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Topic: Why is bitcoin now so absurdly stable when priced in USD? (Read 4799 times)

legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1001
Revolutionizing Brokerage of Personal Data
Offer and demand of bitcoins is mainly speculation (gambling) instead of a real use of the currency. This way the behavior of the price is uncertain (some periods of high volatility, others of high stability).
Store of value is a very real and valid use of a currency and some might question whether the numbers on their bank accounts really do provide this feature in times like these. I'm pretty sure that a good percentage of people speculating on Mt. Gox simply do so because they actually just want to hold a part of their wealth in Bitcoins but don't want to lose out because of its volatility.

In order to fix this problem we need more entrepreneurs, engineers and developers (real work), and less economists, speculators and gamblers (zero-sum game).
While i totally agree that this would be a good thing, Bitcoin does have some unique properties all by itself which might make it appealing in the current phase of global economic uncertainty. I'd never advocate Bitcoin as a safe investment but to diversify some of your holdings into Bitcoin is surely a rational choice for many people. Think about it: even if there was not a single merchant accepting Bitcoin by itself, it would still be valuable as a very secure, non-inflatable, cheap and easy to transfer, global unit of account together with a pretty reliable transaction system that cannot realistically be shut down. There's not much else on earth fitting this description.

Oh and volatility will certainly come back - no worries Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1105
WalletScrutiny.com
hagnahh … and Gox got me again. My cash is in limbo and I sent it when the rate was around 5.10 every other hour. Somehow I bet they will report my cash incoming when we see a 6.
Last time I sent money to them the price was at 2$ and they finally charged it when we were back at 4$. Sad I want a fast track.
Simple.... BitInstant  Wink

Ok, so how exactly would that work when I only have German and Chilean bank accounts? With my expectations looking at the totally vanishing market depth at the bitcoin side, I would really not mind paying some % to get money there *now*.

Yeah, BITINSTANT listen up: WHY U DONT HAVE UROP BANK ACCOUNT!?
BECAUSE YORUP IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE, THATS WHY Tongue
This is are REEZON to throw in the saving belt, not to let us drown without merxy isn't it? Shouldn't BitInstant hire people in Greece now to sell Bitcoin in the street? Wink
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
hagnahh … and Gox got me again. My cash is in limbo and I sent it when the rate was around 5.10 every other hour. Somehow I bet they will report my cash incoming when we see a 6.
Last time I sent money to them the price was at 2$ and they finally charged it when we were back at 4$. Sad I want a fast track.
Simple.... BitInstant  Wink

Ok, so how exactly would that work when I only have German and Chilean bank accounts? With my expectations looking at the totally vanishing market depth at the bitcoin side, I would really not mind paying some % to get money there *now*.

Yeah, BITINSTANT listen up: WHY U DONT HAVE UROP BANK ACCOUNT!?
BECAUSE YORUP IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE, THATS WHY Tongue

In which case Germany will be the only ones with any money left there. His acct is in Germany, so why no instant deposit? ;p
rjk
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
1ngldh
hagnahh … and Gox got me again. My cash is in limbo and I sent it when the rate was around 5.10 every other hour. Somehow I bet they will report my cash incoming when we see a 6.
Last time I sent money to them the price was at 2$ and they finally charged it when we were back at 4$. Sad I want a fast track.
Simple.... BitInstant  Wink

Ok, so how exactly would that work when I only have German and Chilean bank accounts? With my expectations looking at the totally vanishing market depth at the bitcoin side, I would really not mind paying some % to get money there *now*.

Yeah, BITINSTANT listen up: WHY U DONT HAVE UROP BANK ACCOUNT!?
BECAUSE YORUP IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE, THATS WHY Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
hagnahh … and Gox got me again. My cash is in limbo and I sent it when the rate was around 5.10 every other hour. Somehow I bet they will report my cash incoming when we see a 6.
Last time I sent money to them the price was at 2$ and they finally charged it when we were back at 4$. Sad I want a fast track.
Simple.... BitInstant  Wink

Ok, so how exactly would that work when I only have German and Chilean bank accounts? With my expectations looking at the totally vanishing market depth at the bitcoin side, I would really not mind paying some % to get money there *now*.

