:14 AM

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on June 15, 2013, 05:00:53 PM

They haven't got enough hashing power to maintain 30%. BFL hash about 400 Th/s incoming, AM's got 200 Th/s incoming taking it total to 250 Th/s, Avalon will have 250 Th/s, BitFury has 200 Th/s incoming and KnC has 200 Th/s incoming from the 500 pre-orders. That's about 1300 Th/s between them and AM will only have 250 Th/s of that. That's 19.23%. By the end of the year, AM will account for about 10-15% of the network share.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL Cheesy

So funny, thank you.

Claims have no bearing on reality.

You're not living in reality, are you?

Based on reality, AM is the only one with accurate estimates, so really that's more like AM will account for about 80% of the network share. You know, except, they need to hold back.

BFL, Avalon, and Bitfury *have all been delayed*

The AM numbers come from Friedcat (initial wafer - 50 Th/s, second wafer - 200 TH/s).
The Avalon numbers come from 1500 63 GH/s units and 500,000 chip sales as reported by Yifu.
The BFL numbers come from this unofficial pre-order list.
The BitFury number come from 100TH.
The KnC number come from the 500 pre-order units.

This is the reality. You can pretend it isn't as much as you want, but it won't change the facts, it'll just lead to you making poor decisions.

Your numbers are missing exact dates of delivery, the most pertinent detail.

Exact dates of delivery are irrelevant, what's relevant is the fact that AM now have competition and that competition will be bringing online just as much, if not more, hashing power. Because of this, they cannot maintain their current share of the network.

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: Mabsark on June 15, 2013, 04:31:44 PM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 15, 2013, 08:35:52 AM

Income from hardware sales will obviously decrease as more valuable hardware from competitors becomes readily available.

LOL, dude, friedcat already announced price cuts on his hardware (blades).

He can just keep doing this.

Create good shit, *actually ship good shit in a timely manner* and cut the prices when necessary until he creates more good shit.

So, let me get this straight. Friedcat has already told you that the price of hardware will be getting slashed, and you don't think that will cause a decrease in dividends from hardware sales?

Which is the bigger value, x*10 or x*20?

Except it's not x and x, it's x and y. When cost goes down, quantity sold goes up.

The quantity available for sale is limited, so it is x and x.

JohnSy

newbie

Activity: 14

Merit: 0

I never got an answer. Just some first grade math here:

1) 2.5 BTC per share -> 0.036 weekly dividend = 0.145 btc a month = 17 month breakeven
2) 50 BTC (20 shares) = 3 btc a month
3) 50 BTC buys you a 13 GH asic card = 12 BTC a month (factor in whatever difficulty increase it is still significantly better income, and keep in mind the mining shares dividend are also impacted by the difficulty increase).

So i really dont understand why anyone will buy asic shares? what is the point? the return on those are terrible, on top of absolutely insane counterparty risk dependent on some guy who is running a black box that tells you what dividend he will pay.

Why would you not just have a physical card you own with no dependency on third party and make significantly more btc as income? Yet so many smart people are buying those shares...there must be something i am missing?

waiting to be enlightened...

sound like a sound investment

tomywomy

jr. member

Activity: 57

Merit: 27

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on June 15, 2013, 05:02:26 PM

The BFL numbers come from this unofficial pre-order list.

What this list shows is that BFL has delivered 130 of 4,085 orders, all only the Jalapenos. The most recent order they delivered was placed August 14, 2012 - fully 10 months ago, and there remain as many unfulfilled orders from before then as they have filled. Anyone buying a BFL machine now has almost 4000 people in line ahead of them in a line up that moves at about one person every other day. We're looking at 30 years at the current delivery rate to get through that. Maybe BFL will get their act in order, but so far it's promises that for the most part haven't delivered.

If I could get mining power at BFL's prices I'd for sure invest in that over Asicminer, for the reason you cite, but these cannot be had.

Remember a $250 order for a BFL device a year ago is $250 sitting idle hoping for delivery, whereas a $250 investment in Asicminer last week has paid a dividend of over $3, and has had capital appreciation of about $25. If you go back a whole year it's clear that Asicminer has been a profoundly better investment than waiting for Godot/BFL.

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 15, 2013, 08:38:14 AM

They haven't got enough hashing power to maintain 30%. BFL hash about 400 Th/s incoming, AM's got 200 Th/s incoming taking it total to 250 Th/s, Avalon will have 250 Th/s, BitFury has 200 Th/s incoming and KnC has 200 Th/s incoming from the 500 pre-orders. That's about 1300 Th/s between them and AM will only have 250 Th/s of that. That's 19.23%. By the end of the year, AM will account for about 10-15% of the network share.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL Cheesy

So funny, thank you.

