Topic: Why price is between 16 and 17 dollars per BTC. - page 2. (Read 2215 times)
I just hope the freaking price goes up. I have them at 16.4 bux but my god, the chances of it getting up to 40 to 50 to make actual money seems less and less liklely.
The bid and asks that are not near the current price may be very old, and furthermore, those that placed those bids and asks are quite likely to change their mind if the price moves significantly one way or another due to reassessing the market.
With no regulations exchange operators' friends could really be having a field day.
Just bought a bunch.
I'm fairly sure this is completely wrong.
The "price" is where asks meet the bids. So what matters are the high bids and the low asks. The quantity you're calculating is instead affected mostly by the low bids and high asks. If I place a bid of 100000 BTC at $0.01, it will have absolutely no affect on the trading price but will significantly drop your calculated price.
The "price" is where asks meet the bids. So what matters are the high bids and the low asks. The quantity you're calculating is instead affected mostly by the low bids and high asks. If I place a bid of 100000 BTC at $0.01, it will have absolutely no affect on the trading price but will significantly drop your calculated price.
I'm talking about true value rather than actual value. The further out the bid and ask prices are (ie, the spread) the less impact they have on the price however this is way to complicated to go into here. If you place a 100000 BTC at $0.01 it will have very little impact in reality due to that additional distance factor but I was just stating the principle. Weighting would also need to factor in the calculation and I will work on that at a later date. I plan to automate the stats.
Paul.
The other point I wanted to make is that the closer you are to the mid point the more likely your order will be fulfilled and therefore has a higher impact on price.
I'm fairly sure this is completely wrong.
The "price" is where asks meet the bids. So what matters are the high bids and the low asks. The quantity you're calculating is instead affected mostly by the low bids and high asks. If I place a bid of 100000 BTC at $0.01, it will have absolutely no affect on the trading price but will significantly drop your calculated price.
The "price" is where asks meet the bids. So what matters are the high bids and the low asks. The quantity you're calculating is instead affected mostly by the low bids and high asks. If I place a bid of 100000 BTC at $0.01, it will have absolutely no affect on the trading price but will significantly drop your calculated price.
I'm talking about true value rather than actual value. The further out the bid and ask prices are (ie, the spread) the less impact they have on the price however this is way to complicated to go into here. If you place a 100000 BTC at $0.01 it will have very little impact in reality due to that additional distance factor but I was just stating the principle. Weighting would also need to factor in the calculation and I will work on that at a later date. I plan to automate the stats.
Paul.
True, and there's quite a few good reasons for doing that (including the amount of data they would have to return to the page, however it does state it's rounded also)
I'm fairly sure this is completely wrong.
The "price" is where asks meet the bids. So what matters are the high bids and the low asks. The quantity you're calculating is instead affected mostly by the low bids and high asks. If I place a bid of 100000 BTC at $0.01, it will have absolutely no affect on the trading price but will significantly drop your calculated price.
The "price" is where asks meet the bids. So what matters are the high bids and the low asks. The quantity you're calculating is instead affected mostly by the low bids and high asks. If I place a bid of 100000 BTC at $0.01, it will have absolutely no affect on the trading price but will significantly drop your calculated price.
I'm talking about true value rather than actual value. The further out the bid and ask prices are (ie, the spread) the less impact they have on the price however this is way to complicated to go into here. If you place a 100000 BTC at $0.01 it will have very little impact in reality due to that additional distance factor but I was just stating the principle. Weighting would also need to factor in the calculation and I will work on that at a later date. I plan to automate the stats.
Paul.
Just taking the middle point of the two ends comes to 18.875. Now if we take the volumes into account (ie, for each ask and bid, calculate price * amount and then take the averages) we get the following:
This is because Mt. Gox only publishes a fixed range of the order book based on the current price. 
I'm fairly sure this is completely wrong.
The "price" is where asks meet the bids. So what matters are the high bids and the low asks. The quantity you're calculating is instead affected mostly by the low bids and high asks. If I place a bid of $0.01 on 100000 BTC, it will have absolutely no affect on the trading price but will significantly drop your calculated price.
