Topic: Why has the network jumper to 14 terahashes? (Read 5464 times)

Thanks for your response.

If I were you, I would have started a thread, "Bitcoincharts WAY OFF -- here's why" and explained what you just typed -- it would have informed the community -- taught us all a little something. That's what I try to do all the time.

And there's a difference between authoritatively stating something, and musing/guessing. I always make it clear which I'm doing.

And you're right, the actual hashrate didn't go up by all that much.  I realize variance is just that -- variable. But according to Bitcoincharts, the "spike" was lasting quite a while, due (as you said) to their faulty algorithms. But I had never heard the criticism of their algorithms. I was just asking "why" -- I obviously had serious doubts about 4 TH/s being added in a few hours -- but I figured at least SOME of the spike had to be new hardware -- maybe 500 GH/s. Who knows? 
I (and others) just have to wait for guys who know to chime in and clear things up.

Angelus, I will answer, since you asked.  OP asked a legitimate question if he was looking at bitcoincharts.com

I answered him SPOT ON. Not many here even remotely know how bad variance CAN be and WILL be in the future. I know that bitcoincharts.com formula for network hashrate IS WRONG.  This was later in the thread confirmed by others. OP or whoever else thought network hashrate somehow instantly jumped from 11 Th to 15.7 Th within hours. No one bothered to check other sources or ever question what kinda formula bitcoincharts.com are using. No one using common sense, and think for a moment. If we needed all this time, years actually, to get from Satoshi 3 Mhash in 2009 to 11 Th today, how the fuck will someone add 40% of the whole network up to that moment online just like that. People like yourself ( I have nothing against, as long as info is somewhat within reasonable ) jumped on this 14 Th like hot potatoes and everyone came up with their own version of it.

Now you come up with a new chart explaining how 3 day moving average has changed. Sure chart plotted it that way because its an average. We hit those lucky rounds and what moving average does is plot it on the chart. That's all. In the meantime network hashrate didn't move for more than 50 Gh. We are still at the same 11.5 Th we have been prior to the start of the thread. Today with this chart you somehow trying to again flip the real story here in the way that you actually weren't WRONG with everything you posted in this thread. Reality is you were wrong on every single line you posted. This doesn't help the community and bitcoin project. There are 100s of new people coming here daily reading all this what seems to me mostly nonsense and they paint there picture of this community. It isn't pretty.

It might seem like I enjoy complaining, but I'm not. This is as far from the truth as it could be. I want everyone to smarten up and get more professional and think for a common goal here. Instead I mostly see GREED for fiat cash, or 101 version of some pyramid type scams or businesses that make no sense, like mining contracts that produce over 50% less bitcoins as a result for the guy that would buy a contract.  

People need to smarten up and not constantly speculate on every tiny change someone sees somewhere. People need to object when they see a bad business offer that doesn't make sense. Forum owners should step up to the game and ban all pyramid type of threads. Mods should do their work and lock tons of threads that get out of hand daily. All of what I wrote is just a tip of the iceberg.

In fairness I am new, however if your looking for something different try a day trader forum though - oh you don't want to go there?

I don't like to speculate but a big jump made me freak - my thread was a panic reaction. Perhaps these could be prevented...I've one or two ideas.

And what, pray tell, are we supposed to discuss on this mining subforum?

What would meet YOUR approval? (Not that I personally care, but just for the sake of discussion...)

I think people like you enjoy complaining, but you don't post the kind of posts you'd like to see. If you don't want to light a candle, don't curse the darkness.

Yes Angelus. All your posts in this thread are spot on !  Mine are way off !!  

All the smarts on this forum are the reason I'm coming back daily.  More mining contracts, more JPM threads, more deepbit at 51% threads, more 40% network jumps, more RALLY / CRASH  threads, more of everything ! I WANT MORE !! You people never disappoint me. Keep up the good work.

Thank you

I've noticed, a ramp up to the middle two-3 days BETWEEN difficulty, for the last 4 changes, I also suspect its a large player turning on in the middle period between  changes, this would effectively be the best time to not affect difficulty if you were a big player IMHO

And yet, it looks like the hashrate is permanently higher now.

That is, the 3-day moving average has been permanently affected -- not exactly a two-hour "luck blip":

I was really happy to see that it had dropped when I checked first thing this morning. 

The network is back down to 11.46 THash/sec on bitcoincharts.com, as a few smart people stated, this was just a bit of luck variance, not any JPMorgan conspiracy or whatever.

lol, Welcome JPMorgan!

Just read what the post was.

Now that's a refreshing spirit up in here. 

+1

That is correct, this is why if you refresh bitcoincharts every 30 minutes or so you will see the hashrate dropping. Not because people are dropping out, but simply because as the spurt gets dropped by the moving average, the apparent hash rate is calculated lower. From 16THash to 15THash to 14.5THash since I began reading this thread. We'll have to wait and see where it lands however.

I've always been under the impression that the 'Network Total' field on BitcoinCharts.com was generated from a moving average of blocks solved per hour.  Meaning a huge spurt of pools or miners getting lucky and solving a bunch of blocks for several hours would inflate the 'Network Total' field quite a bit.

Example: 8-9 blocks were being solved per hour for several hours would inflate the 'Network Total' hash by 25%-50% even though 'actual' would be much lower.

Cheers,
Kermee

Miners that focus on income based on current trading prices should be focusing on building the btc economy - win win.

now that's the last thing bitcoin needs. even more geeks.


first page, last post.. some idiot posting about 500Mhash/s on a 5870. and his 6970 apparently gets 460+Mhash/s at 950MHz.

WTF people. You can see yourselves in the posted graph that those swings in estimated hashrates happen all the time! At elast wait until the 3 day moving average takes off and then start freaking out.

I'm hoping the little guys like us can weather the storm at any difficulty.  I know I'd probably mine for BTC at a loss to "be a part of something" that I am excited about.  The question is, when will the big farms close up shop?

Not sure what algorithm gribble uses, but it's still too early to tell, we're about half way through the round, there have been a few spikes way above average hashrate, and a few days below. If this little blip continues (and my guess is it will not) we might see a larger bump than last time, but most likely not. If you notice gribbles current estimate is only 6%, which is far lower than last round (and likely not accurate, though it'd be nice).

Probably people finally getting their orders delivered (thanks NewEgg!) combined with part-time miners giving it one last go before the next difficulty bump.