Why Bitcoin will not go past $1000 | Bitcointalksearch.org

atc1

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 07:19:16 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on May 27, 2014, 07:09:08 PM

Quote from: flailing Junk on May 27, 2014, 07:02:25 PM

According to Petko Draganov bitcoin isnt worth paying attention to unless it is doing 200 billion a day in volume. Assuming bitcoin will be worth paying attention to the market cap will have to be well into the trillions to support that.

all this is telling me is that Petko Draganov is a buyer at 300,000$ bitcoin

i'm all for weighing both sides of the situation here. but who the hell is Petko Draganov, and why would i possibly care what his position is? he some sort of economist?

Lol,this question right here. Who is he and what experience does he have? Also,it's a wonder that BTC is at what levels it is today. It's come very far in a very short time. As long as there is more adoption,and there are speculators in the market,it's value will keep going up and down. So,yeah...

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: Melbustus on May 27, 2014, 03:39:32 PM

Bitcoin value is easy enough to model. Magnitude just boils down to assumptions:

http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

Edit: tl;dr: $27,381 / BTC on relatively conservative success-case assumptions.
Fair value today depends on your analysis of the reasonability of those assumptions, and your estimation of the probability that the success case will happen.

And a discount for when it will happen.

Gimmelfarb

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: adamstgBit on May 27, 2014, 07:09:08 PM

Quote from: flailing Junk on May 27, 2014, 07:02:25 PM

According to Petko Draganov bitcoin isnt worth paying attention to unless it is doing 200 billion a day in volume. Assuming bitcoin will be worth paying attention to the market cap will have to be well into the trillions to support that.

all this is telling me is that Petko Draganov is a buyer at 300,000$ bitcoin

i'm all for weighing both sides of the situation here. but who the hell is Petko Draganov, and why would i possibly care what his position is? he some sort of economist?

adamstgBit

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1037

Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: flailing Junk on May 27, 2014, 07:02:25 PM

According to Petko Draganov bitcoin isnt worth paying attention to unless it is doing 200 billion a day in volume. Assuming bitcoin will be worth paying attention to the market cap will have to be well into the trillions to support that.

all this is telling me is that Petko Draganov is a buyer at 300,000$ bitcoin

flailing Junk

member

Activity: 92

Merit: 10

According to Petko Draganov bitcoin isnt worth paying attention to unless it is doing 200 billion a day in volume. Assuming bitcoin will be worth paying attention to the market cap will have to be well into the trillions to support that.

RandomPedestrianN9

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 06:47:10 PM

Quote from: Bit_Happy on May 27, 2014, 06:42:46 PM

Quote from: m3 on May 27, 2014, 09:04:16 AM

The Winklevoss twins did some calculations and said that Bitcoin is supposed to be in the ten thousands range.
Here, this article on CNBC talks about the Winklevoss twins stating that the price is supposed to be atleast 100 times what it is now.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101190181

Many people will want to own at least 1 whole BTC.
The extremely low supply will be a huge factor as demand rises. Once Bitcoin is above $2,000 (for example) it might never again "go past $1,000" on any correction.

what kind of calculations do they use to come to this conclusion? is it similar to some of the analysis i have seen regarding metcalfe's law as a measure of value based on the network effect? i still haven't been able to fully wrap my head around that stuff.

1) grab a calculator
2) type in 200
3) times 10
4) 2000 result
5) this proves the price will be 2000

Gimmelfarb

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: Bit_Happy on May 27, 2014, 06:42:46 PM

Quote from: m3 on May 27, 2014, 09:04:16 AM

The Winklevoss twins did some calculations and said that Bitcoin is supposed to be in the ten thousands range.
Here, this article on CNBC talks about the Winklevoss twins stating that the price is supposed to be atleast 100 times what it is now.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101190181

Many people will want to own at least 1 whole BTC.
The extremely low supply will be a huge factor as demand rises. Once Bitcoin is above $2,000 (for example) it might never again "go past $1,000" on any correction.

what kind of calculations do they use to come to this conclusion? is it similar to some of the analysis i have seen regarding metcalfe's law as a measure of value based on the network effect? i still haven't been able to fully wrap my head around that stuff.