Claims have no bearing on reality.

You're not living in reality, are you?

Based on reality, AM is the only one with accurate estimates, so really that's more like AM will account for about 80% of the network share. You know, except, they need to hold back.

BFL, Avalon, and Bitfury *have all been delayed*

The AM numbers come from Friedcat (initial wafer - 50 Th/s, second wafer - 200 TH/s).
The Avalon numbers come from 1500 63 GH/s units and 500,000 chip sales as reported by Yifu.
The BFL numbers come from this unofficial pre-order list.
The BitFury number come from 100TH.
The KnC number come from the 500 pre-order units.

This is the reality. You can pretend it isn't as much as you want, but it won't change the facts, it'll just lead to you making poor decisions.

Your numbers are missing exact dates of delivery, the most pertinent detail.

You little nit-picker!

Everyone knows that 10 apples (ASICs mining) are the same as 10 oranges (ASICs promised at some future date).

ThickAsThieves

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 15, 2013, 08:38:14 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 15, 2013, 04:31:44 PM

They haven't got enough hashing power to maintain 30%. BFL hash about 400 Th/s incoming, AM's got 200 Th/s incoming taking it total to 250 Th/s, Avalon will have 250 Th/s, BitFury has 200 Th/s incoming and KnC has 200 Th/s incoming from the 500 pre-orders. That's about 1300 Th/s between them and AM will only have 250 Th/s of that. That's 19.23%. By the end of the year, AM will account for about 10-15% of the network share.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL Cheesy

So funny, thank you.

Claims have no bearing on reality.

You're not living in reality, are you?

Based on reality, AM is the only one with accurate estimates, so really that's more like AM will account for about 80% of the network share. You know, except, they need to hold back.

BFL, Avalon, and Bitfury *have all been delayed*

The AM numbers come from Friedcat (initial wafer - 50 Th/s, second wafer - 200 TH/s).
The Avalon numbers come from 1500 63 GH/s units and 500,000 chip sales as reported by Yifu.
The BFL numbers come from this unofficial pre-order list.
The BitFury number come from 100TH.
The KnC number come from the 500 pre-order units.

This is the reality. You can pretend it isn't as much as you want, but it won't change the facts, it'll just lead to you making poor decisions.

Your numbers are missing exact dates of delivery, the most pertinent detail.

ThickAsThieves

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 15, 2013, 08:35:52 AM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 15, 2013, 08:38:14 AM

Income from hardware sales will obviously decrease as more valuable hardware from competitors becomes readily available.

LOL, dude, friedcat already announced price cuts on his hardware (blades).

He can just keep doing this.

Create good shit, *actually ship good shit in a timely manner* and cut the prices when necessary until he creates more good shit.

So, let me get this straight. Friedcat has already told you that the price of hardware will be getting slashed, and you don't think that will cause a decrease in dividends from hardware sales?

Which is the bigger value, x*10 or x*20?

Except it's not x and x, it's x and y. When cost goes down, quantity sold goes up.

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 15, 2013, 08:35:52 AM

They haven't got enough hashing power to maintain 30%. BFL hash about 400 Th/s incoming, AM's got 200 Th/s incoming taking it total to 250 Th/s, Avalon will have 250 Th/s, BitFury has 200 Th/s incoming and KnC has 200 Th/s incoming from the 500 pre-orders. That's about 1300 Th/s between them and AM will only have 250 Th/s of that. That's 19.23%. By the end of the year, AM will account for about 10-15% of the network share.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL Cheesy

So funny, thank you.

Claims have no bearing on reality.

You're not living in reality, are you?

Based on reality, AM is the only one with accurate estimates, so really that's more like AM will account for about 80% of the network share. You know, except, they need to hold back.

BFL, Avalon, and Bitfury *have all been delayed*

The AM numbers come from Friedcat (initial wafer - 50 Th/s, second wafer - 200 TH/s).
The Avalon numbers come from 1500 63 GH/s units and 500,000 chip sales as reported by Yifu.
The BFL numbers come from this unofficial pre-order list.
The BitFury number come from 100TH.
The KnC number come from the 500 pre-order units.

This is the reality. You can pretend it isn't as much as you want, but it won't change the facts, it'll just lead to you making poor decisions.

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: CanadianGuy on June 15, 2013, 08:16:50 AM

Income from hardware sales will obviously decrease as more valuable hardware from competitors becomes readily available.

