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Topic: Why the martingale system sucks! (doubling down on losses) - page 5. (Read 3303 times)

legendary
Activity: 2534
Merit: 1338
The problem with personal experiences is that there is a lot of bias, if another member says that it has worked for them I believe them in the sense that I do not think they have suffered catastrophic losses yet, but the math is clear, martingale has been disproved mathematically over and over again as a technique that works as it does not change at all the probabilities of the game, taking this into account the only reasonable explanation for those that argue that it works is that they have simply not used the strategy long enough.

The problem with personal experiences is that people like to show their strengths and hide their weaknesses, which is why they will brag about winning and keep quiet about losing.
That is simply human nature, we like to display our strengths while hiding our weaknesses.

Correct, and we only need to take a look at social media to see this is the truth, most people are going to post things about their life but most of it is going to be positive as they want to project a positive image over their life, occasionally they crack down and let their real selves to show up but this is rare, the problem with this is that people begin to deceive themselves thinking that in fact there is nothing wrong with their lives and the same kind of logic applies here as well.

They only do that for the sake of views, a lot of people are interested in this strategy and they would not watch if this strategy is not working. Everything that we saw in social media, especially on youtube could be biased, remember that the main intention of the uploader is just to increase his views to make more money. Maybe we just need to experience it ourselves so we can tell based on our real experience, but I'm sure this would not work to anyone.
But this is my issue, it is not necessary to go through personal experiences in order to find out that martingale does not work, in fact you only need a spreadsheet software and a few formulas and you can see by yourself that martingale does not work, you could run a simulation for as long as you need and you will see that in every single scenario your money will run out and reach zero, but since many people do not understand the math they prefer to follow the personal experiences of others or their own generating disastrous results.
sr. member
Activity: 1274
Merit: 293
The belief in the system is that when you do it, you basically win back all your losses from previous matches so you are basically trying to gamble by just breaking even. That's what I don't get in this system, besides doubling down on losses, you only have one way in this system and that is as I have said, breakeven.
hero member
Activity: 3024
Merit: 745
Top Crypto Casino
As I've said for others, they're saying that it works for them but not for me and for you and for the others too. I agree that the casino in the long term will always be the winner.
That's why house edge has been set and even it's just 1%, that's already a huge thing to profit with by the casino.

Even if it's smaller than that if gamblers will keeps on playing using this system end results will still favor the house, not unless gamer knows how to work with both emotions and time,

You need to know if your own system will work in times that you are working with martingale,  chances of losing when you disregard setting up both your money and your spend time is high, leading you to miscalculates your chances and ended you up burning up your
bankroll.
Those who are using the strategy might be aware of it and they're going to stop if it no longer works for them. They know how to deal with it and if they keep on losing, they'll stop.
I'm one of those that have tried it with few times but stop quickly because I've already concluded that this strategy won't work for me even in short or long time. But for the others who keep on using it, they probably can control things under the heat.
legendary
Activity: 2996
Merit: 1054
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Everything that we saw in social media, especially on youtube could be biased, remember that the main intention of the uploader is just to increase his views to make more money.

Correct at some point.

There are even agreements between sites and streamers as it can introduce the site to a large audience - which is the purpose of the influencers. The audience wants that kind of video reference since they like to see first how's the experience of playing on the site before they will play.

And the fact that these influencers make a video for it, the audience will think of it as a good website.

Influencers always takes the benefits, either way they can make money. Some websites pays for advertisements and that's the intentions from the influencers, taking advantage of that opportunities sucking money out from the house. They create video to bring audience to the site and like what mirakal said some are bias and most of the time they've won a lot and showing the luxuries of taking decent profits.


You need to carefully assess each gambling sites, or even the strategy those influencers shared if you want to avoid busting all your bankroll. Strategy like martingale or enhance martingale are present when video was created, be wise or else, it cause you a lot losing money from following those influencers.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1083
Everything that we saw in social media, especially on youtube could be biased, remember that the main intention of the uploader is just to increase his views to make more money.

