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Topic: Why I think Bitcoin will not become an national currency (Read 6859 times)

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
QR Code are a start, yes. But still not many people know how QR codes work, and not many people have a QR Code App on their phones. Fundamentally, adoption is also limited by what big companies like Apple use policies to prevent BTC Apps to show up on the app store as well. The only way to get a good? wallet app is if you jailbreak your phone.
And the app is questionable in quality at best.


Blockchain app works great without jailbreak.  It's been in the app store for close to a year.  I still hate Apple, but this is no longer an issue.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 506

 If you dial a wrong number you dial again whereas you get a bitcoin address wrong... ouch! 



Not really.  There's a clever checksum.

The probability that a mistyped address is accepted as being valid is 1 in 232, that is, approximately 1 in 4.29 billion.

I type addresses all the time..  if you get a digit or two wrong a proper wallet will tell you. 
Thanks for that - That's somewhat reassuring.  Amazing that I've read so much and spent so much time here over the last few months and hadn't come across that one.  Useful to know Smiley  Still prefer the QR solution though.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 4794
. . . The probability that a mistyped address is accepted as being valid is 1 in 232, that is, approximately 1 in 4.29 billion . . . 
FTFY.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1264
Merit: 1008

 If you dial a wrong number you dial again whereas you get a bitcoin address wrong... ouch! 



Not really.  There's a clever checksum.

The probability that a mistyped address is accepted as being valid is 1 in 232, that is, approximately 1 in 4.29 billion.

I type addresses all the time..  if you get a digit or two wrong a proper wallet will tell you. 
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 506
QR Code are a start, yes. But still not many people know how QR codes work, and not many people have a QR Code App on their phones. Fundamentally, adoption is also limited by what big companies like Apple use policies to prevent BTC Apps to show up on the app store as well. The only way to get a good? wallet app is if you jailbreak your phone.
And the app is questionable in quality at best.

On QR codes I think it's just a matter of time.  People are getting more and more used to seeing them around on ads for URLs (a driving school in London even has them on their cars).  I think it is a far preferable solution than for instance phone numbers simply because it is far less error prone.  If you dial a wrong number you dial again whereas you get a bitcoin address wrong... ouch!  People got used to using email addresses and URLs but I'm guessing QR codes will be used for all these - and even maybe even phone numbers in due course.

What I'd like to see are all sites that give a bitcoin address also showing the QR code.  I tend to use my Blockchain app for day-to-day transactions even though I'm on a PC most of the time so it would be handy just to point and send.  Yesterday to buy S.Dice through Havelock I cut and paste the address into a Bitcoin QR generator I found so that I could pick that up from my smartphone.  I'm nervous enough cutting and pasting bitcoin addresses (just in case I've missed a character or that I'm pasting something from previous) let alone typing one into my smartphone!

How about an addition to the Windows dropdown menu whereby one can right click on any bitcoin address QR code and send it to our pre-selected Bitcoin wallet?

As for Apple products I get the impression the era when they could dictate due to their market lead what their users can and can't do is shortly to come to an end.  Let's not lose too much sleep over what they think!
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 506
...however we are still far in the deployment arena for BTC to be adopted by the masses.
the wallet should be layered and masked so people won't have to see a string of characters, just an e-walled with a simple name or number like a phone number (people are used to that)

Can't QR codes serve that purpose?
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Well, it is legal to start your own nation in many parts of the world.

Actually it is not "legal" (recognized is probably a better word) to form a new nation anywhere in the world, at least not one recognized by any current nation.  The "nation" club is a members only club.  Even if there is some undiscovered land (unlikely since the development of global sat mapping) as soon as it is discovered it becomes part of the closest nation.  If a new landmass was built (i.e. massive scale terraforming) it likewise would become part of the closest nation.  The club sometimes expands when existing nations are split (usually due to conflict) but that is it.

A new landmass like an artificial floating island would not necessarily just become a part of the closest nation. Use your imagination and look at the references I posted earlier! Most of your statements are incorrect and conjecture  Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 506
When countries start using it out of necessity of foresight it still won't be a national currency, just like it isn't a drug or gambling or sock currency.

