Topic: Why Bitcoin is dropping and why you should be buying. - page 2. (Read 11263 times)
Wow, this place is full of morons.
The question is: what are the impacts of a crash of the global finance system on the Bitcoin? Do you think that people would escape their savings in the Bitcoin ("the digital gold")?
If a global crash does occur, I don't think people would like to put in their money into a more volatile digital currency, where they could lost more than 60% of their holdings .Just Quoting my brother here .
I was talking to a friend about digital currencies today and he said I don't believe in digital currency is just made up out of thin air and said he only wants cold hard cash he can hold in his hands. Then he preceded to pay with his meal with a credit card....
The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.
And that complex system of domestic and international trade only grows bigger in every aspect.
So, what can we conclude of this? That it will just keep going forever and debt will also exponentially rise forever and we will all be living in $100 milllion mansions and riding $50 million yachts?
No... not really...
Get a grip of reality kid
No, like I said, it will eventually fail just not in my lifetime.
Thanks BTW. No one has called me kid in 35 years.
NP
btw, I'm not a expert. Because of the strength of the dollar, it could very well be maintained and controlled for longer then expected. But even then, with the pace we're going I just don't see how it will last for a much longer time.
The system already has failed. The 2008-12 mortgage crisis is all the proof you need. The U.S. is currently attempting to jump start the economy by dumping oil reserves to drop the price of a barrel of oil which puts more disposable income in the hands of the people. These continuous bandages can be put on the system for a very long time to shore up the economy. The Great Depression was a massive global economic recession that ran from 1929 to 1941. That's 12 years of poverty and misery before a noticeable improvement. It led to massive bank failures, high unemployment, and dramatic drops in gross domestic product. It was so bad that we couldn't escape it without a major war which increased production creating jobs. I know I won't live long enough to see the end. I'm pretty sure my kids won't see it either but my grandkids are fucked. lol
Bitcoin can't fix this unless it's traded as currency for product without an exchange step or being pegged to a currency and is trusted for international barter. If that happens at all, I won't live long enough to see it. Without knowing your age, I believe you won't live that long either.
There's a slam dunk argument for hyperinflation right here
http://fofoa.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/inflation-or-hyperinflation.html
This is a blogger by the name of FOFOA and he is well worth a read.
This house of cards is probably going to pop within the next 5 years, if that and physical gold is going to be the asset to own.
I consider Bitcoin a speculative play right now but if a hyperinflation hits, people will be looking for anywhere to get rid of their fast devaluing Dollars and its pretty easy to buy bitcoin so I can see there being a good chunk of demand and selling drying up in that scenario.
http://fofoa.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/inflation-or-hyperinflation.html
This is a blogger by the name of FOFOA and he is well worth a read.
This house of cards is probably going to pop within the next 5 years, if that and physical gold is going to be the asset to own.
I consider Bitcoin a speculative play right now but if a hyperinflation hits, people will be looking for anywhere to get rid of their fast devaluing Dollars and its pretty easy to buy bitcoin so I can see there being a good chunk of demand and selling drying up in that scenario.
The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.
And that complex system of domestic and international trade only grows bigger in every aspect.
So, what can we conclude of this? That it will just keep going forever and debt will also exponentially rise forever and we will all be living in $100 milllion mansions and riding $50 million yachts?
No... not really...
Get a grip of reality kid
No, like I said, it will eventually fail just not in my lifetime.
Thanks BTW. No one has called me kid in 35 years.
NP
btw, I'm not a expert. Because of the strength of the dollar, it could very well be maintained and controlled for longer then expected. But even then, with the pace we're going I just don't see how it will last for a much longer time.
The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.
And that complex system of domestic and international trade only grows bigger in every aspect.
So, what can we conclude of this? That it will just keep going forever and debt will also exponentially rise forever and we will all be living in $100 milllion mansions and riding $50 million yachts?
No... not really...
Get a grip of reality kid
No, like I said, it will eventually fail just not in my lifetime.
Thanks BTW. No one has called me kid in 35 years.
The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.
And that complex system of domestic and international trade only grows bigger in every aspect.
So, what can we conclude of this? That it will just keep going forever and debt will also exponentially rise forever and we will all be living in $100 milllion mansions and riding $50 million yachts?
No... not really...
