Topic: Why was $13,800 unsustainable? - page 2. (Read 1321 times)

You do not understand what hodl is. It is holding coins and has nothing to do with the location of stored coins.

You also have no idea how mining works, and have simply posted this to change the subject from what I was saying earlier about how cash flow affects the price of bitcoin. You seem to have an agenda.

If you want to know cash flow and financial based information about bitcoin, please visit my site:

https://www.amsinger.org

Much love and continued profit growth!

Aaron

Having money on an exchange is higher risk than a cold wallet. So HODL has less risk.
MtGox, BTCe etc. Have shut down with a lot of losers.
If you call it inefficient and want to optimize profits that's greed (point 2). Better to HODL and make good profits.

Mining is the only anonymous way to get bitcoin and yes they initially mine at a profit and then at a loss.
It's an averaging strategy like buying the dip which is also buying during a downward market.
Also mining heats your house 😁

If you had the Golden goose then you wouldn't be sharing the info.
Most analysts with followers create distributed pump 'n dump using other people's money by "advice". Self fulfilling prophecy..
And they pay you which is a good benefit.

It is now 9 days from the posting of this thread, and the bitcoin price has faced continuous draining from the stated price. We are $2,500 down from the peak price.

The reason I was aware of this was because I am aware of the creation cost of bitcoin. I am aware of the amount of cash flow needed to support prices over time. I am aware that currently it is unlikely that bitcoin would of been able to get ~$24 million/day of new longterm investment.

It was very possible that the price could have climbed higher and higher from $13,800, but if it had, the decline would have been sharper and more aggressive.

If you want to know this type of cash flow and financial based information about bitcoin, please visit my site:

https://www.amsinger.org

Much love and continued profit growth!

Aaron

1. Holding is inefficient, intelligent people buy low risk and sell high risk.

2. If you trade on emotions, good luck. People believe whatever story they want when it comes to manipulation.

3. So you are arguing that every mining company is pulling a loss and choosing to avoid profit during profitable times? That is poor reasoning and lacking in analysis or understanding.

4. People who sold @12k-20k are still "being forgiven". I agree with you in this: chart line drawers are usually con men especially in bitcoin.

My clients will enjoy buying when you sell low and selling when you buy high. You have no way of knowing what is reasonably priced and what is garbage priced.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org

Hey OP i'm not going to join your site for the following reasons:

1. You mentioned that you are investor and you also said that HOLDing died in 2018. So you are an investor for very short times if you are not HODLing. That is stretching "investment" too thin.
2. You mentioned that you do not follow emotions. This could be right in perhaps pharmaceutical company shares market, but BTC jumps +-%% based on an API crash on one exchange.

I would also like to second some of the replies already given:
1. The number of BTCs mined has nothing to do with the number of BTCs sold: mining companies cut a fee for maintenance, many go out of pocket instead of liquidating BTC.
2. Over the long term, BTC has never been forgiving of people who sell. People who draw charts and lines are either professional day traders or snake oil sellers.

Buying at the right time is the difference between 1BTC and 2BTC. There is no doubt in my mind that 5 years from now bitcoin will be worth significantly more. The question is in 5 years would you rather have 1 bitcoin or 2?

I give people the information they need to get 2 instead of 1,

Aaron

Thanks bro! If that is all you could find, I'm pretty happy.

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

The weekly sample has some minor issues. "Copyright © *|CURRENT_YEAR|* *|LIST:COMPANY|*, All rights reserved. " 

Thank you paid troll,

Find sample analysis here:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

Aaron

I visited the sites and I think you have knowledge on how to analyze the market but the way you express your knowledge here did not put all the factors into consideration! How will you said or trying to assume that all the coins that are mine in a day are sold that same day?  I disagree with this and common sense enable us to understand that miners are also holding for better profits. Miners are not dumpers and their influence on the market is limited! Those that cause the last corrections are the whales that were selling and the buying order was very low.

And? What's your other data? Where is your data to analyze demand? Market price is a function of supply and demand, not one small aspect of supply.

You just keep repeating over and over the market can't possibly support Bitcoin's inflation, without any logic or any attempt to take a deep dive into the fundamentals. "$23.4 million of new investment/day? IMPOSSIBLE!" That's the extent of your analysis!

Even the most ignorant of investors understands that not every mined BTC is immediately dumped onto the market. Miners merely need to cover overheads, and large industrial miners are backed by significant seed money. They are well capitalized and planning their business years out, not immediately selling mining rewards as if they were living paycheck to paycheck.

