Why martingale is PURE SHIT. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Betwrong

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Quote from: Symphonized on September 13, 2018, 06:21:06 PM

Quote from: Omikifuse on September 13, 2018, 04:37:19 PM

It works, until it doesn't and you lose really big.
It is going to happens if you keep trying, for sure

Unless you change your strategy and still martingale your way out of it Wink

What do you mean by "change your strategy"? Idk, maybe you are sarcastic, but not everyone will get your sarcasm here, so I'll clarify. It doesn't matter how many times you change your strategy and which strategy you use because whether you win or not, always depends solely on luck. You can win ten times in a row, and win the eleventh time right after that. And, on the other hand, you can lose ten times in a row, and there's no guarantee whatsoever that you will win your eleventh bet.

wxa7115

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Anyone that is interested about martingale can find that is a system that cannot give you profits in the long term in five minutes thanks to the Internet and yet people still try the system, there are many reasons for that but one of the reasons that I find most commonly given by people is that people tend to trust their own experiences a lot more than mathematics and probabilities.

People use martingale and at first the system may seem to work and that is why they keep applying it even when you show them evidence that is mathematically impossible for them to win in the long term, they prefer to trust their own experiences only to find out in the end that your warnings were correct when they lose all their money.

crwth

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Quote from: Pattart on September 14, 2018, 12:31:45 AM

Quote from: gabmen on September 11, 2018, 02:16:26 PM

Quote from: BALIK on September 11, 2018, 12:13:49 PM

I'm legit sick of hearing people talking about their dice strategy, or their blackjack strategy etc. There is absolutely nothing you can do to defeat the house edge on these games other than cheating, face it people, your strategy is bullshit, you just go completely lucky and you will get rekt eventually if you continue with your delusions.

Yeah dice is a game of streaks and whether people accept it or not, it's not them or their strategies that'll determine the outcome but pure luck. A couple of losing streaks could use up all your money with martingale.

Including martingale, how great you are to use and formulate strategies in dice, you will not be able to beat a house in the long run,
you can profit in the short term, but after that you will lose money because in the end the house will win..

That’s what I think so too. If you manage to win when using the martingale strategy, you should just stop. Sometimes what I do is I pause for an our or so then start doing it again. It’s like continuous betting without risking of continuous betting. Not that it’s always going to work but your mind can rest and feel like you have already a great outcome and you could stop.

Pattart

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Quote from: gabmen on September 11, 2018, 02:16:26 PM

Quote from: BALIK on September 11, 2018, 12:13:49 PM

I'm legit sick of hearing people talking about their dice strategy, or their blackjack strategy etc. There is absolutely nothing you can do to defeat the house edge on these games other than cheating, face it people, your strategy is bullshit, you just go completely lucky and you will get rekt eventually if you continue with your delusions.

Yeah dice is a game of streaks and whether people accept it or not, it's not them or their strategies that'll determine the outcome but pure luck. A couple of losing streaks could use up all your money with martingale.

Including martingale, how great you are to use and formulate strategies in dice, you will not be able to beat a house in the long run,
you can profit in the short term, but after that you will lose money because in the end the house will win..

Caladonian

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Quote from: crwth on September 13, 2018, 03:56:42 AM

Quote from: Sukut on September 12, 2018, 05:44:07 PM

Sounds like someone lost big money to me Cheesy

Probably the only time that it could really work is that when you stopped playing when you already won. You think it doesn’t work, but it does work in a way. Just not all the time. Especially when you continuously gamble. I hope he gets over it fast.

If experienced wise, maybe some chances of earning some little profits out from this system will work, but in the long run we read and heard a lots
of stories about failing after trying to use this strategy, it will completely burned you out as desperation and together with greediness will showed up
while you are inside the house, you will just realized it when you already out of money.

Janation

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Quote from: Script3d on September 13, 2018, 11:53:40 AM

Quote from: shanem on September 13, 2018, 05:25:31 AM

Quote from: btctalk4life on September 13, 2018, 03:58:41 AM

Quote from: crwth on September 13, 2018, 03:56:42 AM

Quote from: Sukut on September 12, 2018, 05:44:07 PM

Sounds like someone lost big money to me Cheesy

Probably the only time that it could really work is that when you stopped playing when you already won. You think it doesn’t work, but it does work in a way. Just not all the time. Especially when you continuously gamble. I hope he gets over it fast.

That's it. You CAN get profits using martingale strategy, but you needs to know when to stop when using martingale. I mean, martingale is not completely 100% shit lol.

Yes, you can get profits using martingale strategy but the problem is losses are extremely huge if an event happens many times in a row. I am sure you don't have unlimited bankroll. I would rather divide my bankroll into stakes and bet normally if you depend on luck to win to win your bet.

you can get profit with martingale strategy but nowhere if you just bet randomly and the risk of losing is very high even if you start with 1 satoshi bet, using it its not worth it , yeah just do random bets and rely on luck and its either 50/50 you go out with profit or go out broke.

