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Topic: Why Bitcoin will not go past $1000 - page 2. (Read 3191 times)

hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 500
May 27, 2014, 03:44:48 PM
#24
My understanding - which is possibly incorrect and if so, please correct - is that the price of btc was around $900-$1100 just prior to the Gox failure. Was the rate of rise leading to the $1100 point considered a bubble? If so, what price range had been the stable foundation first before the price shot up strong to over $1k?

Do you measure the actual btc value from that baseline amount before the bubble rise and if that's the baseline, if we exclude the bubble and gox failure, and look at the price recovering from both, is it meeting that baseline or has it exceeded it?

I don't know what the actual amount is because I wasn't aware of all this back then. I was considering the market in terms of dynamics and Newton's Law - it'll keep doing what it's doing until something disrupts it. If the bubble/gox failure is the disruption, then the price prior to that would be where the market was naturally at...and compared to where it is now, is it steady growth or has it reached the break even point yet?



i'm not positive, but if i remember correctly in taking a look at the historical charts, we were closer to the $700-800 range before the Gox meltdown really unfolded.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
May 27, 2014, 03:39:32 PM
#23
Bitcoin value is easy enough to model. Magnitude just boils down to assumptions:

http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

Edit: tl;dr: $27,381 / BTC on relatively conservative success-case assumptions.
Fair value today depends on your analysis of the reasonability of those assumptions, and your estimation of the probability that the success case will happen.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 101
Be Here Now
May 27, 2014, 03:24:02 PM
#22
My understanding - which is possibly incorrect and if so, please correct - is that the price of btc was around $900-$1100 just prior to the Gox failure. Was the rate of rise leading to the $1100 point considered a bubble? If so, what price range had been the stable foundation first before the price shot up strong to over $1k?

Do you measure the actual btc value from that baseline amount before the bubble rise and if that's the baseline, if we exclude the bubble and gox failure, and look at the price recovering from both, is it meeting that baseline or has it exceeded it?

I don't know what the actual amount is because I wasn't aware of all this back then. I was considering the market in terms of dynamics and Newton's Law - it'll keep doing what it's doing until something disrupts it. If the bubble/gox failure is the disruption, then the price prior to that would be where the market was naturally at...and compared to where it is now, is it steady growth or has it reached the break even point yet?

legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1000
May 27, 2014, 03:05:50 PM
#21
Who will wanna buy Bitcoins at $3000?

You'll be buying bits, or satoshis.

333 bits for a dollar? That's a freakin' steal!

I'd put some bits on 1 bit will be worth 1 USD before 2030.
hero member
Activity: 688
Merit: 500
ヽ( ㅇㅅㅇ)ノ ~!!
May 27, 2014, 03:00:44 PM
#20
Who will wanna buy Bitcoins at $3000?

You'll be buying bits, or satoshis.

333 bits for a dollar? That's a freakin' steal!
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1000
May 27, 2014, 02:40:55 PM
#19
Bitcoin is really undervalued right now, the next bubble will throw the value around 3000$+ and won't be the last one.

Seeing as BTC is the first thing to have a truely limited supply... people have no idea how amazing this is.  Many think they do by comparing it to gold, or tulips but the second those words leave their mouth you know they have no idea what power an actual limited supply means.  Limited by code is the key part, if it is limited by people it is not limited.  Never has there been anything with a limited supply ever...  the BTC bugs have decided they love BTC...

BTC over time will continue to funnel into hands that refuse to sell for a shitty price, pending the complete failure of SHA.. BTC will reward the hodlers with balls.

Do some real thinking about what will happen to something that has a limited supply over 20 years that people want, fear not the heavy dips.
legendary
Activity: 3066
Merit: 1147
The revolution will be monetized!
May 27, 2014, 02:38:16 PM
#18
...
Who will wanna buy Bitcoins at $3000?
I will. The price is irrelevant to me. When I buy on the internet I use BTC. I will need a steady supply forever at whatever price.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1074
May 27, 2014, 02:34:00 PM
#17
Well from our mouth to the Bitcoin God's ears  Grin

Will make quadruple my $2 in my wallet Ha Ha Ha Grin

Who will wanna buy Bitcoins at $3000?
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 101
May 27, 2014, 11:56:34 AM
#16
Bitcoin is really undervalued right now, the next bubble will throw the value around 3000$+ and won't be the last one.
legendary
Activity: 3066
Merit: 1147
The revolution will be monetized!
May 27, 2014, 11:30:14 AM
#15
I don't have to read that article to know that the future is unknowable. I remember reading stories about how it is impossible for bitcoin to ever be worth $1. It's a silly thing to say now that we have even been past that 1K figure.
sr. member
Activity: 952
Merit: 281
May 27, 2014, 11:28:53 AM
#14

From that article: "if Bitcoin took the place of every Paypal transaction" "it would be worth $6905"

And then we have other articles saying Bitcoin will soon overtake PayPal:
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-set-overtake-paypal-2014/2014/05/25

And yet, Bitcoin is not being valued anywhere near $6905. What gives? Which of these articles are nonsense?