Skele

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

VocalPlatform.com

Quote from: Bit_Happy on May 27, 2014, 06:42:46 PM

Quote from: m3 on May 27, 2014, 09:04:16 AM

The Winklevoss twins did some calculations and said that Bitcoin is supposed to be in the ten thousands range.
Here, this article on CNBC talks about the Winklevoss twins stating that the price is supposed to be atleast 100 times what it is now.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101190181

Many people will want to own at least 1 whole BTC.
The extremely low supply will be a huge factor as demand rises. Once Bitcoin is above $2,000 (for example) it might never again "go past $1,000" on any correction.

Yes, one btc will be like "hey dude, he owns an ENTIRELY BTC!" , imagine if the 8 decimals bitcoin has become useful, lets say 1 satoshi = 1 cent, each bitcoin will worth 100,000 .

Bit_Happy

legendary

Activity: 2114

Merit: 1040

A Great Time to Start Something!

Quote from: m3 on May 27, 2014, 09:04:16 AM

The Winklevoss twins did some calculations and said that Bitcoin is supposed to be in the ten thousands range.
Here, this article on CNBC talks about the Winklevoss twins stating that the price is supposed to be atleast 100 times what it is now.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101190181

Many people will want to own at least 1 whole BTC.
The extremely low supply will be a huge factor as demand rises. Once Bitcoin is above $2,000 (for example) it might never again "go past $1,000" on any correction.

Gimmelfarb

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: Anduck on May 27, 2014, 06:12:25 PM

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 05:48:32 PM

Quote from: Anduck on May 27, 2014, 05:45:40 PM

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 05:41:13 PM

yes, but there are a couple considerations. 1) Chinese exchanges have been shown to fake volume (e.g. OkCoin) 2) was MT Gox price action driving the price action on Chinese exchanges? if so, then that is pretty significant, i think.

If we don't look at the obviously faking volume -exchanges, still Mt Gox proportion of the volume was quite low. I've not analyzed anything myself but I've understood it's clear that Chinese exchanges were leading the rise.

on the first part, though -- removing the obviously faking volume -exchanges. how can you do that? personally, i don't trust the volume numbers coming out of any of the Chinese exchanges, but that is partly because i don't know where to start this sort of volume analysis. also, the Chinese exchanges offer margin trading, which tends to excite volume numbers, though that may not be any real reason to detract from their numbers.

BTC China is 'OK' in my eyes. I searched some info and apparently, based on the link, Gox volume were just 7% of the Bitstamp volume. http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26h8tv/the_willy_btc_volume_is_only_equivalent_to_7_of/

interesting. that is actually really surprising to me. i guess it's been so long now since i was watchin the action on Gox on btc wisdom, but i remember feeling like Gox has SO MUCH liquidity, such walls. i always felt like they had so much volume. but never actually looked too deeply.

Anduck

legendary

Activity: 1511

Merit: 1072

quack

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 05:48:32 PM

Quote from: Anduck on May 27, 2014, 05:45:40 PM

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 05:41:13 PM

yes, but there are a couple considerations. 1) Chinese exchanges have been shown to fake volume (e.g. OkCoin) 2) was MT Gox price action driving the price action on Chinese exchanges? if so, then that is pretty significant, i think.

If we don't look at the obviously faking volume -exchanges, still Mt Gox proportion of the volume was quite low. I've not analyzed anything myself but I've understood it's clear that Chinese exchanges were leading the rise.

on the first part, though -- removing the obviously faking volume -exchanges. how can you do that? personally, i don't trust the volume numbers coming out of any of the Chinese exchanges, but that is partly because i don't know where to start this sort of volume analysis. also, the Chinese exchanges offer margin trading, which tends to excite volume numbers, though that may not be any real reason to detract from their numbers.

BTC China is 'OK' in my eyes. I searched some info and apparently, based on the link, Gox volume were just 7% of the Bitstamp volume. http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26h8tv/the_willy_btc_volume_is_only_equivalent_to_7_of/

Gimmelfarb

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: Anduck on May 27, 2014, 05:45:40 PM

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 05:41:13 PM

yes, but there are a couple considerations. 1) Chinese exchanges have been shown to fake volume (e.g. OkCoin) 2) was MT Gox price action driving the price action on Chinese exchanges? if so, then that is pretty significant, i think.

