Topic: Why does the halving increase the price? - page 2. (Read 429 times)

I believe, it is connected to FOMO. Halving symbolises something new, some changes. It feels like there are less and less bitcoin available. And more and more people start worrying that they don't own any so far. That is because they buy. And they notice that many people around are buying as well. And the effect becomes more massive.

Bitcoin has a success rate of 100% when you consider what happens after it complete its halving cycle. Why should we doubts that the same thing would repeat itself when it hasn't failed before. The three times, isn't out of a bigger number of attempts that you can say it doesn't have a 100% success rate. All the halving results were the same effect but just that they had different timeframe but the main point is that the price changed significantly after the halving has been completed.. Bitcoin has had all its previous halving boost its price without leaving any year untouched.

This is a pre programmed mechanism so I don't get it when people are doubting that the price will also increase this time around. The signs are already there, it isn't just because of the halving been completed that makes the price of Bitcoin to increase, there are other factors but the completion of the halving puts other factors into motion.


Naturally we tend to follow trends as humans, fomo kicks in when the price of asset begin to increase as people try to catch the train before it leaves them behind. When Bitcoin starts increasing different sets of people with different beliefs begin to take action. We have those that didn't believe the price will increase so when it begins to happen the fomo into the market. We also have those that didn't have full convictions and only bought a small portion of Bitcoin so as the see the market moving, they buy more. Basically people won't want to miss out so they'll buy more as they begin to see the price of Bitcoin increasing with all the positive sentiments surrounding Bitcoin. To be at a better position, it's better you buy when the fomo hasn't kicked in and that's by accumulating before the halving is completed.

I have been seeing people talking about the Bitcoin halving while so many do not have sufficient understanding about what it really entails. Even though we might not have experienced what halving Actually means and what it entails. We need to understand one thing which is bull run. Halving is a time when the price of Bitcoin which normally triggers the price of altcoins to go bullish. We can make good profits from halving if we know what we are doing and the best way to do that is to keep buying and holding for when the actually time will comes.
 

When in doubt, DCA is your friend to safely enter on Bitcoin without thinking too much about lower price since you will purchase in average price. It’s normal to become cautious and play safe if you knew that the price can slide down any moment but you can’t deny the fact that price can go upward continuously without giving opportunity to enter on mich lower price.

You should buy in small fraction on different time frame if you want to accumulate without worrying much if the price will dump or pump.

Many would have thought like you but to be honest, this type of thought never came to my mind when I learned about bitcoin. It is so transparent and so true that bitcoin will still follow the same pattern as it has done previously. No too many people will keep investing in a project that is not worthwhile to be invested in, someone must have seen the loophole or something that would not make anyone invest in it if there’s any one. Bitcoin price will continue to increase and surpass previous all time high after every halving, that is just an event that will continue in that manner.


Because before the halving is the time you will get to buy bitcoin at a lower price. In past events, you will only see an uprise in price after every halving and everyone believes it will still follow the same pattern even in the upcoming halving.

This can be determined on when each everyone of us made the decision on joining the bitcoin network and adopted it use for an investment, some never have that kind of knowledge of making an investment with the purpose of targeting the halving because some years back, many were only having little about the bitcoin knowledge.


Because after halving there comes bullrun and the bitcoin market price rises to a new all time high till it achieved the maximum it could.

I will not call it premature but a good thought because many of us who are not into crypto or are just starting there journey had this same thought that should we accept the old patterns as an indicator for future predictions as you said 3 times might not be enough and to be honest I also had the same thoughts when I was newbie but the number of halving was not 3 at that time.

And buying 1 btc back in time was easier than now.
Smart people invest before having and less smart people invest after halving and not smart people don't invest in BTC at all.

The 2024 halving wouldn’t instantly affect a price after it, but a close to a year after it there would be an increase in price of bitcoin. This has been the trend in the past three halving and I don’t see that changing even though the past bull run increases the price with high percentage, l think this one will not be too high since the volatility rate seems to be reducing. It is not only ETF approval that will incite a bull run Infact the ETF approval will just be like a FOMO causing a mini bull run and nothing much.


Been recognized as an official means of payment means that bitcoin is treated as legal tender, which is wrong. ETF approval doesn’t guarantee that bitcoin will officially become a legal tender, both are two different things. ETF will just drive more adoption although to me it will give government more power towards their quest to censor or centralize the bitcoin.

You’re not out of place to have made these observations and that it happens plus, we today see it for a pattern and bank on that to be the case through every other occurrence.

Well, we could blame this on the psychology of human behavior. Most times, it’s about what we already know, coming to push us towards same repetition over again due to an already established expectation thereby, creating the event (Bulls/Bears).

The halving is already a certainty, something that is independent of efforts but what comes after is based on our response to it.
The halving creates an idea of scarcity due to the reduction of block reward to miners. This in turn reduces the introduction of new Bitcoins into the market, mounts pressure on available Bitcoins in circulation, creates reasons why there should be more hodlers and as well, goes about to advertise for more patronage. It’s become a significant event in the history of cryptocurrency, field with expectation and people now bank on this for high returns.