Get a grip of reality kid
I certainly don't want a reset anytime soon. I actually hope you're right that it's decades away. I don't really have anything to lose at this point as far as wealth is concerned, but I feel you're right that it would be total chaos. I'd rather have done well for a few years and have become an expat in a developing country before SHTF if SHTF means madmax total chaos.
The market is not going to crash the way that Jim Willie or zerohedge predicts anytime soon. I will literally guarantee it. That's not to say were not going to have massive crashes, deflation, inflation and all those other lovely market forces coming into effect. If you wait for the economic crash ship to sail you will waste your ENTIRE life. Your second plan is solid; do it.
Without sounding arrogant I read zerohedge all the time. I just don't agree with their conclusions.
Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.
Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.
My view is pretty simple. The recent QEs caused a number of asset bubbles which when they finally pop it's going to make the 2008 economic crisis look like nothing. (The recent omnibus bill that slipped in a clause putting all the derivatives banks should be liable for onto the US tax payers tells me they're already planning for this.)
After the last housing bubble popped the FEDs response was QE. So the big question for me is what option does the FED have the next round of deflating bubbles? Eventually the world is going to lose confidence in these Keynesian corportists and the dollar at that point will lose it's world-reserve status. Considering the vast majority of dollars are held offshore for trading, if those get dumped, the dollar's demise could happen really fast.
But this just my view, I have no crystal ball, and I never actually studied economics at university, etc.
Your not totally wrong, I just disagree with the conclusions. After the bubble bursts, then what? This system is currently BETTER than anything prepared in the sidelines. No one on top wants this party to end (apart from Russia, Syria and Iran). It will ruin their wealth. I doubt you want this system to end right now too. It would literally mean chaos. Fuck gold, fuck BTC, a crash of the magnitude some people predict would mean a restart. Restarts are bloody and brutal with no exceptions. They will paper this over in the short term, inflate the debt off in the medium term and system changes in the long term. Were talking decades, not weeks, months, years.
I certainly don't want a reset anytime soon. I actually hope you're right that it's decades away. I don't really have anything to lose at this point as far as wealth is concerned, but I feel you're right that it would be total chaos. I'd rather have done well for a few years and have become an expat in a developing country before SHTF if SHTF means madmax total chaos.
My main problem with most arguments against is everything is rosy so thefore there is no problem. Everything is always fine until it isn't. Do I know the day this is all coming...no. But probably most people won't just like they didn't in all the great market collapses in history.
Its not rosy. Everyone knows that. The Warren Buffets of this world know this, the Barack Obama's know this, the bloody milkman knows this. In a standard market it could crash, but this is not a standard market. Its owned primarily by the very wealthy and the banks. They would have to all run from the market for it to crash and that is not happening anytime soon. They all quite like their money there with the 5-10% gains per year. The thing to watch is NOT the financial markets, but the income inequality. The only thing that will change this system will be wide spread discontent and a government getting scared by its citizens. Without sounding arrogant I read zerohedge all the time. I just don't agree with their conclusions.
Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.
Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.
My view is pretty simple. The recent QEs caused a number of asset bubbles which when they finally pop it's going to make the 2008 economic crisis look like nothing. (The recent omnibus bill that slipped in a clause putting all the derivatives banks should be liable for onto the US tax payers tells me they're already planning for this.)
After the last housing bubble popped the FEDs response was QE. So the big question for me is what option does the FED have the next round of deflating bubbles? Eventually the world is going to lose confidence in these Keynesian corportists and the dollar at that point will lose it's world-reserve status. Considering the vast majority of dollars are held offshore for trading, if those get dumped, the dollar's demise could happen really fast.
But this just my view, I have no crystal ball, and I never actually studied economics at university, etc.
Your not totally wrong, I just disagree with the conclusions. After the bubble bursts, then what? This system is currently BETTER than anything prepared in the sidelines. No one on top wants this party to end (apart from Russia, Syria and Iran). It will ruin their wealth. I doubt you want this system to end right now too. It would literally mean chaos. Fuck gold, fuck BTC, a crash of the magnitude some people predict would mean a restart. Restarts are bloody and brutal with no exceptions. They will paper this over in the short term, inflate the debt off in the medium term and system changes in the long term. Were talking decades, not weeks, months, years.
