With all the upheaval the past few days, I've been surprised at the stability of BTC on the markets. And even more impressive was the resilience of the market when someone(s) just unloaded 13K BTC and the price dropped less than $1. You'd expect a bigger drop than that.
Lets see how things settle out over the next few hours
Topic: Why price is between 16 and 17 dollars per BTC. (Read 2215 times)
I had a play with MTGOX the other day. Managed to sell 9BTC for $17 each. Didnt relise how much there commision is so only ended up getting $16.8 for the each which pee'ed me off a bit so I made a buy order for 9BTC for 16.4 each which acutrally bought them all back so iv got all my coins back and 3 dollars in my account. Going to just hold on to my BTC now untill the mining difficultly goes right up at which point the price should go up too.
Just make sure you don't fall into the trap of correlation and causality. Price and difficulty tend to follow each other (within certain boundaries) but difficulty does not necessarily imply price. More likely it's the other way 'round - the more you can make per BTC by mining, the fewer BTC you have to make for it to be profitable. So far prices have only gone up over any reasonable span of time and difficulty has followed suit. At some point it will occur that price no longer justifies difficulty and rather than price moving up to accommodate as you seem to predict, people will stop mining and difficulty will move down.
Price increases because of the market, difficulty increases to follow price, so long as mining remains profitable. I made the mistake of confusing the two at the beginning myself, it's far too easy a mistake to make.
Yes, quite right. As I am holding on to a lot of BTC, I am hoping that price increases but it's a gamble. It could go either way.
Maybe a neural net can make some sense of the relationships. I'm considering programming one up. All the data is there...
I had a play with MTGOX the other day. Managed to sell 9BTC for $17 each. Didnt relise how much there commision is so only ended up getting $16.8 for the each which pee'ed me off a bit so I made a buy order for 9BTC for 16.4 each which acutrally bought them all back so iv got all my coins back and 3 dollars in my account. Going to just hold on to my BTC now untill the mining difficultly goes right up at which point the price should go up too.
Just make sure you don't fall into the trap of correlation and causality. Price and difficulty tend to follow each other (within certain boundaries) but difficulty does not necessarily imply price. More likely it's the other way 'round - the more you can make per BTC by mining, the fewer BTC you have to make for it to be profitable. So far prices have only gone up over any reasonable span of time and difficulty has followed suit. At some point it will occur that price no longer justifies difficulty and rather than price moving up to accommodate as you seem to predict, people will stop mining and difficulty will move down.
Price increases because of the market, difficulty increases to follow price, so long as mining remains profitable. I made the mistake of confusing the two at the beginning myself, it's far too easy a mistake to make.
Yes, quite right. As I am holding on to a lot of BTC, I am hoping that price increases but it's a gamble. It could go either way.
Of course, realistically the activity of miners does have *some* effect on price, so it's more likely a "tangled hierarchy" than a direct causal relationship... Still, the effect is much stronger in one direction than the other 
I had a play with MTGOX the other day. Managed to sell 9BTC for $17 each. Didnt relise how much there commision is so only ended up getting $16.8 for the each which pee'ed me off a bit so I made a buy order for 9BTC for 16.4 each which acutrally bought them all back so iv got all my coins back and 3 dollars in my account. Going to just hold on to my BTC now untill the mining difficultly goes right up at which point the price should go up too.
Yes, commissions need to be factored in. I made that mistake years ago on the real exchanges and lost quite a bit. Just forgot to take it into account. Mining difficulty is already priced in so you may be waiting longer than you think.
Yeah I'm aware that it might take awhile, No where supports transferring BTC to my currency anyway unless im willing to pay $45 for a international transfer. So im just hoping BTC will take off and become supported in more places at which point it will probably sky rocket like it did not long ago.
I had a play with MTGOX the other day. Managed to sell 9BTC for $17 each. Didnt relise how much there commision is so only ended up getting $16.8 for the each which pee'ed me off a bit so I made a buy order for 9BTC for 16.4 each which acutrally bought them all back so iv got all my coins back and 3 dollars in my account. Going to just hold on to my BTC now untill the mining difficultly goes right up at which point the price should go up too.
Just make sure you don't fall into the trap of correlation and causality. Price and difficulty tend to follow each other (within certain boundaries) but difficulty does not necessarily imply price. More likely it's the other way 'round - the more you can make per BTC by mining, the fewer BTC you have to make for it to be profitable. So far prices have only gone up over any reasonable span of time and difficulty has followed suit. At some point it will occur that price no longer justifies difficulty and rather than price moving up to accommodate as you seem to predict, people will stop mining and difficulty will move down.
Price increases because of the market, difficulty increases to follow price, so long as mining remains profitable. I made the mistake of confusing the two at the beginning myself, it's far too easy a mistake to make.
Had an auto buy at 16.6... Lucky Im just playing at trading with under 10 coins or I'd be gutted (ofc would be watching if I was doing it for real 
)
) Whats up now?
I had a play with MTGOX the other day. Managed to sell 9BTC for $17 each. Didnt relise how much there commision is so only ended up getting $16.8 for the each which pee'ed me off a bit so I made a buy order for 9BTC for 16.4 each which acutrally bought them all back so iv got all my coins back and 3 dollars in my account. Going to just hold on to my BTC now untill the mining difficultly goes right up at which point the price should go up too.
Yes, commissions need to be factored in. I made that mistake years ago on the real exchanges and lost quite a bit. Just forgot to take it into account. Mining difficulty is already priced in so you may be waiting longer than you think.
Ok, here comes the rebound.
I had a play with MTGOX the other day. Managed to sell 9BTC for $17 each. Didnt relise how much there commision is so only ended up getting $16.8 for the each which pee'ed me off a bit so I made a buy order for 9BTC for 16.4 each which acutrally bought them all back so iv got all my coins back and 3 dollars in my account. Going to just hold on to my BTC now untill the mining difficultly goes right up at which point the price should go up too.
Typical, I buy my first coins and the price tanks... next time I go to buy I'll let you know first 
It'll recover. Don't panic sell.
Typical, I buy my first coins and the price tanks... next time I go to buy I'll let you know first
Buying again. This downward shift is temporary.
Ok, I expect this to rebound very very soon. Could be wrong though so make your own minds up.
Just managed to get a few at 16.35..... Interesting.. Might go for a poop if this goes any lower. lol
I think that all holds true in a "stable" market, but how does the difficulty in generating the coins affect the price? I'm not sure you can apply conventional weighting and stats to a currency that is still "growing" for want of a better word.
I'm sure that price and difficulty are related but as you say, this is not a conventional currency. Anything can happen....
Huge trades going through right now. Might be the best time to buy. Depends how long this goes on and the knock on effects. I'm buying now at 16.45. Let's see what happens.......
I think that all holds true in a "stable" market, but how does the difficulty in generating the coins affect the price? I'm not sure you can apply conventional weighting and stats to a currency that is still "growing" for want of a better word.
I just hope the freaking price goes up. I have them at 16.4 bux but my god, the chances of it getting up to 40 to 50 to make actual money seems less and less liklely.
You and me both. 16.4 looks good to me. Right now we are in a dip and i believe very close to the bottom (with the current volatility). Just looking at the data now. It's all a risk, but fun never the less.
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