LOL, dude, friedcat already announced price cuts on his hardware (blades).

He can just keep doing this.

Create good shit, *actually ship good shit in a timely manner* and cut the prices when necessary until he creates more good shit.

So, let me get this straight. Friedcat has already told you that the price of hardware will be getting slashed, and you don't think that will cause a decrease in dividends from hardware sales?

Which is the bigger value, x*10 or x*20?

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Mabsark knows all the numbers before they happen! Incredible!

That's because those numbers are common knowledge.

lunarboy

hero member

Activity: 544

Merit: 500

hard to imagine i know ..... but not everyone here has the technical ability or cheap enough electricity to support the network. Perhaps another way to help strengthen it, would be to invest in trustworthy mining companies doing just that???

tinus42

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 501

Quote from: MPOE-PR on June 15, 2013, 12:32:40 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 14, 2013, 06:36:05 PM

I never got an answer. Just some first grade math here:

1) 2.5 BTC per share -> 0.036 weekly dividend = 0.145 btc a month = 17 month breakeven
2) 50 BTC (20 shares) = 3 btc a month
3) 50 BTC buys you a 13 GH asic card = 12 BTC a month (factor in whatever difficulty increase it is still significantly better income, and keep in mind the mining shares dividend are also impacted by the difficulty increase).

So i really dont understand why anyone will buy asic shares? what is the point? the return on those are terrible, on top of absolutely insane counterparty risk dependent on some guy who is running a black box that tells you what dividend he will pay.

Why would you not just have a physical card you own with no dependency on third party and make significantly more btc as income? Yet so many smart people are buying those shares...there must be something i am missing?

waiting to be enlightened...

Yeah well, people like to belong in a crowd more than anything else. A few hundred bucks is a small price to pay.

Some people pay several thousand dollars just to be able to trade on an online stock exchange. Roll Eyes

tinus42

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 501

Because compared to BFL they offer extremely poor value (Mh/s per BTC). Why pay 1.99 BTC for 336 Mh/s, when you can buy 5 Gh/s for 3 BTC? Why buy 10 Gh/s for 50 BTC when you can get 50 Gh/s for 25 BTC?

You forget that if you buy a Block Eruptor today you get 336 Mh/s in three days. If you order a Jalapeno today you will likely get it at the end of the year or next year.

336 Mh/s next week will make you more money than 5 Gh/s next year with increased difficulty.

The only people who get their Jalapeno's now are people who ordered last year.

ASICMINER can charge what they charge because they have no serious competition NOW for new customers!

nubbins

legendary

Activity: 1554

Merit: 1009

Quote from: MPOE-PR on June 15, 2013, 12:32:40 PM

Yeah well, people like to belong in a crowd more than anything else. A few hundred bucks is a small price to pay.

Pretty early in the day to be drinking.

That said, I can't help but feel that BTC3 shares should come with a free pair of fireproof gloves.

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

I never got an answer. Just some first grade math here:

1) 2.5 BTC per share -> 0.036 weekly dividend = 0.145 btc a month = 17 month breakeven
2) 50 BTC (20 shares) = 3 btc a month
3) 50 BTC buys you a 13 GH asic card = 12 BTC a month (factor in whatever difficulty increase it is still significantly better income, and keep in mind the mining shares dividend are also impacted by the difficulty increase).

So i really dont understand why anyone will buy asic shares? what is the point? the return on those are terrible, on top of absolutely insane counterparty risk dependent on some guy who is running a black box that tells you what dividend he will pay.

Why would you not just have a physical card you own with no dependency on third party and make significantly more btc as income? Yet so many smart people are buying those shares...there must be something i am missing?

waiting to be enlightened...

Yeah well, people like to belong in a crowd more than anything else. A few hundred bucks is a small price to pay.

Eric Muyser

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

You can't kill math.

They haven't got enough hashing power to maintain 30%. BFL hash about 400 Th/s incoming, AM's got 200 Th/s incoming taking it total to 250 Th/s, Avalon will have 250 Th/s, BitFury has 200 Th/s incoming and KnC has 200 Th/s incoming from the 500 pre-orders. That's about 1300 Th/s between them and AM will only have 250 Th/s of that. That's 19.23%. By the end of the year, AM will account for about 10-15% of the network share.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL Cheesy

So funny, thank you.

Claims have no bearing on reality.

You're not living in reality, are you?

Based on reality, AM is the only one with accurate estimates, so really that's more like AM will account for about 80% of the network share. You know, except, they need to hold back.

BFL, Avalon, and Bitfury *have all been delayed*

Eric Muyser

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

You can't kill math.