Correct at some point.

There are even agreements between sites and streamers as it can introduce the site to a large audience - which is the purpose of the influencers. The audience wants that kind of video reference since they like to see first how's the experience of playing on the site before they will play.

And the fact that these influencers make a video for it, the audience will think of it as a good website.
legendary
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1290
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
The problem with personal experiences is that there is a lot of bias, if another member says that it has worked for them I believe them in the sense that I do not think they have suffered catastrophic losses yet, but the math is clear, martingale has been disproved mathematically over and over again as a technique that works as it does not change at all the probabilities of the game, taking this into account the only reasonable explanation for those that argue that it works is that they have simply not used the strategy long enough.

The problem with personal experiences is that people like to show their strengths and hide their weaknesses, which is why they will brag about winning and keep quiet about losing.
That is simply human nature, we like to display our strengths while hiding our weaknesses.

Correct, and we only need to take a look at social media to see this is the truth, most people are going to post things about their life but most of it is going to be positive as they want to project a positive image over their life, occasionally they crack down and let their real selves to show up but this is rare, the problem with this is that people begin to deceive themselves thinking that in fact there is nothing wrong with their lives and the same kind of logic applies here as well.

They only do that for the sake of views, a lot of people are interested in this strategy and they would not watch if this strategy is not working. Everything that we saw in social media, especially on youtube could be biased, remember that the main intention of the uploader is just to increase his views to make more money. Maybe we just need to experience it ourselves so we can tell based on our real experience, but I'm sure this would not work to anyone.
legendary
Activity: 2534
Merit: 1338
The problem with personal experiences is that there is a lot of bias, if another member says that it has worked for them I believe them in the sense that I do not think they have suffered catastrophic losses yet, but the math is clear, martingale has been disproved mathematically over and over again as a technique that works as it does not change at all the probabilities of the game, taking this into account the only reasonable explanation for those that argue that it works is that they have simply not used the strategy long enough.

The problem with personal experiences is that people like to show their strengths and hide their weaknesses, which is why they will brag about winning and keep quiet about losing.
That is simply human nature, we like to display our strengths while hiding our weaknesses.

Correct, and we only need to take a look at social media to see this is the truth, most people are going to post things about their life but most of it is going to be positive as they want to project a positive image over their life, occasionally they crack down and let their real selves to show up but this is rare, the problem with this is that people begin to deceive themselves thinking that in fact there is nothing wrong with their lives and the same kind of logic applies here as well.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1775
Catalog Websites
The Martingale gaming system cannot guarantee the player a win. 

Yes, in many casinos the use of this system is limited.  Therefore, many believe that the martingale gambling system is very effective.  In fact, this is not the case.  The casino provides itself with insurance in advance against all troubles.  The casino has essentially an unlimited supply of money. 

The player plays with real money.  The casino only promises to pay out the winnings. 

This is the fundamental difference.
legendary
Activity: 2996
Merit: 1054
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

As I've said for others, they're saying that it works for them but not for me and for you and for the others too. I agree that the casino in the long term will always be the winner.
That's why house edge has been set and even it's just 1%, that's already a huge thing to profit with by the casino.

Even if it's smaller than that if gamblers will keeps on playing using this system end results will still favor the house, not unless gamer knows how to work with both emotions and time,

You need to know if your own system will work in times that you are working with martingale,  chances of losing when you disregard setting up both your money and your spend time is high, leading you to miscalculates your chances and ended you up burning up your
bankroll.
STT
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 1452
Quote
the easiest thing or strategy

Path of least resistance this is known as, its the average determiner for many things especially outcomes and probability analysis.  The only way really to beat the odds is to do the hard work or take the long road in method to achieve a result thats not expected ie. a win for the operator is the usual outcome to expect normally.

