Backed by govs: I already explained why this doesn't matter; if people don't accept a currency, it doesn't matter who prints it and who backs it. Saying "It's backed by governments" is synonymous with "We're forcing you and sometimes other nations to use our currency by subsidizing ours against theirs. We will shut down any currency used in our borders that isn't ours." A monopoly over currencies is not a worthy quality to me.
But you are not representative of the people. The US government, elected by US citizens, is representing the people, and they rule the country on behalf on the people, for them, with their agreement. That's exactly the same. It's the same people who prints and accepts USD in America, and the same people that accepts and prints EURO in Europe.
It will remain: Provide evidence of this happening. I have evidence of this
not happening; we can clearly see how many currencies have gone extinct over the course of time. Neither the USD or Bitcoin-the-currency (but not the protocol) is safe from extinction.
Fiat money exists in my country since 1795. And it will exist when I'm passing away.
I don't see any only-accepted-fiat currency disappearing in a developped European or American country.
I only see crap coins disappearing, like bitcoin. Which is actually a point:
- if you have USD, it won't disappear, or it will be replaced by a new currency, and you will be allowed to exchange freely the old currency by the new one.
- if you have some coins (like bitcoins) which are unofficial, and only used by some people and not everyone, it is likely/possible to disappear.
I can't believe that you think that bitcoins has any chance to disappear after fiat money.
Just wondering: how many fiat do you have? How many btc?
Its value is almost constant over time: You're comparing something old to something new; of course BTC is unstable right now, it has a very small userbase, compared to most nations. The only thing constant about most fiat is that it's worth less now than ever, and thus hopeless as a store of wealth.
The problem with bitcoin is that it will never grow higher, because:
1) it is unsafe for customers.
2) it is highly volatile for merchants.
3) it is not convenient to use.
4) ...
It is a great innovation. It made some people millionnaires (in usd
), maybe the founder billionnaire.
But it will remain what it is now:
- some tool to buy stuff anonymously on internet, and uncommon.
- some tool to buy drugs.
- some tool to invest online.
(- eventually a safe haven like gold for some people)
But nothing more. It is not gonna replace fiat, or even compete with it. It is clearly not designed for it, and not trustworthy enough.
Still, it does not mean that it will disappear, but people will always go to the shop buying with USD.
It is accepted everywhere: Define "it". If you went to a grocer in Norway and pulled out
this stuff, how far would you get? Chances are, the grocer will ask you to put your monopoly money away.
If you offer to send him a btc transaction, he will tell you to GTFO as well.
But if you show him some kroners (fiat), you will be fine
Guess what, it = fiat.
It is convenient to use: No more or less convenient than Bitcoin, except when you, as a businessman, have to put up with unjust chargebacks. Then it gets a little inconvenient.
From a customer point of view, I want a guarantee that if some douchedags chinese cracks the system and stole my lifetime savings,
I want it back. And quickly. It is insured by fiat, not by btc. And I can show you dozens of people crying the fuck out of them because of that.
From a customer point of view, I want to pay it cheap. I don't mind of VISA takes a 2% fee. But if I see that bitcoins price are 10% higher than fiat prices, which is currently the case, and most likely will stay that way, I don't give a shit that the merchant has no fee with bicoin and I will pay it cheaper with my CC.
It takes (AFAIK) 180 days for a CC to confirm, fees included, period. It takes Bitcoin about an hour, fees included. Without the fee, you're right; 1-3 days. Now, you can accept a CC charge instantly, and you can accept Bitcoin instantly (if you don't believe me, actually try using Bitcoin, instead of knocking it), but considering it only takes Bitcoin roughly an hour to finalize, there is far less to worry about when it comes to BTC; by the time you get 6 confirms, you know, beyond a reasonable doubt, you are in possession of that bitcoin.
180 days for a CC to confirm. That may seem awesome if you're only a consumer, but from a business point of view, along with all the fees which come with accepting CCs (hooray for convenience), it is, at best, a chore to put up with.
You are confusing 2 things:
- confirm
- proceed
CC takes 180 days to proceed, but only a couple of seconds to confirms. Bitcoins need at least one confirmation to confirms because of double spend. Depending on the point of view, we can considered it as proceeded after 1 - 2 - 6 confirmations. Bitcoins is much faster to proceed. But much longer to confirm. And the only things that matter is confirming. When you buy something, after it is confirmed, you can have it. In a shop, you can leave within 1 min, you don't have to wait with your bag for 180 days. In an hypotetical bitcoin shop, if you don't include a fee, you would have to wait 3 days before leaving the shop with what you bought.
Though there is a tiny, optional fee to using Bitcoin, it's nowhere near as big as the fee businesses pay to use CCs.
I have most of my wealth in BTC, since you're asking, because I work as a freelance artist and that's what my clients pay me with. I convert some to fiat whenever I need to pay the bills, but would pay directly with BTC if they accepted it. And the question becomes, "Well if Bitcoin is so great, why aren't businesses accepting it?" Which requires a long, drawn out answer, which can be summed up as: 1. Bitcoin is young, and 2. The whole government-backed anti-other-currencies thing the USD unfairly has.
Yes, bitcoin can be used rarely for private transactions, as an unofficial currency. I don't deny it.
But as you said in your last sentence, it will never be used widely.