Why martingale is PURE SHIT. - page 3.

Don Pedro Dinero

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Quote from: LoyceV on August 28, 2018, 08:41:25 AM

Gamblers want (and need!) to have the illusion they can influence the outcome of the game. And it's part of the fun (or addiction) of playing.

Mathematically, the best thing to do is lower the house edge. That means don't wager the same money more than once. Martingale leads to a large house edge, meaning on average you win more.
The best way to get the lowest possible house edge is to place only one YOLO bet (all-in) at any multiplier you desire. After that, win or lose, don't ever come back!
But that's math, not fun, and most gamblers don't play for the best chances based on math.

The funny thing about Martingale is that new gamblers all think they've invented it Cheesy

I've been there too: "wait a minute, if I just double this, I can win back everything and turn a profit!"

I totally agree, and I’ve said that some times on this board, although using other terms. And I’ve sometimes done it: I’m not too keen on casino games as I play poker where I have edge vs other players and I know I don’t have edge vs the casino but at certain times I’ve made one or two low-odds high-reward bets just to try my luck. Other “strategies” apart from that one will lose money long term.

If you play for fun or entertainment and you get some money from time to time (although losing long-term) it is different matter entirely.

geopolisch

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Quote from: kurian on August 29, 2018, 03:44:46 AM

On prediction games, Martingale is not the only failed strategy. Every other strategy would turn into pure shit if we use it for long term. When we use martingale, it works for some time and we keep on playing then, busting all our balance at the end. It is us who make martingale a 'pure shit'. We understand the outcomes of using same strategy for long and we keep on doing it.

Exactly! This is gambling and it is not like some business venture or some service you want to render and would require you to make use of some skills or strategies to get the best of it. This is centered on pure basic luck and if anyone gets too cozy making use of strategy, whether martingale, labouchere, taking craps odds or whatsoever strategy you think you have, you will still end up losing at the end of it all.

Like you said, a lot of people still understand this but they just keep hoping that one day it would work for them. That is like repeating the same thing and expecting different results.

StarofBTC

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Quote from: AT101ET on August 27, 2018, 03:24:58 PM

Most these strategies don’t work. This is just another such example where logic is impeded by greed.

Logic impeded by greed indeed. Everything about trying to find a strategy all balls down to people or gamblers consoling themselves on a solution that can work and a reason to gamble further.

Logically and in reality, gambling is meant to make the gambler lose money, otherwise it would never be a profitable venture for the casino or gambling platform owners and I believe that is one thing a lot of greedy gamblers do not get to think about before they go ahead gambling.

el kaka22

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Quote from: btcdevil on August 28, 2018, 05:02:18 PM

Just play for some bets and when you win just leave for the day and come fresh next day. That way you can win for some time but it is better to leave it when you are in profit and go for sports betting or else better leave the gambling and better do some job and be happy in life with what you have.

I still do not know why a lot of people caption that as beginner's luck when indeed it is just the system trying to get you comfortable with your bets as a beginner so at a point you can get to put in more in the long run with the hope things will always work out in your favor.

Well, that is what I want to believe most online gambling sites are usually after. The get to play with your mindset, fine tune it to their favor and then when the time comes, they hit you so hard, you won't know where the pain is coming from. Worst of all, put your hopes in strategy and you will be counting your losses pretty fast and even adding an addiction to your profile.

adaseb

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I am pretty sure we all fell for the easy martingale trick, especially when it comes to dice.

We all played with 50/50 win rate and whenever we got a loss, we doubled our bet until we won and broke-even. It was almost like free money until we got like 15 nasty red losses in a row.

Basically a better strategy is to just do reverse martingale and if you get lucky you can win some huge amounts with little risk.

Bet 10 Satoshi's and if you win... bet 20 Satoshi's. If you lose, you keep betting 10 Satoshi's and never more. If you win and lose again, then you only lose 10 Satoshi's and no more.