Martingale is popular for its simplicity to comprehend, pass on as an urban legend and also execution is quite simple.   If we have a quite effective method its not likely absolute in its logic but a series of wins and losses that gives a net result that is a possible profit.   Its very hard to beat a house advantage, the best chance is vs other players in some shape or form and just know the game better.  Obviously there is poker for a direct game or sports betting is a bit more indirect and probably a few other games, I recommend all of those choices vs another attempt to make this 'system' work.
hero member
Activity: 3024
Merit: 745
Top Crypto Casino
IMO the martingale strategy sacks because it's not for players on a budget and it never works and if the casino  has set a limit on total amount that can be wagered in a single round , this strategy isn't any good.
Some gamblers who used that strategy said that it works for them but it's a fact that the majority who tried it can say that it's not an ideal strategy for us.
But for some, it works for them, they're on the budget and it's true that you need a certain amount of bigger budget for committing this strategy.
So, you say that there is a guy that comes with 100 bitcoin, starts with the lowest amount and doubles on every loss. Finally, because of his high budget, he is able to take the wins and have a nice day at Ibiza during the whole summer. Cmon, if someone wins, that's because of luck! You can't beat mathematics with your budget, 1% house edge means that you have a disadvantage and in long term, the casino is guaranteed to profit!
As I've said for others, they're saying that it works for them but not for me and for you and for the others too. I agree that the casino in the long term will always be the winner.
That's why house edge has been set and even it's just 1%, that's already a huge thing to profit with by the casino.
legendary
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1166
I have seen crazy streaks in roulette of one color showing up more than 10 times in a row. It is insane, but from a statistical point of view absolutely possible. The OP explained very well how the mathematics work against you if you look at it from the opposite perspective. How many games do you have to apply the method such that your chance to lose is almost 100%, and there you have it. I admit when I was young and started playing a bit I also tried that out and I learned my lesson with cents, which was good for me. I started with a cent, and then two, and then four, and I was shocked how quickly that escalated to my disadvantage. I always thought the casinos were rigged and then did my research accordingly, and the result was exactly what OP explained. For those who don't want to trust in their belief, just trust in maths!

10 times in a row is not crazy streak lol  Wink This is a common sequence that you see almost every time you play and place a large number of bets. The real madness is when you play dice (<> 49.5%) and get 40 losing bets in a row. It happened to me, but I tested different strategies and made a huge number of bets, and to see such a sequence, perhaps several hundred thousand bets were made.

Yes yes I concur with you absolutely! I just wanted to demonstrate that for someone who has no experience or is reluctant to accept maths or too dumb to understand it, a streak of 10 in a row of something seems so out of reach for them that they are the ones going to lose exactly because the think the martingale system MUST BE bullet proof. Cheesy

I've never played dice a lot, but I feel you, trust me! Cheesy These nights at the poker table and so on. I'm surprised I have never smashed a keyboard. I must be a calm guy! Haha!
hero member
Activity: 2912
Merit: 541
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
I would like to know from gamblers what they do instead of doubling the bet on loss, since martingale is so horrible. If you don't raise your bet after a loss, you are never going to make any profit from gambling. That is my perception on this matter. For this reason people use martingale, because they want to have a chance to make profit at least on short run.

If there were better ways to gamble, would martingale be so popular?
And who said that you should profit from gambling? Every casino warns you to play for fun, not for profit. If you want to profit, then go work, do something.
Why is martingale popular? It's the simplest strategy that comes close to the humans minds. People think: When I lose, the chance of win next time increases, so let's double and get the loss back + some profit. Simple and easy, right?
It is hard to profit from gambling because all of that will depend on luck and the skills that we have. People are playing gambling using the easiest thing or strategy that is no need many things to prepare. Most people who gamble do not want to learn too many details. If you are reason to play gambling because you enjoy the game, you do not have to raise the bet just to chase the win, but you only click the roll button and let the number show.
hero member
Activity: 2926
Merit: 567

The problem with personal experiences is that there is a lot of bias, if another member says that it has worked for them I believe them in the sense that I do not think they have suffered catastrophic losses yet, but the math is clear, martingale has been disproved mathematically over and over again as a technique that works as it does not change at all the probabilities of the game, taking this into account the only reasonable explanation for those that argue that it works is that they have simply not used the strategy long enough.

