Topic: Why is Butterfly Labs so secretive? - page 4. (Read 7228 times)

(I can't believe that I'm using this argument form, but it seems appropriate)

Because... Minecraft

Because... Kickstarter

Because... Duke Nukem Forever (and ever)

So, how many cores did Apple say the iPhone 5 has? Graphics Cores? Clock Speed? Look at the spec sheet and tell me please: http://www.apple.com/asia/iphone/iphone-5/specs.html

Oh that's right, Apple does not talk about the inside of the A6 processor, just how it performs

Yeah, go talk to your State AG, or call the BBB and see what they have to say.

BFL has made a good faith effort to provide sufficient information regarding the product that they are producing, the specifications that it operates within, renderings of boards, updates on production facilities, staff, CRM implementation, Chip IP Overview, test methods, and even a couple of statements about what impact their products might have on the network. This is in addition to the already sufficient prior history they have created with their FPGA products.

Seriously? Snake Oil? They have gotten way past that burden already.

Manufacturers are not required to divulge everything about their product, only enough to sell it (and comply with some very specific rules for safety and licensing reasons)

100% correct... They wouldn't be spending so much on advertising if this wasn't the case.

maybe they are afraid of competition

so they dont want to disclose anything

Go look up the story of the Apple 1...

You are NOT talking about a a mature market, BitCoin is in it's early childhood still.

They sell SHA256 processors whos talking about bitcoins? Joking. I agree with you meatball, just wanted to show some things people tend to overlook.

You are being a bit naive in your assumption that the information about process node does not matter. If it didn't, then why would you be asking?

In the world of Intel and AMD a new process node is developed internally or by their partners (GlobalFoundries is not AMD remember) they have to do a lot of R&D and spend billions of dollars building what are essentially building-sized machines that work on parts at the nanometer level. Because of these lead times it can take 5-7 years for a process node to make it off the drawing board and into prodution, which means when Intel announces details about the technology 1-3 years in advance, they know that it is hopelessly late for AMD to match the technology in the same time frame. Add to that the dominant position that Intel holds, and you have a recipe where Intel can trickle out advances instead of having to scramble, "so who cares about bragging!"

In the case of BitCoin ASIC manufacturers we are talking about a component that can be manufactures on several technologies including the relatively ancient 130nm (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/130_nanometer, 10 years since Intel used it for a CPU) all the way up to more modern tech in the 28-55nm range (I'm assuming that the 22nm Intel process is blisteringly expensive.)

So what happens if everyone build their first generation on 130nm? Then it does not really matter, and we are likely to see an orderly stair-step through process nodes as we get closer and closer to the Moore's Law ideal.

But what happens if BFL got access to 28nm (I have no evidence that they have, in fact I doubt they have done anything smaller than 90nm, just a thought experiment) and fabbed their first gen chip with that? Then we have one player that can adjust firmware to scale clockspeed (and hidden hashing cores?) to undercut their competition (or eliminate competitors ROI and drive them out of business), or just to make an insane profit. This has a chance of ending in a monopoly for a while, but more likely it would lead to a vicious race to the bottom that would see negative ROI on all the gear sold today.

We have seen 5 different ASIC projects that are all moving from start to completion in a 6 month period. This means we can assume that the competition can adopt matching technology (on an open market, not creating each process node themselves) in the same timeframe. So if BFL comes out with 200Gh/s chips on 28nm (totally made up numbers), we can expect their competition to match it and atempt to take market share within 6 months. Once the technology can't exceed a Moore's Law rate (due to catching up on more modern process nodes) the prices will start to wall significantly as well until BFL and others are running a 5-20% margin instead of the (assumed but almost certain) 100%-500% they are running today.

Personally I'm hoping it remains too expensive to move to the denser nodes until BTC gets higher, but at some point big players might want in and they will outspend the community in a heartbeat if they see an advantage.

Everything about BTC is a gamble.  You shouldn't be gambling any money you aren't prepared to lose...

I did read it, but I feel it still to be wrong. The PCB design has not changed that is the easy part, they should in theory be able to take the ASCI and drop it on a single pcb..... So your telling me they are using a different PCB and a ASIC then the one they are going to release give me a break. The chips are built around the PCB if it be 1 chip or 10 chips, to not have them done by prototype would be a stupid. Why would you take a proto type chip and put it on a pcb design you do not intend on using? So whats to say the chip will work on the pcb you change to... kinda a gamble wouldn't you say?

you have a quite right. I mean companies producing chips.  BFL accustomed us to give evidence of their work, do you  remember  granny making FPGA board? They gave us a lot of pictures to authenticate, now nothing. I am disappointed

Maybe its because BFL is worried they can't deliver on their promises.

They are secretive because they lack confidence in their abilities.

Maybe they don't want their ex-wife finding out how much money they are making.

Yes. Yes I do. Missing deadlines is not a new invention unique to BFL or Bitcoin.


Because no company is actually required to give you any of this information, you're just spoiled by the radical transparency of most Bitcoin ventures. BFL isn't doing anything that Samsung, Intel et al wouldn't do.




Consumer rights mean I can't sell you something with claims and then have the product fall short of those claims. If the final product falls short of claims then I'm required to refund your money if so requested. That's not just law, that's good business and it's what BFL did when their FPGA line fell short of expectations.

They have "told us what it is" within acceptable legal limits. We have specs, we've been told what the products should do and what kind of power consumption we should expect. If the final product falls short of these claims, then I'm sure we'll see a refund option just like we did with the FPGAs. Manufacturers aren't required to prove to you what their product contains, what manufacturing process they used or any of this other nonsense - they're only required to deliver something that does what they claim it will. Specs were available at the time of preorder and the only change since then has been in a positive direction. As for Intel showing prototypes, well frankly they can afford to. When you're pioneering the processes that make the newest fastest smallest chips, the secret is in the process not the final product. The most AMD could do with an 11nm Intel chip without holding it in their hands and putting it under a microscope is say "yeah that looks about the right size for 11nm."

There is a lot of naivety around business practices amongst some members of this forum.

I think you should all get used to tight lips, because if Bitcoin goes mainstream as we hope it will, you will see many more new ventures popping up who are just as secretive.

Companies do not exist to give you information on your timetable, costing them an edge. They exist to make money, and will give you exactly as much as they want to, exactly when they want to.

And ANOTHER one who doesn't read before posting:

People know they are buying a video game and they have a ERSB rating just for that reason lol. We think we are buying a product that we think will do this. But the company will not show it. Video games do previews at trade shows of new games...... BFL brought there NES when they should have shown the WII.

? So game dev's take pre orders months prior to the game even being finished? I really doubt this ever happens.... I'll bet most take pre orders on games that have a beta released already.


This is not a game though... well it sorta is

You know how many MMO's/video games this happens to?  If you're not happy, don't buy BFL.  If you've already pre-ordered and aren't happy, then contact BFL and ask for a refund.  Everyone that has done that has gotten their money back.

Why don't you all just chill for a few weeks and there will likely be tons of crap floating around as ASIC's start shipping.  If you don't have patience then you shouldn't be in the BTC game.

Right but they accept pre-orders on a set date... Do you think Apple or a game producer would get away with taking pre-orders with a release date of Oct 28th 2012 and not ship until 6 months later?