This way you can control your losses and if you get lucky with 20 wins in a row your 10 Satoshi base bet will be a huge winner on the 19th win. However many emotions to do this one right because most will stop playing after 7-8 wins.

BlueStackz

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Quote from: LoyceV on August 28, 2018, 08:41:25 AM

Gamblers want (and need!) to have the illusion they can influence the outcome of the game. And it's part of the fun (or addiction) of playing.

Mathematically, the best thing to do is lower the house edge. That means don't wager the same money more than once. Martingale leads to a large house edge, meaning on average you win more.
The best way to get the lowest possible house edge is to place only one YOLO bet (all-in) at any multiplier you desire. After that, win or lose, don't ever come back!
But that's math, not fun, and most gamblers don't play for the best chances based on math.

The funny thing about Martingale is that new gamblers all think they've invented it Cheesy

I've been there too: "wait a minute, if I just double this, I can win back everything and turn a profit!"

It is always going to be a loss - more loss strategy as far as I am concerned. If everyone ended up having a win-win strategy, I wonder how the casino owners will be living as large as they do.

Even if by accident you get so lucky, which is the only way you can hit it big, then you might even become a suspect if you keep winning consistently. Every aspect of gambling is luck based and anyone who thinks they can scoop the house edge off their funds will pretty much end up a joker at the end.

Wendigo

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It's pure shit for everyone rich and poor alike. The only difference is the amount of money lost at the end. Let's take for example a basebet of $10 and a bankroll of $10000. I think this is a standard bankroll size for average bettors. A 9-bet losing streak using Martingale strategy will eat more than half of that bankroll - the final balance will be $4890 and you can't even bet 10th time cause the losses would be $5120...
I have seen 20+ bet losing streaks which do happen often mind you. Losing $10000 to earn $10 is it worth it?

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Quote from: btctalk4life on August 29, 2018, 12:51:04 PM

Quote from: btc-facebook on August 29, 2018, 12:42:57 PM

Martiangle is great way to earn quick profit.
Yes, QUICK PROFIT so if you want to gamble for long term better not use martiangle.

If you want to long term betting, I recommend high risk high reward method using 0.01% winning chance rather than 90% winning chance !

Totally agree with this, martingale is works but only for short run and quick profit. It's highly not recommended to use martingale for long run, so just this strategy for a small run, then stop.

Pure shit for people who don't have that much funds to use martingale efficiently. If you have a lot of money, then it cam be pretty profitable. Though i agree that it isn't for an extemded time.

LoyceV

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Quote from: panjul07 on August 29, 2018, 01:13:45 PM

Long term betting with 0.01% winning chance is good? How if you never hit it till you have nothing left on your pocket? Hunting for big payout should be for fun only, as you may not hit ever.

The good thing about betting at very low odds is the very low house edge. You may win or you may lose, but on average you lose much more to the house edge if you play 98% odds.
I've seen someone win for months betting at 10% chance, starting with 10 Satoshi, and inreasing 12% on loss. He won about 60 Bitcoin in those months, and when it failed, he went down to minus 60. This strategy requires a large bankroll.

I made a spreadsheet for this strategy a few years ago. The amazing thing is how large the chance of winning is: If you place 100 rounds at 10% win chance, there's a 99.99734% chance you win one of them!
And that's also the tricky part: don't get fooled by those odds, it's very likely you win a round long before you hit 100 rounds, so your profit isn't as big. And if you play enough rounds, the chance to lose one round quickly goes up.

panjul07

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Quote from: btc-facebook on August 29, 2018, 12:42:57 PM

Martiangle is great way to earn quick profit.
Yes, QUICK PROFIT so if you want to gamble for long term better not use martiangle.

If you want to long term betting, I recommend high risk high reward method using 0.01% winning chance rather than 90% winning chance !