The "price" is where asks meet the bids. So what matters are the high bids and the low asks. The quantity you're calculating is instead affected mostly by the low bids and high asks. If I place a bid of $0.01 on 100000 BTC, it will have absolutely no affect on the trading price but will significantly drop your calculated price.
Seeing as I can't yet post in the general threads but really wanted to comment / help / reply to someone on this subject, I'm posting it here:
Someone on another thread asked the question, why is the price at $17. Well here goes:
It's all about supply and demand (or buy and ask). Evaluating the price a bitcoin should be based on the current buy / ask market conditions goes like this:
Multiply all the buy amounts with the buy prices and find the average.
Multiply all the ask amounts with the ask prices and find the average.
Take the average of the two averages above and you have the middle price. Ie, the balance point where the prices will fluctuate around. With each and every trade, this balance point shifts, however in reality the actual price lags these changes and so sometimes you can exploit this. Let me show you how, based on mtgox data.
At the moment, the price is 16.77701
The data from mtgox is as follows:
Bid 12.6 8.83
Bid 12.65 6
Bid 12.7 27.01
Bid 12.75 37
Bid 12.85 156.25
Bid 12.9 7
Bid 12.95 3
Bid 13 1734.83
Bid 13.05 72.07
Bid 13.1 340.56
Bid 13.15 65
Bid 13.2 145.56
Bid 13.25 67.58
Bid 13.3 142.36
Bid 13.35 156.66
Bid 13.4 154.89
Bid 13.45 22
Bid 13.5 379.72
Bid 13.55 28.53
Bid 13.6 53.98
Bid 13.65 75
Bid 13.7 14.06
Bid 13.75 22.13
Bid 13.8 95.93
Bid 13.85 60
Bid 13.9 12
Bid 13.95 0.45
Bid 14 3716.19
Bid 14.05 571.64
Bid 14.1 402.96
Bid 14.15 208.84
Bid 14.2 623.39
Bid 14.25 108.89
Bid 14.3 416.75
Bid 14.35 0.38
Bid 14.4 84.82
Bid 14.45 53.68
Bid 14.5 1201.86
Bid 14.55 169.92
Bid 14.6 89.99
Bid 14.65 3.98
Bid 14.7 58.61
Bid 14.75 29.31
Bid 14.8 255.05
Bid 14.85 36
Bid 14.9 32.73
Bid 14.95 33.31
Bid 15 4197.49
Bid 15.05 530.72
Bid 15.1 3512.55
Bid 15.15 583.4
Bid 15.2 238.61
Bid 15.25 998.02
Bid 15.3 385.55
Bid 15.35 25.16
Bid 15.4 200.45
Bid 15.45 7
Bid 15.5 1567.15
Bid 15.55 1338.62
Bid 15.6 1722.97
Bid 15.65 1762.7
Bid 15.7 136.28
Bid 15.75 127.2
Bid 15.8 460
Bid 15.85 111.9
Bid 15.9 41.05
Bid 15.95 8.05
Bid 16 2158.52
Bid 16.05 174.05
Bid 16.1 514.07
Bid 16.15 377.87
Bid 16.2 294.97
Bid 16.25 85.81
Bid 16.3 454.14
Bid 16.35 1625.29
Bid 16.4 84.9
Bid 16.45 3017.49
Bid 16.5 3455.63
Bid 16.55 365.88
Bid 16.6 4946.73
Bid 16.65 2900.99
Bid 16.7 799.27
Bid 16.75 1552.03
Ask 16.8 1085.64
Ask 16.85 319.41
Ask 16.9 567.99
Ask 16.95 697
Ask 17 1636.62
Ask 17.05 252.1
Ask 17.1 471.11
Ask 17.15 384.21
Ask 17.2 596.76
Ask 17.25 196.27
Ask 17.3 212.28
Ask 17.35 435.3
Ask 17.4 244.38
Ask 17.45 289.37
Ask 17.5 1679.15
Ask 17.55 132.52
Ask 17.6 2248.47
Ask 17.65 32.82
Ask 17.7 252.12
Ask 17.75 501.26
Ask 17.8 646.17
Ask 17.85 13.84
Ask 17.9 741.75
Ask 17.95 169.21
Ask 18 2152.4
Ask 18.05 13.2
Ask 18.1 107.24
Ask 18.15 12.71
Ask 18.2 38.97