Being a national currency does not mean that the currency belongs to a nation.  It just means that this nation officially uses this currency.

Same as the english language is the official language in Great-Britain, and yet english is not only used by british people.

Pedantic correction:  English isn't an official language of Great Britain - just the de facto language.  Interestingly it is an official language in Wales though Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
I don't like this talk that money is not wealth.  It is wealth,
If nobody had money, that would not be of any consequence to the total wealth of mankind, utility of all goods would still be there.
I agree with the latter statement, and I'm concerned about how you don't appear to notice how it clearly contradicts the former.

Nah. Money has no utility in itself, but it has exhange value. What is the problem?
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
I don't like this talk that money is not wealth.  It is wealth,
If nobody had money, that would not be of any consequence to the total wealth of mankind, utility of all goods would still be there.
I agree with the latter statement, and I'm concerned about how you don't appear to notice how it clearly contradicts the former.
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1010
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
About bitcoins as a central bank reserve currency: Of course it could be. The central banks (currently inflating in concert) could buy half of the existings bitcoins now

How would they buy half of the existing bitcoins?
On MtGox? It would be harder to do it later.
People don't panic as quickly anymore. You'll only see the price rise quite a bit and once it hits a certain point, folks will no longer trade bitcoins for fiat.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
About bitcoins as a central bank reserve currency: Of course it could be. The central banks (currently inflating in concert) could buy half of the existings bitcoins now

How would they buy half of the existing bitcoins?
On MtGox? It would be harder to do it later.
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1010
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
About bitcoins as a central bank reserve currency: Of course it could be. The central banks (currently inflating in concert) could buy half of the existings bitcoins now

How would they buy half of the existing bitcoins?
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
About bitcoins as a central bank reserve currency: Of course it could be. The central banks (currently inflating in concert) could buy half of the existings bitcoins now, and hump along regulating the prices with market operations - buy or sell to manipulate the exchange value. After all, the stated goal of all central banks is to stabilize the currency. Problem is, they really want to inflate it, to confiscate part of the value in the money supply for themselves. This can go on for a while with bitcoins, but sadly for them it has to stop when they have sold all their bitcoins.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
1) Bitcoin will never be a national currency for the same reason that no country will return to the Gold standard.  It is for a completely different reason

2) As the value of BTC rises it will be held by more and more people.  By your logic nobody should buy/trade/acquire any more BTC.  Half of them are already held by a tiny (globally speaking) number of people and thus outside would be better off not buying them and insider would be better off just selling them.  Of course there will never be a scenario where Bitcoin goes to being held by thousands to being held by billions.  The thousands will sell to tens of thousands who will sell to hundreds of thousands who will sell to millions.  At the point where BTC had a large enough coinsupply to be useful for even a small nation the coins wouldn't be held by thousands they would be held by tens of millions.

3) Money isn't wealth, money is an accounting system.  The rich hold a negligible rounding error of their total wealth in cash.  The poor would benefit from a currency which isn't continually debased.

Of course I don't think Bitcoin will ever become a national currency however I don't think that provides any meaningful limit on adoption.  Bitcoin could be used someday (in theory) by nation states as a strategic reserve (like Gold Bullion).

I agree. What Bitcoin does extremely well is handle small international transactions over the Internet so it has a very good chance of becoming the de-facto currency of e-commerce and small international funds transfer (such as migrant workers sending funds to their families). Could it become a reserve currency in the future? This is possible but not until the world's central banks are run by people who today are in their early 20's or teenagers. So for example take Ben Bernanke's age 59 subtract 20. This gives 39 years minimum before Bitcoin has a chance of being recognized as a reserve currency. If one uses Alan Greenspan as an example then it is more like 59 years.

I don't like this talk that money is not wealth. It is wealth, and the value is exactly the exhange value of the money, as the traders (everbody) values it. A peculiar thing about money is that it has no other value, meaning that the total money supply is of no consequence. There could be 42 million bitcoins, or just one. It would be the same. But it is still value and thus wealth to the owner.