Martingale is a great strategy, really but the thing is that these strategy requires massive capital or money so you can really see the results.

Gambling is a game of luck, it has a high risk game and when you are using the martingale strategy, you are adding another risk that can cause your gambling activity to be on the losing side. Better do some quick calculations everytime you bet to check your balance and maybe your possibility of winning.

crwth

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Quote from: Script3d on September 13, 2018, 11:53:40 AM

Quote from: shanem on September 13, 2018, 05:25:31 AM

Quote from: btctalk4life on September 13, 2018, 03:58:41 AM

Quote from: crwth on September 13, 2018, 03:56:42 AM

Quote from: Sukut on September 12, 2018, 05:44:07 PM

Sounds like someone lost big money to me Cheesy

Probably the only time that it could really work is that when you stopped playing when you already won. You think it doesn’t work, but it does work in a way. Just not all the time. Especially when you continuously gamble. I hope he gets over it fast.

That's it. You CAN get profits using martingale strategy, but you needs to know when to stop when using martingale. I mean, martingale is not completely 100% shit lol.

Yes, you can get profits using martingale strategy but the problem is losses are extremely huge if an event happens many times in a row. I am sure you don't have unlimited bankroll. I would rather divide my bankroll into stakes and bet normally if you depend on luck to win to win your bet.

you can get profit with martingale strategy but nowhere if you just bet randomly and the risk of losing is very high even if you start with 1 satoshi bet, using it its not worth it , yeah just do random bets and rely on luck and its either 50/50 you go out with profit or go out broke.

That's what I do now, most of the time. Just 50/50 knowing I only got a 49.5% chance, depending on the house advantage. Yeah, sometimes it is worth it, sometimes it's not. It would be worth it if you just stopped once you have won. Cheesy

You only need a few bets in my opinion.

Symphonized

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Quote from: Omikifuse on September 13, 2018, 04:37:19 PM

It works, until it doesn't and you lose really big.
It is going to happens if you keep trying, for sure

Unless you change your strategy and still martingale your way out of it Wink

Omikifuse

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It works, until it doesn't and you lose really big.
It is going to happens if you keep trying, for sure

Script3d

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Quote from: shanem on September 13, 2018, 05:25:31 AM

Quote from: btctalk4life on September 13, 2018, 03:58:41 AM

Quote from: crwth on September 13, 2018, 03:56:42 AM

Quote from: Sukut on September 12, 2018, 05:44:07 PM

Sounds like someone lost big money to me Cheesy

Probably the only time that it could really work is that when you stopped playing when you already won. You think it doesn’t work, but it does work in a way. Just not all the time. Especially when you continuously gamble. I hope he gets over it fast.

That's it. You CAN get profits using martingale strategy, but you needs to know when to stop when using martingale. I mean, martingale is not completely 100% shit lol.

Yes, you can get profits using martingale strategy but the problem is losses are extremely huge if an event happens many times in a row. I am sure you don't have unlimited bankroll. I would rather divide my bankroll into stakes and bet normally if you depend on luck to win to win your bet.

you can get profit with martingale strategy but nowhere if you just bet randomly and the risk of losing is very high even if you start with 1 satoshi bet, using it its not worth it , yeah just do random bets and rely on luck and its either 50/50 you go out with profit or go out broke.

aencarnaci

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Quote from: milewilda on September 04, 2018, 03:05:56 PM

Martingale strategy is classic and been used still upto nowadays but for newbie or new gamblers they do have different mindset and appreciation with this common strategy.They do saw some people who make big profits but they dont know that theres always a very big risk behind it before they do attain those amounts.

Yeah, there is absolutely no doubt that martingale strategy can be classy but the thing here is that people focus so much attention on it so much thinking it is just the best way for them to start making shit load of money. If it is by that way, we all would have been using martingale strategy, and with everyone winning, what is going to be left of the casino owners ? One thing a lot of people do not think. As long as the casino owners keep making huge profit, so many people are still losing whether they are using martingale, labouchere or whatever.

Quote from: Kevin77 on September 12, 2018, 04:07:37 AM

Mathematical things will never react based on environments. But unfortunately, by keeping the full faith on those gambling houses, we do get ready to call one mathematical formula as a pure shit. Ridiculous gamblers Shocked

.

You sound like that you are not keeping faith on the algorithms which are being used by gambling houses. That may be the actual game changer here but what to do the entire community is discussing about the mathematical things alone.

shanem

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Quote from: btctalk4life on September 13, 2018, 03:58:41 AM

Quote from: crwth on September 13, 2018, 03:56:42 AM

Quote from: Sukut on September 12, 2018, 05:44:07 PM

Sounds like someone lost big money to me Cheesy

Probably the only time that it could really work is that when you stopped playing when you already won. You think it doesn’t work, but it does work in a way. Just not all the time. Especially when you continuously gamble. I hope he gets over it fast.