Ask 18.25 2
Ask 18.3 53.54
Ask 18.35 78.03
Ask 18.4 150.83
Ask 18.45 36.4
Ask 18.5 1072.15
Ask 18.55 516.53
Ask 18.6 87.16
Ask 18.65 37.1
Ask 18.7 23.5
Ask 18.75 21.72
Ask 18.8 36.52
Ask 18.85 43.34
Ask 18.9 314.11
Ask 18.95 49.38
Ask 19 1353.58
Ask 19.05 1.1
Ask 19.1 198.97
Ask 19.2 41.62
Ask 19.25 44.85
Ask 19.3 100.68
Ask 19.35 2.31
Ask 19.4 29.63
Ask 19.45 30.08
Ask 19.5 531.07
Ask 19.55 10.8
Ask 19.6 217.79
Ask 19.7 93.9
Ask 19.75 1076.15
Ask 19.8 105.54
Ask 19.85 42.12
Ask 19.9 399.39
Ask 19.95 333.8
Ask 20 3050.66
Ask 20.05 10
Ask 20.1 55
Ask 20.15 4
Ask 20.2 10.2
Ask 20.25 10.98
Ask 20.3 2.2
Ask 20.4 4.49
Ask 20.45 189.5
Ask 20.5 213.61
Ask 20.7 12.22
Ask 20.75 200
Ask 20.8 3
Ask 20.85 3.2
Ask 20.9 100.37
Ask 20.95 7.14
Ask 21 1040.39
Ask 21.05 4.66
Ask 21.1 12.15
Ask 21.25 44.41
Ask 21.3 234
Ask 21.35 32
Ask 21.4 21.2
Ask 21.45 30.28
Ask 21.5 11.25
Ask 21.6 3.5
Ask 21.7 1
Ask 21.75 15
Ask 21.8 312.65
Ask 21.85 2
Ask 21.9 15.84
Ask 21.95 25.95
Ask 22 1450.8
Ask 22.1 1
Ask 22.2 10.1
Ask 22.25 0.27
Ask 22.35 4
Ask 22.4 12.5
Ask 22.45 48
Ask 22.5 78.87
Ask 22.6 1000
Ask 22.65 10
Ask 22.7 0.25
Ask 22.8 10
Ask 22.9 15.51
Ask 22.95 107.82
Ask 23 243.18
Ask 23.1 13.76
Ask 23.15 13.16
Ask 23.2 8.6
Ask 23.4 2.5
Ask 23.45 3
Ask 23.5 141.18
Ask 23.55 255
Ask 23.7 17.33
Ask 23.8 39.87
Ask 23.9 423.73
Ask 23.95 183.7
Ask 24 1252.04
Ask 24.1 2
Ask 24.2 1.07
Ask 24.25 1.01
Ask 24.3 330
Ask 24.4 62.29
Ask 24.45 1
Ask 24.5 89.6
Ask 24.55 10.11
Ask 24.7 31
Ask 24.75 2.04
Ask 24.8 32.62
Ask 24.85 24.79
Ask 24.9 109.67
Ask 24.95 28.51
Ask 25 1847.12
Ask 25.1 5.02
Ask 25.15 50
From this you can see that someone wants to pay as little as 12.6 and at the other end someone is asking for 25.15, however we cannot simply take a middle point between these two extremes as we have not taken into account the amounts of coins involved at each price point. Just taking the middle point of the two ends comes to 18.875. Now if we take the volumes into account (ie, for each ask and bid, calculate price * amount and then take the averages) we get the following:
Total price for bid = 816552
Total coins for bid = 52749.21
Average price of bid coin = 15.47989
Now for ask:
Total price for ask = 722584.9
Total coins for ask = 36922.83
Average price for ask coin = 19.57014
The mid point is the average of both prices of coins (ie. 17.52501)
So at the current price of 16.777, they are undervalued and should at least reach 17.525 at some point in the spread. Also notice that there are more requests for coins than are being sold so demand is slightly higher (but not by much). This should put a little pressure on the coins to rise in value over time. So at 16.777, you should buy as you are getting some value (albeit not much). So how do we increase the price? If all sellers would raise their asking price the value of the coins should in theory rise so long as people are willing to buy at the higher price. If not, then eventually sellers would lower their price to shift the coins they hold.