If nobody had money, that would not be of any consequence to the total wealth of mankind, utility of all goods would still be there. Except the current state of affairs could not be achieved, because it would be difficult to exchange and therefore divide the labour and increase productivity of labour trough capital formation. The same would be true if one person owned all the bitcoins, it would be of no exchange value.

Bitcoin shares this trait with fiat money. They also have no intrinsic value, all the value is in the exchange value, or its moneyness. Of course there is a difference - the fiat money does not have a constrained supply. Hoarding money is just a choice to consume later. Some people wants to consume everything now, or even before they have it. There are lots of situations where this is sensible, for instance buy a durable good like a car or a house. Some people want to have something handy for the immediate future, for years later, and somebody also saves for the benefit of the next generation. Still, the purpose is always to consume later.

Imagine a world where food was money, for instance all the staple grains at the same time. Then saving would be a problem - you save tons of corn for instance, while other people have to starve. A bit less so with gold - if gold should again be preferred money, gold in electronics would have to yield for something less adequate. The fact that bitcoins and fiat does not have intrinsic value, is good.

In case it was not clear - intrinsic value is value other than its moneyness.

legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
1) Bitcoin will never be a national currency for the same reason that no country will return to the Gold standard.  It is for a completely different reason

2) As the value of BTC rises it will be held by more and more people.  By your logic nobody should buy/trade/acquire any more BTC.  Half of them are already held by a tiny (globally speaking) number of people and thus outside would be better off not buying them and insider would be better off just selling them.  Of course there will never be a scenario where Bitcoin goes to being held by thousands to being held by billions.  The thousands will sell to tens of thousands who will sell to hundreds of thousands who will sell to millions.  At the point where BTC had a large enough coinsupply to be useful for even a small nation the coins wouldn't be held by thousands they would be held by tens of millions.

3) Money isn't wealth, money is an accounting system.  The rich hold a negligible rounding error of their total wealth in cash.  The poor would benefit from a currency which isn't continually debased.

Of course I don't think Bitcoin will ever become a national currency however I don't think that provides any meaningful limit on adoption.  Bitcoin could be used someday (in theory) by nation states as a strategic reserve (like Gold Bullion).

I agree. What Bitcoin does extremely well is handle small international transactions over the Internet so it has a very good chance of becoming the de-facto currency of e-commerce and small international funds transfer (such as migrant workers sending funds to their families). Could it become a reserve currency in the future? This is possible but not until the world's central banks are run by people who today are in their early 20's or teenagers. So for example take Ben Bernanke's age 59 subtract 20. This gives 39 years minimum before Bitcoin has a chance of being recognized as a reserve currency. If one uses Alan Greenspan as an example then it is more like 59 years.
donator
Activity: 1419
Merit: 1015
Honestly, I've always thought Bitcoin was designed to be something more akin to gold, which means that nations will use it more as a reserve currency than anything else. The average person isn't going to like holding Bitcoin, even if it is very divisible. On top of that, colored coin is going to ruin Bitcoin's fungibility, which means it really can't be used as a "currency" anymore.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
What you are describing is the status quo, which I am suggesting we could change using the system I outlined above. Wink
sr. member
Activity: 504
Merit: 250
You do compute: English is the language that make the internet possible. The internet is a nation and is defended as such with english as the official language, what you suggest does'nt need a defined area of mud. We are a virtual nation, a hyper state (of mind). Every one that joins in is a citizen.

P2P democracy do not need borders to have impact! Property ownership however is the national state's money cow, If you want land, there are taxes to be paid as infrastructure and an army costs money.

The "Bitcoin Island" in Belize auctioned on ebay,didn't meet it's minimum bid, and is still for sale from a Florida broker.

Democratisation of money would be amazing, a constitutional right to use, accept and hold whatever you like for currency. But i'm afraid that a simple pertition won't cut it. Taxvise you are the property of the state of you citizenship. If you work on-line in another country you are taxed at home, they own your production capacity, end of story.

Sadly we do not live in post dictatorship world, we are owned.


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