Quick profit as well as quick lose, martingale can make you lose all your money in few minutes only if you are in a bad luck. Martingale gives the same result no matter you use it for short or long term. The result still depend on your own luck.
Long term betting with 0.01% winning chance is good? How if you never hit it till you have nothing left on your pocket? Hunting for big payout should be for fun only, as you may not hit ever.

btctalk4life

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Quote from: btc-facebook on August 29, 2018, 12:42:57 PM

Martiangle is great way to earn quick profit.
Yes, QUICK PROFIT so if you want to gamble for long term better not use martiangle.

If you want to long term betting, I recommend high risk high reward method using 0.01% winning chance rather than 90% winning chance !

Totally agree with this, martingale is works but only for short run and quick profit. It's highly not recommended to use martingale for long run, so just this strategy for a small run, then stop.

btc-facebook

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Martiangle is great way to earn quick profit.
Yes, QUICK PROFIT so if you want to gamble for long term better not use martiangle.

If you want to long term betting, I recommend high risk high reward method using 0.01% winning chance rather than 90% winning chance !

Betwrong

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Quote from: LoyceV on August 28, 2018, 08:41:25 AM

Gamblers want (and need!) to have the illusion they can influence the outcome of the game. And it's part of the fun (or addiction) of playing.

Mathematically, the best thing to do is lower the house edge. That means don't wager the same money more than once. Martingale leads to a large house edge, meaning on average you win more.
The best way to get the lowest possible house edge is to place only one YOLO bet (all-in) at any multiplier you desire. After that, win or lose, don't ever come back!
But that's math, not fun, and most gamblers don't play for the best chances based on math.

The funny thing about Martingale is that new gamblers all think they've invented it Cheesy

I've been there too: "wait a minute, if I just double this, I can win back everything and turn a profit!"

This is so true. I've been there too, mate. I encountered gambling first time in my life on freebitco.in and although they have pretty big house edge on their HI/LO game I was so lucky at first that I was making around $2 per day on the site. The funny thing was that I didn't know at the time about existence of autobet so I was doing all my bets manually and was thinking that maybe for some people $2/day is nothing but there are countries where it is a good money, and I thought I invented a method with which poor people can improve their living, although they should work all day making bets.

Seriously, I lost everything I earned before only several days later. What a disappointment it was!

beerlover

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Quote from: btc_angela on August 27, 2018, 05:57:14 AM

Its because people are still thinking that they can really take and win a lot of money through martingale. In the long run it won't work and the risk factor is multiplied. So I agree, I don't understand some people's infatuation about this system. I have used this strategy short term and change strategy based on what I think is good that time. No fixed set of strategies, just saying.

The kind of thinking that would get their pocket drained eventually.

Martingale sucks and there is no strategy that can ever work effectively for gambling without you exposing yourself to a huge risk eventually since the chances of losing more to gaining so little will always keep increasing.

This is one reason why I still find it amusing why some people think they could end up gambling for a huge profit in the long run as long as they are consistent with a strategy which is why I can see why some people will remain poor since they can never use their head.

kurian

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On prediction games, Martingale is not the only failed strategy. Every other strategy would turn into pure shit if we use it for long term. When we use martingale, it works for some time and we keep on playing then, busting all our balance at the end. It is us who make martingale a 'pure shit'. We understand the outcomes of using same strategy for long and we keep on doing it.

eddierade

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You are correct. In the long run it cannot mathematically work.

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Juggy777

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on August 27, 2018, 04:31:14 AM

We keep getting threads about how martingale or martingale-like strategies work, and no matter how many times I (and others) explain it; we still get people saying that it works.

For example:

Quote from: ocid on August 19, 2018, 05:29:13 PM

yes, I think the martingale strategy is more suitable for playing dice because by doing this strategy we can manage the betting money we have well even though this strategy is quite risky but this strategy has been widely used by gamblers

Or

Quote from: pixie85 on August 19, 2018, 05:33:14 PM

... Martingale works in your normal life, but it doesn't work in online gambling where wins are calculated by a computer that does it for all players at once every second.
If you throw a coin and martingale the strategy will seem to work. Try doing it in online gambling like dice and you'll go broke.

