Based on probabilities only! Why do you think you will win in the long term?
Poker, sports betting requires more than luck/bad luck. Try these instead.
My 2cents.
To know if a price is value or not value, it takes time.
We say closing odds at Pinnacle are usually a near perfect representation of the real probabilities of the different outcome on one event.
I think it is about the game what you played for because in dice games i think experience is not really into it because it is more likely base on luck but on the other games like card games because the experience more likely to win the game because luck is not the one who could make you win but the cards, sort of it has a low luck you need and other is strategy and experience.