It's nice to think about anyway Cheesy
Bitcoin is the most under-valued asset on any financial market
hero member
Activity: 688
Merit: 500
ヽ( ㅇㅅㅇ)ノ ~!!
May 27, 2014, 11:15:19 AM
#13

From that article: "if Bitcoin took the place of every Paypal transaction" "it would be worth $6905"

And then we have other articles saying Bitcoin will soon overtake PayPal:
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-set-overtake-paypal-2014/2014/05/25

And yet, Bitcoin is not being valued anywhere near $6905. What gives? Which of these articles are nonsense?

It's nice to think about anyway Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 552
Merit: 501
May 27, 2014, 11:02:18 AM
#12
Are there actually any good resources/posts/articles determining the price from some kind of actual vaguely scientific economic perspective?

e.g. if bitcoin has X use as a currency, it will be valued as Y... etc... and preferably with comparisons to today's usage and growth rate (i.e. actual -facts- rather than percentages pulled out of the air). What its underlying value is as opposed to what stupid heights speculators may drive it to.

It would be nice to get a compilation of such thoughts/articles.

...

from my purely unscientific perspective, it'll surely go way past $1000, the only question is when. This year, next year, or the next decade?

Various methods have been tried but none of them are particularly helpful. However, it is quite  sobering to think that the 500th biggest company in the world (a Mexican Bank I have never heard of) has a market cap of 19.5Bn which is 2.5 x the value of all the bitcoins in the world.

http://www.ft.com/indepth/ft500 
hero member
Activity: 1106
Merit: 500
Life is short, practice empathy in your life
May 27, 2014, 10:38:03 AM
#11
If gold drops to 1K again that will form a major resistance to bitcoin going over 1k. Just like last time it topped out near gold parity.
sr. member
Activity: 952
Merit: 281
May 27, 2014, 10:35:16 AM
#10
This only means that there will be no resistance at $1000 when we get there
hero member
Activity: 715
Merit: 500
May 27, 2014, 10:31:21 AM
#9
stop this willy crap already

+1

It's more annoying than the China FUD, but at least it's not having much effect on price because those who are competent understand that it shouldn't.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
May 27, 2014, 10:29:28 AM
#8
stop this willy crap already
hero member
Activity: 715
Merit: 500
May 27, 2014, 10:06:08 AM
#7
Nonsense.

If were basing bitcoin's utility and valuation on one bot that purchased roughly $112MM, than we're very shortsighted. If you think Bitcoin's utility will one day be comparable to that of only PayPal and nothing greater, than the price would still climb to more than $1,200. And that's an incredibly conservative estimate.

http://heavy.com/tech/2013/12/how-much-bitcoin-worth-value-btc/
newbie
Activity: 3
Merit: 0
May 27, 2014, 09:52:10 AM
#6
i don't think there's going to be another markus/willy... unless something crazy like a country adopts or it gets legit mainstream acceptance like with visa/mastercard and stuff

but 1000$ is not unreasonable.
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 500
Nope..
May 27, 2014, 09:42:29 AM
#5
Are there actually any good resources/posts/articles determining the price from some kind of actual vaguely scientific economic perspective?

e.g. if bitcoin has X use as a currency, it will be valued as Y... etc... and preferably with comparisons to today's usage and growth rate (i.e. actual -facts- rather than percentages pulled out of the air). What its underlying value is as opposed to what stupid heights speculators may drive it to.

It would be nice to get a compilation of such thoughts/articles.

...

from my purely unscientific perspective, it'll surely go way past $1000, the only question is when. This year, next year, or the next decade?

I believe this is a sore subject for legacy financial gurus.  They can't apply some billshit theory or formula to give accurate assessments or predictions and this instills skepticism and wariness. 

I think it's gonna go past the moon.
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