It would take at least a few decades or a decade of worldwide pain and suffering that no one wants. You're right. That's why the system hasn't failed yet. No one wants it to. Bitcoin isn't the answer right now. At this point Bitcoin is just along for the ride.
Jim Willie, yes. I plan to buy more end of the week. Hyper inflation, loss of faith in the money, less spending, less money available for investments, concentration of wealth.
The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.
Currencies never collapse over decades they collapse more than often before people can get to their banks. The writing has been already on the wall for decades. I would argue since the FED was set up which actually is exactly 100 years....
Ok, I'll bite. Let's say there is a run on all the banks tomorrow and no one in the world is willing to use the dollar. It finally meets its deserved death. People all across the U.S. refuse to go to work. Production all but ceases to exist. People are starving to death because there's nothing to trade for food. What currency fills the vaccum left in international trade? Bitcoin? How does it come to be implimented. Is it taken over by the U.S. government to fix the problem or is it used by Muslems to destroy the evil satan once and for all?
My point is the dollar has nothing to do with the direction of Bitcoin at this point other than the value of Bitcoin is pegged to the dollar. Recessions and economic crisis are going to happen but that isn't going to help Bitcoin.
Ok then, the Yuan or possibly a basket of gold backed currencies, the issue is people WILL be looking for an alternative if the collapse comes.
I wouldn't look at recessions etc helping Bitcoin. I would say Bitcoin will help you when recessins and economic crisis come. Bitcoin doesn't need help, it rose a bazillion percent, why does anyone think it's having problems?
Then the IMF helps the Yuan become the new world reserve currency. Everyone in the world rallies around the Yuan trying to keep from starving to death. At this point is Bitcoin pegged to the Yuan? Will the Bitcoin price be more stable because it's pegged to the Yuan? In order for this new system to work and Bitcoin to be a good alternative it needs to have value to people. Where does it get that value from in this new world?
I think the arguemnt is their are many complicated deriveratives that like like they are 'breaking' so you are seeing unusual counterintuitive signs like the rise of the dollar. The truth is we are in uncharted times, I personally believe almost no one understands deriveratives that's the whole point is they are on purpose exotic and incomprehensible. Many would argue the fincancial system already collapses in 2008 sin e then the FED has just pumped blood into a dead body and zero interests rates is unpresidented. I would argue the reason people can't see all this is because they are given another narrative by the MSM which is patently false.
Yes - the derivative market is an issue, but not an issue that is likely to blow up soon. The derivative is effectively back-stopped by the central banks. I.e. every time a crash warning rumbles, the fed prints over the problem. Not that this system is sustainable, but this is a global issue - not just a US issue. I know people in the industry who said because of the back stop banks see derivatives as a win-win bet, because any explosion in the derivative market is back-stopped by the fed and insured by .... (i forget the name, some government industry).
Note how all the real wealthy, as in the 0.01% make 60-80% of their wealth in financial assets. None of them decreased their holdings this year. That says more than anything else. These are the real shakers of the economy. They will know of an imminent crash before us.
My main problem with most arguments against is everything is rosy so thefore there is no problem. Everything is always fine until it isn't. Do I know the day this is all coming...no. But probably most people won't just like they didn't in all the great market collapses in history.
Without sounding arrogant I read zerohedge all the time. I just don't agree with their conclusions.
Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.
Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.
My view is pretty simple. The recent QEs caused a number of asset bubbles which when they finally pop it's going to make the 2008 economic crisis look like nothing. (The recent omnibus bill that slipped in a clause putting all the derivatives banks should be liable for onto the US tax payers tells me they're already planning for this.)
After the last housing bubble popped the FEDs response was QE. So the big question for me is what option does the FED have the next round of deflating bubbles? Eventually the world is going to lose confidence in these Keynesian corportists and the dollar at that point will lose it's world-reserve status. Considering the vast majority of dollars are held offshore for trading, if those get dumped, the dollar's demise could happen really fast.
But this just my view, I have no crystal ball, and I never actually studied economics at university, etc.
Your not totally wrong, I just disagree with the conclusions. After the bubble bursts, then what? This system is currently BETTER than anything prepared in the sidelines. No one on top wants this party to end (apart from Russia, Syria and Iran). It will ruin their wealth. I doubt you want this system to end right now too. It would literally mean chaos. Fuck gold, fuck BTC, a crash of the magnitude some people predict would mean a restart. Restarts are bloody and brutal with no exceptions. They will paper this over in the short term, inflate the debt off in the medium term and system changes in the long term. Were talking decades, not weeks, months, years.
