It has been another year and I checked back, my prediction still holds.
During this year, the most common question I get from investors is: What is the use of this thing?
In fact, many things people don’t know their usage, as long as they can be sold for fiat money, they are useful
Hedge inflation is still the most easy to understand: Since fiat currency is issued exponentially, scarce assets that have wide acceptance will appreciate
The rise in the price of ordinary goods is a slow process. New QE money often need to change hands many times before reaching the supplier. More often, the supplier is worried that no one will buy his product
But cryptocurrencies are different, they can be exchanged for all those QE money without delay. According to my simulation earlier in this post (investors buy and hold for four years, and then sell 10% every year), the daily net selling of coins is less than 5,000 coins. If the market demand exceeds 5,000 coins, the price will rise.
The key is to understand that it is sustainable since constant fiat money inflow will digest those 5000 coins sell pressure every day
There are 385,000 new babies every day now. Assuming one-tenth of these people need to buy coins to get on this ship, that's 30,000. 30,000 people are competing for 5000 coins every day, and each person gets 1/6 of those coins. These coins are the total amount of all their investments in their lifetime, which can be assumed to be the amount of investment in their pension funds. If each person invests 10,000 USD, the price of Bitcoin can be maintained at 60,000. If they invest 100,000, the price can be maintained at 600K. If they invest 1 million, the price of Bitcoin can be maintained at 6 million.
So once ETF is mature and invested by pension funds, it will get a guaranteed support
Bit of a nit, but is money creation actually exponential? It may accelerate over time, but I doubt
exponentially. Your larger point that increasing the money pool should create price appreciation for scarce assets though. The amount of speculation though makes it volatile and risky, and nothing is guaranteed to go up forever; not even scarce assets. The risk is that the volatility will have you at a loss when you need to cash out, and it's not an insignificant one.