Another reason why they are not yet experiencing this is, they have a big wager that can cover a long roll and they know when to stop, the worse thing is to get caught by the house edge, you could be lucky when you are starting out because the house edge id not caught you yet but when they do even if you can cover 20 rolls you will eventually lose.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1951
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
10 times in a row is not crazy streak lol  Wink This is a common sequence that you see almost every time you play and place a large number of bets. The real madness is when you play dice (<> 49.5%) and get 40 losing bets in a row. It happened to me, but I tested different strategies and made a huge number of bets, and to see such a sequence, perhaps several hundred thousand bets were made.
25 losses in a row at 49.5, I guess make it to the world record series! That was my worst result ever with martingale and I thank God I was using play money on crypto-games only to have som fun to test a variation in the strategy (when switching low/high, what to do after 5 reds in a row etc.)
Never underestimate the power of randomness, it will always and I mean, always, surprise you. Mostly for the bad, almost never for the good.

Not even close to record  Cheesy
In terms of mathematics, in order to get such a series, you should do on average 2^(25+1) - 2 = 67108862 bets.
I calculated the probability for my streak (40) and it turned out that in order to get it I had to make more than 2 trillion bets  Grin
hero member
Activity: 2352
Merit: 905
Metawin.com - Truly the best casino ever
IMO the martingale strategy sacks because it's not for players on a budget and it never works and if the casino  has set a limit on total amount that can be wagered in a single round , this strategy isn't any good.
Some gamblers who used that strategy said that it works for them but it's a fact that the majority who tried it can say that it's not an ideal strategy for us.
But for some, it works for them, they're on the budget and it's true that you need a certain amount of bigger budget for committing this strategy.
So, you say that there is a guy that comes with 100 bitcoin, starts with the lowest amount and doubles on every loss. Finally, because of his high budget, he is able to take the wins and have a nice day at Ibiza during the whole summer. Cmon, if someone wins, that's because of luck! You can't beat mathematics with your budget, 1% house edge means that you have a disadvantage and in long term, the casino is guaranteed to profit!

I would like to know from gamblers what they do instead of doubling the bet on loss, since martingale is so horrible. If you don't raise your bet after a loss, you are never going to make any profit from gambling. That is my perception on this matter. For this reason people use martingale, because they want to have a chance to make profit at least on short run.

If there were better ways to gamble, would martingale be so popular?
And who said that you should profit from gambling? Every casino warns you to play for fun, not for profit. If you want to profit, then go work, do something.
Why is martingale popular? It's the simplest strategy that comes close to the humans minds. People think: When I lose, the chance of win next time increases, so let's double and get the loss back + some profit. Simple and easy, right?
full member
Activity: 966
Merit: 102
I have seen crazy streaks in roulette of one color showing up more than 10 times in a row. It is insane, but from a statistical point of view absolutely possible. The OP explained very well how the mathematics work against you if you look at it from the opposite perspective. How many games do you have to apply the method such that your chance to lose is almost 100%, and there you have it. I admit when I was young and started playing a bit I also tried that out and I learned my lesson with cents, which was good for me. I started with a cent, and then two, and then four, and I was shocked how quickly that escalated to my disadvantage. I always thought the casinos were rigged and then did my research accordingly, and the result was exactly what OP explained. For those who don't want to trust in their belief, just trust in maths!