We will see a fall to $135 in BTC but as long the trading volume is up, its not a problem to send large amounts and thats important the the currency itself.
Othercoins will come and will show thats the blockchain of BTC is not a unique factor in BTC. Other blockchains will help BTC to get into mainstream. Just my prediction, I am not Merlin.
Othercoins will come and will show thats the blockchain of BTC is not a unique factor in BTC. Other blockchains will help BTC to get into mainstream. Just my prediction, I am not Merlin.
I think bitcoin is dropping because merchants are selling the bitcoins they received during christmas shopping. When those who spent bitcoin replenish their bitcoin holdings, price will rise again.
Most merchants use Coinbase, which means the merchant never owns Bitcoins at all. Coinbase then dumps their incoming Bitcoins on Bitstamp, so they can pay the merchant in fiat. Thus, all the holiday season transactions are over.I'd suggest BitPay has a much larger merchant base then CoinBase...
Without sounding arrogant I read zerohedge all the time. I just don't agree with their conclusions.
Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.
Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.
My view is pretty simple. The recent QEs caused a number of asset bubbles which when they finally pop it's going to make the 2008 economic crisis look like nothing. (The recent omnibus bill that slipped in a clause putting all the derivatives banks should be liable for onto the US tax payers tells me they're already planning for this.)
After the last housing bubble popped the FEDs response was QE. So the big question for me is what option does the FED have the next round of deflating bubbles? Eventually the world is going to lose confidence in these Keynesian corportists and the dollar at that point will lose its world-reserve status. Considering the vast majority of dollars are held offshore for trading, if those get dumped, the dollar's demise could happen really fast.
But this is just my view, I have no crystal ball, and I never actually studied economics at university, etc.
I think the arguemnt is their are many complicated deriveratives that like like they are 'breaking' so you are seeing unusual counterintuitive signs like the rise of the dollar. The truth is we are in uncharted times, I personally believe almost no one understands deriveratives that's the whole point is they are on purpose exotic and incomprehensible. Many would argue the fincancial system already collapses in 2008 sin e then the FED has just pumped blood into a dead body and zero interests rates is unpresidented. I would argue the reason people can't see all this is because they are given another narrative by the MSM which is patently false.
Yes - the derivative market is an issue, but not an issue that is likely to blow up soon. The derivative is effectively back-stopped by the central banks. I.e. every time a crash warning rumbles, the fed prints over the problem. Not that this system is sustainable, but this is a global issue - not just a US issue. I know people in the industry who said because of the back stop banks see derivatives as a win-win bet, because any explosion in the derivative market is back-stopped by the fed and insured by .... (i forget the name, some government industry).
Note how all the real wealthy, as in the 0.01% make 60-80% of their wealth in financial assets. None of them decreased their holdings this year. That says more than anything else. These are the real shakers of the economy. They will know of an imminent crash before us.
The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.
Currencies never collapse over decades they collapse more than often before people can get to their banks. The writing has been already on the wall for decades. I would argue since the FED was set up which actually is exactly 100 years....
Ok, I'll bite. Let's say there is a run on all the banks tomorrow and no one in the world is willing to use the dollar. It finally meets its deserved death. People all across the U.S. refuse to go to work. Production all but ceases to exist. People are starving to death because there's nothing to trade for food. What currency fills the vaccum left in international trade? Bitcoin? How does it come to be implimented. Is it taken over by the U.S. government to fix the problem or is it used by Muslems to destroy the evil satan once and for all?
My point is the dollar has nothing to do with the direction of Bitcoin at this point other than the value of Bitcoin is pegged to the dollar. Recessions and economic crisis are going to happen but that isn't going to help Bitcoin.
Ok then, the Yuan or possibly a basket of gold backed currencies, the issue is people WILL be looking for an alternative if the collapse comes.
I wouldn't look at recessions etc helping Bitcoin. I would say Bitcoin will help you when recessins and economic crisis come. Bitcoin doesn't need help, it rose a bazillion percent, why does anyone think it's having problems?
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