If we don't look at the obviously faking volume -exchanges, still Mt Gox proportion of the volume was quite low. I've not analyzed anything myself but I've understood it's clear that Chinese exchanges were leading the rise.

on the first part, though -- removing the obviously faking volume -exchanges. how can you do that? personally, i don't trust the volume numbers coming out of any of the Chinese exchanges, but that is partly because i don't know where to start this sort of volume analysis. also, the Chinese exchanges offer margin trading, which tends to excite volume numbers, though that may not be any real reason to detract from their numbers.

Anduck

legendary

Activity: 1511

Merit: 1072

quack

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 05:41:13 PM

yes, but there are a couple considerations. 1) Chinese exchanges have been shown to fake volume (e.g. OkCoin) 2) was MT Gox price action driving the price action on Chinese exchanges? if so, then that is pretty significant, i think.

If we don't look at the obviously faking volume -exchanges, still Mt Gox proportion of the volume was quite low. I've not analyzed anything myself but I've understood it's clear that Chinese exchanges were leading the rise.

Gimmelfarb

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: Anduck on May 27, 2014, 05:37:32 PM

About the Willy: I've heard most of the volume were at chinese exchanges, not Mt. Gox. Gox had like 7% of the volume (iirc.)

Here's a good(?) graph

yes, but there are a couple considerations. 1) Chinese exchanges have been shown to fake volume (e.g. OkCoin) 2) was MT Gox price action driving the price action on Chinese exchanges? if so, then that is pretty significant, i think.

Anduck

legendary

Activity: 1511

Merit: 1072

quack

About the Willy: I've heard most of the volume were at chinese exchanges, not Mt. Gox. Gox had like 7% of the volume (iirc.)

Here's a good(?) graph

bananaControl

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 250

Decentralize All The Things!

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on May 27, 2014, 05:31:15 PM

Quote from: piramida on May 27, 2014, 04:59:53 PM

bitcoin will go past 1000 not later than august, sorry OP. 5000+ by May, 2015. the price grows by x10 every year now, we are in an explosive adoption phase. willy bot and china are just tiny detractions that can delay the growth by a month maybe. irrelevant tiny dips on a yearly scale.

speaking of the willy bot, i noticed the wordpress site has been taken down. is it posted anywhere else?

Here you go:

http://web.archive.org/web/20140525171522/http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

Once on the web, always on the web.

Gimmelfarb

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: piramida on May 27, 2014, 04:59:53 PM

bitcoin will go past 1000 not later than august, sorry OP. 5000+ by May, 2015. the price grows by x10 every year now, we are in an explosive adoption phase. willy bot and china are just tiny detractions that can delay the growth by a month maybe. irrelevant tiny dips on a yearly scale.

speaking of the willy bot, i noticed the wordpress site has been taken down. is it posted anywhere else? does anyone think the media may pick up on the story and it will have a negative impact on price?

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

bitcoin will go past 1000 not later than august, sorry OP. 5000+ by May, 2015. the price grows by x10 every year now, we are in an explosive adoption phase. willy bot and china are just tiny detractions that can delay the growth by a month maybe. irrelevant tiny dips on a yearly scale.

beetcoin

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

once the ETFs come out and wallstreet jumps into the game, i'm pretty certain it will reach $1,000.. oh and that's not even mentioning a major company like ebay, newegg, or amazon adopting btc.

serenitys

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 101

Be Here Now

Thanks. I also forgot to include the silk road drop but if it was $700 before, then now it would be returning to that level...and if it goes up again, it was always going to Grin

I think btc has gained too much traction and been invested in by big money to just cave to government/banking pressures to conform. I think the people who put money in it will comply to a point but fundamentally adopted and support btc because it frees us from these institutions. I'm okay with a little cooperation just to get to enough adoption it'll basically put the government right back in the position the bankers did: we own your ass, we're too big to fail, you can't let us fall else it'll destroy the economy...only in btc terms, too many businesses have invested in it and have mass adoption...so you can't outlaw it or regulate it out of existence without mass exodus out of fiat Grin

Topic: Why Bitcoin will not go past $1000 (Read 3191 times)