Paul
Someone on another thread asked the question, why is the price at $17. Well here goes:
It's all about supply and demand (or buy and ask). Evaluating the price a bitcoin should be based on the current buy / ask market conditions goes like this:
Multiply all the buy amounts with the buy prices and find the average.
Multiply all the ask amounts with the ask prices and find the average.
Take the average of the two averages above and you have the middle price. Ie, the balance point where the prices will fluctuate around. With each and every trade, this balance point shifts, however in reality the actual price lags these changes and so sometimes you can exploit this. Let me show you how, based on mtgox data.
At the moment, the price is 16.77701
The data from mtgox is as follows:
Bid 12.6 8.83
Bid 12.65 6
Bid 12.7 27.01
Bid 12.75 37
Bid 12.85 156.25
Bid 12.9 7
Bid 12.95 3
Bid 13 1734.83
Bid 13.05 72.07
Bid 13.1 340.56
Bid 13.15 65
Bid 13.2 145.56
Bid 13.25 67.58
Bid 13.3 142.36
Bid 13.35 156.66
Bid 13.4 154.89
Bid 13.45 22
Bid 13.5 379.72
Bid 13.55 28.53
Bid 13.6 53.98
Bid 13.65 75
Bid 13.7 14.06
Bid 13.75 22.13
Bid 13.8 95.93
Bid 13.85 60
Bid 13.9 12
Bid 13.95 0.45
Bid 14 3716.19
Bid 14.05 571.64
Bid 14.1 402.96
Bid 14.15 208.84
Bid 14.2 623.39
Bid 14.25 108.89
Bid 14.3 416.75
Bid 14.35 0.38
Bid 14.4 84.82
Bid 14.45 53.68
Bid 14.5 1201.86
Bid 14.55 169.92
Bid 14.6 89.99
Bid 14.65 3.98
Bid 14.7 58.61
Bid 14.75 29.31
Bid 14.8 255.05
Bid 14.85 36
Bid 14.9 32.73
Bid 14.95 33.31
Bid 15 4197.49
Bid 15.05 530.72
Bid 15.1 3512.55
Bid 15.15 583.4
Bid 15.2 238.61
Bid 15.25 998.02
Bid 15.3 385.55
Bid 15.35 25.16
Bid 15.4 200.45
Bid 15.45 7
Bid 15.5 1567.15
Bid 15.55 1338.62
Bid 15.6 1722.97
Bid 15.65 1762.7
Bid 15.7 136.28
Bid 15.75 127.2
Bid 15.8 460
Bid 15.85 111.9
Bid 15.9 41.05
Bid 15.95 8.05
Bid 16 2158.52
Bid 16.05 174.05
Bid 16.1 514.07
Bid 16.15 377.87
Bid 16.2 294.97
Bid 16.25 85.81
Bid 16.3 454.14
Bid 16.35 1625.29
Bid 16.4 84.9
Bid 16.45 3017.49
Bid 16.5 3455.63
Bid 16.55 365.88
Bid 16.6 4946.73
Bid 16.65 2900.99
Bid 16.7 799.27
Bid 16.75 1552.03
Ask 16.8 1085.64
Ask 16.85 319.41
Ask 16.9 567.99
Ask 16.95 697
Ask 17 1636.62
Ask 17.05 252.1
Ask 17.1 471.11
Ask 17.15 384.21
Ask 17.2 596.76
Ask 17.25 196.27
Ask 17.3 212.28
Ask 17.35 435.3
Ask 17.4 244.38
Ask 17.45 289.37
Ask 17.5 1679.15
Ask 17.55 132.52
Ask 17.6 2248.47
Ask 17.65 32.82
Ask 17.7 252.12
Ask 17.75 501.26
Ask 17.8 646.17
Ask 17.85 13.84
Ask 17.9 741.75
Ask 17.95 169.21
Ask 18 2152.4
Ask 18.05 13.2
Ask 18.1 107.24
Ask 18.15 12.71
Ask 18.2 38.97
Ask 18.25 2
Ask 18.3 53.54
Ask 18.35 78.03
Ask 18.4 150.83
Ask 18.45 36.4
Ask 18.5 1072.15
Ask 18.55 516.53
Ask 18.6 87.16
Ask 18.65 37.1
Ask 18.7 23.5
Ask 18.75 21.72
Ask 18.8 36.52
Ask 18.85 43.34
Ask 18.9 314.11
Ask 18.95 49.38
Ask 19 1353.58
Ask 19.05 1.1