10 times in a row is not crazy streak lol  Wink This is a common sequence that you see almost every time you play and place a large number of bets. The real madness is when you play dice (<> 49.5%) and get 40 losing bets in a row. It happened to me, but I tested different strategies and made a huge number of bets, and to see such a sequence, perhaps several hundred thousand bets were made.
25 losses in a row at 49.5, I guess make it to the world record series! That was my worst result ever with martingale and I thank God I was using play money on crypto-games only to have som fun to test a variation in the strategy (when switching low/high, what to do after 5 reds in a row etc.)
Never underestimate the power of randomness, it will always and I mean, always, surprise you. Mostly for the bad, almost never for the good.

In theory it could work, however many people forget that a roulette table has no memory and so you could in fact take black or red, or even/odd, randomly every time. A ball can go wrong 10 times in a row, then you have to bet a lot in round 11 to win it back. That's really not logical at all. 25 losses in a row, it could be possible, that is about 25 losses losing a coin toss, yeah hard bad luck
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1481
I have seen crazy streaks in roulette of one color showing up more than 10 times in a row. It is insane, but from a statistical point of view absolutely possible. The OP explained very well how the mathematics work against you if you look at it from the opposite perspective. How many games do you have to apply the method such that your chance to lose is almost 100%, and there you have it. I admit when I was young and started playing a bit I also tried that out and I learned my lesson with cents, which was good for me. I started with a cent, and then two, and then four, and I was shocked how quickly that escalated to my disadvantage. I always thought the casinos were rigged and then did my research accordingly, and the result was exactly what OP explained. For those who don't want to trust in their belief, just trust in maths!

10 times in a row is not crazy streak lol  Wink This is a common sequence that you see almost every time you play and place a large number of bets. The real madness is when you play dice (<> 49.5%) and get 40 losing bets in a row. It happened to me, but I tested different strategies and made a huge number of bets, and to see such a sequence, perhaps several hundred thousand bets were made.
25 losses in a row at 49.5, I guess make it to the world record series! That was my worst result ever with martingale and I thank God I was using play money on crypto-games only to have som fun to test a variation in the strategy (when switching low/high, what to do after 5 reds in a row etc.)
Never underestimate the power of randomness, it will always and I mean, always, surprise you. Mostly for the bad, almost never for the good.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1951
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
I have seen crazy streaks in roulette of one color showing up more than 10 times in a row. It is insane, but from a statistical point of view absolutely possible. The OP explained very well how the mathematics work against you if you look at it from the opposite perspective. How many games do you have to apply the method such that your chance to lose is almost 100%, and there you have it. I admit when I was young and started playing a bit I also tried that out and I learned my lesson with cents, which was good for me. I started with a cent, and then two, and then four, and I was shocked how quickly that escalated to my disadvantage. I always thought the casinos were rigged and then did my research accordingly, and the result was exactly what OP explained. For those who don't want to trust in their belief, just trust in maths!

10 times in a row is not crazy streak lol  Wink This is a common sequence that you see almost every time you play and place a large number of bets. The real madness is when you play dice (<> 49.5%) and get 40 losing bets in a row. It happened to me, but I tested different strategies and made a huge number of bets, and to see such a sequence, perhaps several hundred thousand bets were made.
hero member
Activity: 3024
Merit: 745
Top Crypto Casino
It's popular because many are aware of the strategy but after trying it, everyone has their own story how it helped them and as well gave them a lot of losses.
That's not the only strategy to recover your losses. Like if you loss for the day, you can gamble again tomorrow and recover gradually or just forget about your past losses and focus on the new wins that shall come.
Does it mean a half-martingale strategy is the best method to gamble? So you still double your bet on loss, but don't go by the end of your bankroll, always preserving some money in your balance, being possible to come back to play again after some time to recover that initial loss or at least decrease the loss the maximum as possible, through sports betting, for an example.
It doesn't mean that whether it's full or half, it's the best method but in reality for some it is the best. But, for many of us it isn't the best. There's no such as best method because it's just our way how we're going to manage our bankrollls as we gamble.
If we're good at it then you may say that it's the best method and strategy.
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