Yeah, BITINSTANT listen up: WHY U DONT HAVE UROP BANK ACCOUNT!?
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1105
WalletScrutiny.com
hagnahh … and Gox got me again. My cash is in limbo and I sent it when the rate was around 5.10 every other hour. Somehow I bet they will report my cash incoming when we see a 6.
Last time I sent money to them the price was at 2$ and they finally charged it when we were back at 4$. Sad I want a fast track.
Simple.... BitInstant  Wink

Ok, so how exactly would that work when I only have German and Chilean bank accounts? With my expectations looking at the totally vanishing market depth at the bitcoin side, I would really not mind paying some % to get money there *now*.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
Bitcoin Mayor of Las Vegas
Simple.... BitInstant  Wink

I'ma let you finish, but lemme say it like dis...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKEk7b2vfoQ
Jan
legendary
Activity: 1043
Merit: 1002
hagnahh … and Gox got me again. My cash is in limbo and I sent it when the rate was around 5.10 every other hour. Somehow I bet they will report my cash incoming when we see a 6.
Last time I sent money to them the price was at 2$ and they finally charged it when we were back at 4$. Sad I want a fast track.
Simple.... BitInstant  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1105
WalletScrutiny.com
hagnahh … and Gox got me again. My cash is in limbo and I sent it when the rate was around 5.10 every other hour. Somehow I bet they will report my cash incoming when we see a 6.
Last time I sent money to them the price was at 2$ and they finally charged it when we were back at 4$. Sad I want a fast track.
member
Activity: 93
Merit: 10
Stability ends the closer we get to December.
What's in December again? Is it that decrease to 25BTC per block as opposed to 50BTC?
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
Lots of buyers vs. sellers on mt gox as I type this, and the price is creeping upwards.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Stability ends the closer we get to December.

I'm still not so sure how unstable it may become. I can see however that the price will continue to creep upwards the closer we get as less newly created bitcoins make their way to market. The closer we get to that magic date the more BTC holders will speculate about the things to come. Many may become more tight fisted the closer we get.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
Bitcoin Mayor of Las Vegas
Stability ends the closer we get to December.
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
So everyday over the last 6months+ people moaned that BTC isnt stable enough for realworld usage and then it is stable for months and people moan its too stable.

Personally I love the "new BTC" stability.  I have been selling wireless refills on the forum and the exchange rate for my last  10 orders has been: 5.11
5.13
5.12
5.14
5.14
5.13
5.12
5.14
5.15
5.14

Hell if I had just used one value and stuck with it pretty much would have been a wash.  A "five spot" per coin is a nice psychological round number.  I love it, although I can see why the speculators hate it.  They make money (or at least have the potential to make/lose money) on volatility.  The loss of leverage combined with a fall in volatility is a 1-2 punch.
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
But, is it a good thing, this stability? However the dollar and the euro more so, are inflating. Up to that, national inflation (not sure how that scales up to the rest of the EU) is near 2%, still BTC to USD remains stable, accually BTC is inflating as much as USD.

Given BTC money supply is growing by almost 30% having only 2% price inflation is pretty impressive.  Still there is an obvious upward trend.

It is possible for day to day (and hour to hour volatility) to be reduced without affecting the long term trend.  For example imagine you think BTC will apreciate 35% over the next year.  That is <0.1% daily.  It is possible for BTC to grow 0.1% daily having 20% daily volatility or having 2% daily volatility.  At the end of the year it will still be 35% higher but I think you can see why the "smoother road" of the later is superior for those using BTC as a medium of exchange.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
So everyday over the last 6months+ people moaned that BTC isnt stable enough for realworld usage and then it is stable for months and people moan its too stable.

Im starting to think the bitcoin community is psychotic.
member
Activity: 85
Merit: 10
But, is it a good thing, this stability? However the dollar and the euro more so, are inflating. Up to that, national inflation (not sure how that scales up to the rest of the EU) is near 2%, still BTC to USD remains stable, accually BTC is inflating as much as USD.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1009
In order to fix this problem we need more entrepreneurs, engineers and developers (real work), and less economists, speculators and gamblers (zero-sum game).
Bit-Pay says that the transaction volume they are processing has tripled each month for the last three months. They wouldn't be able to grow like that if the problem you mention wasn't already being fixed.
hero member
Activity: 950
Merit: 1001
Offer and demand of bitcoins is mainly speculation (gambling) instead of a real use of the currency. This way the behavior of the price is uncertain (some periods of high volatility, others of high stability).

In order to fix this problem we need more entrepreneurs, engineers and developers (real work), and less economists, speculators and gamblers (zero-sum game).
I respectfully disagree. Speculation may be near zero-sum for the professionals, but for the rest of us they're adding liquidity. From liquidity comes stability. Remember that every time you sell something for bitcoin you're gambling on bitcoin's future value (minimum 10 minute bets).

Economists are positive-sum. They contribute valuable ideas while asking little (if anything) in return.

There are millions of ideas, projects and systems that were infeasible before Bitcoin (due to transaction costs) but now are fully feasible. The success of Bitcoin is our responsibility.
Now THAT I can get behind 100%! Coasian solutions spring to mind. Once we use cryptocurrency to efficiently handle externalities, it will be an enormous boon to humankind.
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