That's it. You CAN get profits using martingale strategy, but you needs to know when to stop when using martingale. I mean, martingale is not completely 100% shit lol.

Yes, you can get profits using martingale strategy but the problem is losses are extremely huge if an event happens many times in a row. I am sure you don't have unlimited bankroll. I would rather divide my bankroll into stakes and bet normally if you depend on luck to win to win your bet.

btctalk4life

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Quote from: crwth on September 13, 2018, 03:56:42 AM

Quote from: Sukut on September 12, 2018, 05:44:07 PM

Sounds like someone lost big money to me Cheesy

Probably the only time that it could really work is that when you stopped playing when you already won. You think it doesn’t work, but it does work in a way. Just not all the time. Especially when you continuously gamble. I hope he gets over it fast.

That's it. You CAN get profits using martingale strategy, but you needs to know when to stop when using martingale. I mean, martingale is not completely 100% shit lol.

crwth

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Quote from: Sukut on September 12, 2018, 05:44:07 PM

Sounds like someone lost big money to me Cheesy

Probably the only time that it could really work is that when you stopped playing when you already won. You think it doesn’t work, but it does work in a way. Just not all the time. Especially when you continuously gamble. I hope he gets over it fast.

ocid

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Quote from: nydiacaskey01 on September 12, 2018, 07:51:52 PM

It's pure sh*t because it doesn't work. I call it pure sh*t not because it didn't work for me but because the strategy benefits the bank or the owner. Imagine how much you need to stake and how many tries you need to make before you can recover the loss that you made on the first 3 tries that failed to give you profits.

maybe the strategy can only work if we are having good luck, but if it is able to be done repeatedly, most of these strategies only make lust because they expect a bigger victory but most of those who do it will only experience a huge defeat.

nydiacaskey01

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It's pure sh*t because it doesn't work. I call it pure sh*t not because it didn't work for me but because the strategy benefits the bank or the owner. Imagine how much you need to stake and how many tries you need to make before you can recover the loss that you made on the first 3 tries that failed to give you profits.

Sukut

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Sounds like someone lost big money to me Cheesy

Taki

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I also do not understand those people who promote martingale strategy of betting, they must be a casino's agents or just people who come to gamble with very big amount of money to spend. I also tried the strategy on dice games and I simply lost everything, so I do not even try to play it again,it is worthless.

vd309

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I posted my stats for 100k bets using martingale in another thread and I'd share it here as well: https://imgur.com/a/RnLeLAg
I've used 14 strike stop-loss rule, so on every 14 loses in a row I take the loss and start again. This should happened around 1 out of 14250 times and is calculated by taking the chance to lose 0.505^14 (because the 1% edge). You can see I didn't hit the stop loss for over 60k bets then hit twice in couple of thousand. I guess luck is pretty big factor even in that 100k sample and finished on positive side. Martingale isn't a winning strategy but it is as valid as other strategies facing the provably fair dice on 1% edge. It is just a method of play.

kurian

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Quote from: crwth on September 12, 2018, 05:24:13 AM

Quote from: Kevin77 on September 12, 2018, 04:07:37 AM

Quote from: kurian on September 06, 2018, 01:05:51 PM

I have found a well explained post from an another topic which would obviously make you understand why Martingale won't work for long. It is not worth to risk a large amount of money for a small profit. No matter how much bankroll you have, this strategy could wipe out the entire balance as simple as that.

A well explained post indeed, I must say. I have argued with certain people in the past about things like this and how long streak of losses can hit your game and then you are left with nothing, this certainly is a mathematical representation of what happens with just only 20 streaks which is something that can easily be seen and a lot of people tend to discard. At 20 streaks of losses, such individual is already at a loss of a total of 1048575sats, over pursuing 1 satoshi. That is like taking a lot of risk over something insubstantial.

I do see many gambler here are sharing about their 30+ losing streaks also. Still, I am not seeing any possibilities for such things to happen in real life but more frequently happening with online environments. I mean where is the actual problem is occurring ? Concluding this mathematical formula as not suitable will ignore the basics of probabilities and permutation ?

Mathematical things will never react based on environments. But unfortunately, by keeping the full faith on those gambling houses, we do get ready to call one mathematical formula as a pure shit. Ridiculous gamblers Shocked

.

Well I guess what happens happens whether it should be positive or negative, it happened already and you can never get it back. And what caused it? When gambling, it’s greediness and it doesn’t serve anyone or anything else. Risking everything would mean total devastation of your balance. For mathematics, it just happens to be that lucky strike.

Exactly! When we use martingale strategy we double on every loss we make. For the first couple of bets the amount to recover may be small but, eventually we would risk big amount doubling on losses. That's how we end up busting the entire balance. Actually we are hoping to recover everything with a one last bet (Most probably it won't happen xD).

Topic: Why martingale is PURE SHIT. (Read 2141 times)