 
No one knows the future, and at that time, BTC was not as famous as now. Forget about the past, think about the future. BTC is still a valuable band; maybe someone will say in the future that 0.3 BTC is realistic in 2023.
 
 
The answer is so simple. People choose to invest in the BTC market post-halving due to a reduction in its supply, which will increase demand, and you know that when supply becomes low and people demand anything high, it increases price pressure. Such types of events are a strategy in which investors look to invest based on historical performance.

How many people have $40 000 they can miss? I'd say 0.01%

I personally had about 70k in savings and spent 13k on 0.3 BTC. I was interested the whole year, but I was chasing the 10k low that we never hit.
I'm in doubt, whether I should buy 0.2 more or there will be a better opportunity.

I know that. But if the price keeps increasing after the halving it must be because many people are buying after the halving, or not?
It's hard for me to expect a strong price increase after the 2024 halving, while everybody knows they should be buying long before the halving.
The only argument I still see for strong price increase, is ETF approval leading to BTC being recognized as an official means of payment.

People invest massive and more after bull run. If people are not investing after bull run, the price of bitcoin will not increase. The bulls means that their are more people that are buying.

Yes an old computer is good in a way that you will remove the wifi and bluetooth modules. Sparrow can also be used, it is a good bitcoin wallet.

It's still realistic and the same questions will rise again when we're gone far and the prices are too much already.

That is because they like more confirmation that the price have already increased than to wait patiently before it goes up. We're humans and only a few believes on what we're telling to buy now and wait until the price goes up, that's their approach and strategy that's so wrong but we can't blame them.

An old desktop or laptop if you have will be enough. The important thing is to download the official wallet of Electrum from its official website because too many clones and fake out there.

It was easier to buy 1 BTC in past years, past 3 halvings, but it was harder to hold those bitcoins years ago. Because bitcoin was not too valuable years ago and people were less seriously about holding their bitcoins.

Now, you have more difficulty to accumulate 1 BTC but you will have more reasons to hold your bitcoins.

On chain stats shows that more holders have been accumulating bitcoin in last few years.
Greater than 0.1 BTC https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-0-1-btc/
Greater than 1 BTC https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-1-btc/

You even can have an air gapped wallet, free. You can use Bitcoin Core, Electrum wallet softwares and create it offline on an air gapped device. Then you will have an air gapped wallet.

[Guide] Secure air-gapped crypto wallet storage method

You're right, three data points aren't a large enough sample to definitively claim a pattern but remember that the halving happens every 4 years, so I think you can take that into consideration. It reduces the rate of new coins entering circulation potentially leading to price increase. Some investors may prefer to wait for confirmation of the impact before committing. Others might see the potential for higher returns after the event. Individual investors are the key players before and now it’s the institutional adoption for the major price appreciation.

Airgapped Wallet can be any old device like an old laptop or PC you own at home.  I tested Airgapped Wallets on some sub 30 dollar PCs and they work decent enough to be usable still.

It is currently considered a 'pattern' because it repeated three times already.  It will be considered more of a pattern the more times it will repeat itself.  Trading Analysis has patterns too but it does not mean there are exceptions however.

Why do you think people 'put more money' for its price to have an increase?  The only 'more money' they pour into Bitcoin is the money of silly people who buy Bitcoin on the Bull Run hoping they did not miss the train and will make a ton of money.  They always end up being the losers.

Bitcoins price increases due to the halving.  It becomes twice as hard to mine so in consequence in my logic it should be at least twice as pricey.  There can always be exceptions again too.  Anyway.  This is just the price we all agree on paying for a Bitcoin.  If there was not enough demand there would be a smaller price for sure.

Bitcoin price is purely determined by a combination supply and demand, and no one really understands them. Is the price growing because supply is decreasing or because demand is rising? We can't answer even such simple question, because we don't have the strong data.

One of my theories is that these cycles are a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. People look at the past pattern, assume that it will repeat and act accordingly. If the price rises before the halvening, speculators think it's a premature rally and dump their coins, causing a correction.

If you know the historical price of Bitcoin you should notice the price ranges are different every block halving because like others said the block reward for miners drops into half every 4 years.

Actually, for me that's not a good idea to invest in Bitcoin after block halving you should buy Bitcoins before block halving because if not you might be late if the price increases much before and after block halving.



I don't think you still need to buy an Airgap or hardware wallet if you already have an old PC and phone it should be enough. You can make your old PC as offline cold storage and only use it to store your private keys and sign a transaction and never connect it to the internet and install your watch-only wallet into your phone where you can monitor your wallet and make unsign transactions.

It is only when an event repeats 2 times that we say it is an accident, but if any event repeats 3 times, then we can say that this is a pattern. And if after each of the three past halving, the supply of new coins was halved and at the same time the price increased, then we can assume that after halving in 2024 we will see similar consequences.