Ask 19.1 198.97
Ask 19.2 41.62
Ask 19.25 44.85
Ask 19.3 100.68
Ask 19.35 2.31
Ask 19.4 29.63
Ask 19.45 30.08
Ask 19.5 531.07
Ask 19.55 10.8
Ask 19.6 217.79
Ask 19.7 93.9
Ask 19.75 1076.15
Ask 19.8 105.54
Ask 19.85 42.12
Ask 19.9 399.39
Ask 19.95 333.8
Ask 20 3050.66
Ask 20.05 10
Ask 20.1 55
Ask 20.15 4
Ask 20.2 10.2
Ask 20.25 10.98
Ask 20.3 2.2
Ask 20.4 4.49
Ask 20.45 189.5
Ask 20.5 213.61
Ask 20.7 12.22
Ask 20.75 200
Ask 20.8 3
Ask 20.85 3.2
Ask 20.9 100.37
Ask 20.95 7.14
Ask 21 1040.39
Ask 21.05 4.66
Ask 21.1 12.15
Ask 21.25 44.41
Ask 21.3 234
Ask 21.35 32
Ask 21.4 21.2
Ask 21.45 30.28
Ask 21.5 11.25
Ask 21.6 3.5
Ask 21.7 1
Ask 21.75 15
Ask 21.8 312.65
Ask 21.85 2
Ask 21.9 15.84
Ask 21.95 25.95
Ask 22 1450.8
Ask 22.1 1
Ask 22.2 10.1
Ask 22.25 0.27
Ask 22.35 4
Ask 22.4 12.5
Ask 22.45 48
Ask 22.5 78.87
Ask 22.6 1000
Ask 22.65 10
Ask 22.7 0.25
Ask 22.8 10
Ask 22.9 15.51
Ask 22.95 107.82
Ask 23 243.18
Ask 23.1 13.76
Ask 23.15 13.16
Ask 23.2 8.6
Ask 23.4 2.5
Ask 23.45 3
Ask 23.5 141.18
Ask 23.55 255
Ask 23.7 17.33
Ask 23.8 39.87
Ask 23.9 423.73
Ask 23.95 183.7
Ask 24 1252.04
Ask 24.1 2
Ask 24.2 1.07
Ask 24.25 1.01
Ask 24.3 330
Ask 24.4 62.29
Ask 24.45 1
Ask 24.5 89.6
Ask 24.55 10.11
Ask 24.7 31
Ask 24.75 2.04
Ask 24.8 32.62
Ask 24.85 24.79
Ask 24.9 109.67
Ask 24.95 28.51
Ask 25 1847.12
Ask 25.1 5.02
Ask 25.15 50
From this you can see that someone wants to pay as little as 12.6 and at the other end someone is asking for 25.15, however we cannot simply take a middle point between these two extremes as we have not taken into account the amounts of coins involved at each price point. Just taking the middle point of the two ends comes to 18.875. Now if we take the volumes into account (ie, for each ask and bid, calculate price * amount and then take the averages) we get the following:
Total price for bid = 816552
Total coins for bid = 52749.21
Average price of bid coin = 15.47989
Now for ask:
Total price for ask = 722584.9
Total coins for ask = 36922.83
Average price for ask coin = 19.57014
The mid point is the average of both prices of coins (ie. 17.52501)
So at the current price of 16.777, they are undervalued and should at least reach 17.525 at some point in the spread. Also notice that there are more requests for coins than are being sold so demand is slightly higher (but not by much). This should put a little pressure on the coins to rise in value over time. So at 16.777, you should buy as you are getting some value (albeit not much). So how do we increase the price? If all sellers would raise their asking price the value of the coins should in theory rise so long as people are willing to buy at the higher price. If not, then eventually sellers would lower their price to shift the coins they hold.
Paul
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