And by the way, the inflation rate will be halved in a year. And in four years after that it will be halved again. You should probably stop using inflation numbers that don't reflect reality. There will only ever be 21 million BTC, and almost 18 million of them have already been distributed. Next year, there will only be 3 million more BTC mined until 2140. 657,000 BTC mined per year? LOL. I pity the fool that pays for your analysis.


Just like you, there have been countless bears calling the top all the way up. And they have been wrong for months and months now. At $4K, at $6K, at $8K, at $10K......on Twitter, Tradingview, here.

Oh thank you so much paid troll. How is 657,000 newly created bitcoin/ year miner?

If I am false in my view of TA's You have not been to trading view, r/btc, r/bitcoin, or the very speculation board we are on during a pump.

You are shameful in the way that you are trying to mislead people.

I am trying to tell people the truth and provide them with information. You are trying to spread disinformation, and badly at that lol

THANK YOU PAID TROLL

If you would like to see true information about bitcoin, bitcoin cash, Ethereum, and litecoin check out my site!

https://www.amsinger.org

Always a pleasure helping people see some real numbers,

Aaron

You don't have all the data required to analyze mining supply. Different miners have different margins, access to more/less efficient rigs, differing electricity costs. Some like Bitmain are much better capitalized (to hold mining rewards through price drops) than others. You really have no idea where the pain points are for miners. You can only average things out with incomplete information.

More importantly, mining supply is only a small aspect of supply and demand, as pointed out earlier. Not only are you looking at incomplete information, but your analysis is based on only a small sliver of the actual fundamentals.

Of course your analysis is a guess!


That's patently false. You aren't looking very hard.

You are ignoring the reality that it costs money to create a bitcoin. It is called Proof of Work (PoW). It is the fundamental reason bitcoins have any value AT ALL.

The miners collectively create 1800 bitcoin/day by spending money computing problems. This money needs to be recouped, so they sell their newly made coins. This is the natural pressure of high bitcoin. The reason it needs to increase 40% or whatever in a day is because sustained growth like that is not possible. Now the bubble prices have to deal with the sustained pressure of 1800 new coins/day, and that will take it down over time NATURALLY.

If you want to learn the basics how bitcoin risk and cash flow work, please check out my site:

https://www.amsinger.org

I made it to help people to better understand and profit from crypto,

Aaron

Fundamental analysis is not a guess. At certain hash rate levels and electricity rates there is a specific cost to create a coin.

Every TA (which is usually morons with rulers) was saying BTC 18k! 20k! 82.5k! On June 26-now Just absolute nonsense. They are looking for clicks and views, and most of them care nothing for the people that read their garbage.

If you want to know when the risk level for bitcoin will be reduced please check out my site:

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

I don't find any logic behind the quoted market price to be unsustainable. When the price is on the uptrend we can experience such a kind of market move at several points. Most of the time it gets close to the round of value, where it is predicted to go forward after some correction. Same is with the $13800, further it is predicted to reach $15000 barrier which lets the price touch $20k in a very short time period.

This is a day or two old, and it is already proven incorrect. 11k was not supported. You did not mention the miners at all. They are the largest "institution" that is active in crypto. They pay for all the new coins and sell them to recoup their costs and make profit. That is the natural flow of bitcoin.

Why does selling for profit make you mad? I am happy when people make profit.

Check out the creation cost of bitcoin here, see the cash flow and the reality:

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

How can you expect no one to sell in a market? The miners specifically are paying money through electricity and depreciation to create bitcoin, and you expect them to take a loss?

This is complete and utter nonsense. I have a feeling you have very little track record buying and selling crypto for profit.

You can find true educational material and logic here:

https://www.amsinger.org

I hope you enjoy,

Aaron

You have used not logic numbers or information to prove this statement. If we are throwing out empty hyperbole then a monkey can write the play Hamlet. It CAN happen lol

You can find true analysis here:

https://www.amsinger.org

Hope this helps you see the natural mechanics of the market,

Aaron

You are not using any data, information, or logic to support your view. I use the creation cost to understand where the balance point is for bitcoin. When it is high it will face natural pressure to go back down, and when it is down it will face natural upward pressure.

I have a site where you can go to get this information:

https://www.amsinger.org

My goal is to help people get out of magical thinking and start making real money.

Aaron