With this post, I want to point out and emphasize why it is a pointless strategy: using martingale, you constantly increase your risk to earn proportionally less.

Let’s say that you bet $1 for heads, you toss a coin and lose. For the second bet, you are risking double ($2) to have a net profit of $1. That is the key point and if someone doesn’t understand it I will explain it in more detail. If you lose, in your third bet you are going to risk $4 to have a net profit of $1, and so on. This calculations are made thinking of you playing to toss coins with a fried but if you play in a casino, you have to take into account that the potential profit for one bet is less than 1$.

There is no point in betting for increased risk and decreased potential net profit.

I am sure that we will keep getting shitthreads about how martingale works but I hope some of you understand it and never use that shitstrategy.

This is a very nice detailed post and I'm sure many will now understand the perils of using this dumb strategy. I remember my early gambling strategy and all kept suggesting me Martingale saying they made loads of money, but once I saw it I knew this was a loss making strategy. I'll agree with you there're many people who have posted merits about Martingale, and will keep on posting about it, I hope all read this and understand it perils.

btcdevil

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Quote from: emberbekas on August 28, 2018, 02:08:08 PM

Quote from: milewilda on August 28, 2018, 01:09:46 PM

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on August 27, 2018, 04:31:14 AM

With this post, I want to point out and emphasize why it is a pointless strategy: using martingale, you constantly increase your risk to earn proportionally less.

You cant stopped those person who do keep on telling or saying that martingale works its either someone do told them about martingale or do able to discover by himself.They dont realize it on early times since they are just starting up to prove out something specially when they are lucky.They do make profits out of that strategy but sooner or later when martingale bust out for sure they would curse that strategy since we know martingale can wipe out your entire balance on an autobet almost instant.

It is not just martingale that will fail if we keep using it for a long time. Any strategies that exist on gambling will face the same problem as well. Luck won't happen all the time. It will leave us at anytime.

Perfectly said, any strategies wont work for long time, Even beginner luck is also matters. When you join a new site and you used martingale you will win for some bets but after that you will start loosing and in the end you will empty your investment. But this not only happens in martingale but even in any strategy bets. When you are gambling in casinos, dice or even poker also, Same strategy wont give you profit always as opposite will come to know about your strategy and they will play according to it. Same in casino and dice also when you play with same strategy the site will start to know your strategy and you will see that after some bets all your bets are loosing as now the site is knowing your bets that is why.

Just play for some bets and when you win just leave for the day and come fresh next day. That way you can win for some time but it is better to leave it when you are in profit and go for sports betting or else better leave the gambling and better do some job and be happy in life with what you have.

emberbekas

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Quote from: milewilda on August 28, 2018, 01:09:46 PM

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on August 27, 2018, 04:31:14 AM

With this post, I want to point out and emphasize why it is a pointless strategy: using martingale, you constantly increase your risk to earn proportionally less.

You cant stopped those person who do keep on telling or saying that martingale works its either someone do told them about martingale or do able to discover by himself.They dont realize it on early times since they are just starting up to prove out something specially when they are lucky.They do make profits out of that strategy but sooner or later when martingale bust out for sure they would curse that strategy since we know martingale can wipe out your entire balance on an autobet almost instant.

It is not just martingale that will fail if we keep using it for a long time. Any strategies that exist on gambling will face the same problem as well. Luck won't happen all the time. It will leave us at anytime.

milewilda

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on August 27, 2018, 04:31:14 AM

With this post, I want to point out and emphasize why it is a pointless strategy: using martingale, you constantly increase your risk to earn proportionally less.

You cant stopped those person who do keep on telling or saying that martingale works its either someone do told them about martingale or do able to discover by himself.They dont realize it on early times since they are just starting up to prove out something specially when they are lucky.They do make profits out of that strategy but sooner or later when martingale bust out for sure they would curse that strategy since we know martingale can wipe out your entire balance on an autobet almost instant.

Topic: Why martingale is PURE SHIT. - page 3. (Read 2141 times)