Topic: Why was $13,800 unsustainable? - page 3. (Read 1259 times)

I'm not remotely bothered myself and I find it a little strange that people who've been here a thousand times before have been getting uptight. The rise appeared with little effort so it stands to reason it'll peter out in a similarly casual fashion.

Five figures is clearly important to them. The market didn't appear to feel the same.

Am I the only guy with a longview who's actually quite happy to see Bitcoin just below $10k again? No, I know I'm not, cause you can see all those sneaky orderwalls being filled up, you can see the freelancers like me filling in their invoices and trying to rush work done during this window of dipping prices, you can definitely see Google Trends still growing (sorry, I know, I shouldn't use this!).

Remember, it took a few weeks to pump 40%. It'll happen a bit slower this time around, but it'll happen. I mean, it's climbing back up now anyway 4% just in this last hour.

good points about TA, i feel like people are putting too much faith into it, and many of them are even pretty bad at making an analysis too!
in any case about this i have to say this is the only reason for the drops. just like any other big rise, this was met with a small short term bubble which needed a correction. and this correction starts by short term aka day traders selling their coins to get their short term and big profit out to get ready to buy back at the bottom of the dip. the only problem was the follow up market reaction to that simple move! which was filled with panic.

It is because no matter how excellent a person is in their TA, it is still a guess.  No one knows what will exactly happen on the next hours for Bitcoin.  TA had become a norm so somehow the market moves along to what it intended to be making some of the TA correct, but for those whales who do not follow it, can easily bust that TA made by any seasoned analyst.  And besides, why does there are several TA method?  Because each method is not accurate to tell the next movement of the price.  Does this TA predict this recent price crash?  

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It was unsustainable ($13,800) because several holders exit for a profit and probably this:


 

The 13K USD price was unsustainable because the whales+HODLers+small traders+lucky noobs started selling their btc to cash out the profits and that selling pressure was stronger than the buying pressure coming from the whales+traders+possible institutional investors(I'm not quite sure about the third group).
There's support for 11K USD,which is great.

I think as long as sellers do not sell at these prices then buyers do not need to spend that much money neither. We can theoretically speaking can increase the price of bitcoin without spending a single dollar. How? Simply just nobody buys but sellers do not want to sell at these prices so everyone removes their sell orders and then the lowest amount of bitcoin being sold is 20 thousand dollars and people buy there, that way from here to 20 thousand dollars there are no sellers at all and only at 20 thousand dollars there are sellers which would mean bitcoin price all of a sudden becomes 20 thousand dollars. That is just an example and it would never happen but it shows how we can just sustain the price increase by not selling as much as buying a lot as well.

It can still break the $13800 area. The reason why it took such a hard fall was because it was almost up 20% in less than 24 hours and it had over 1 billion of open positions which were mostly high leverage.

When the sell-off started, there were tons of liquidations and towards the end I think $200-$250 million of open interest was evaporated, probably a world record for BTC.

Basically too many people were too bullish and didn't think a 35% pullback was possible and got rekt. It happened many times in the past, especially with Bitcoin.

It is not possible for bitcoin to stay in that position because due to growth it always needs some correction in order to increase it to further level. Don't bother on time again the price of bitcoin will surely increase in the market.

For some reason I think that you have your own purposes for being on this board. I don't think it is to help others or bring new information to light. I think your desire is to pursue a specific agenda regardless of the effects you cause or the people you hurt.

I do indeed wish that you find fulfillment in your life going forward. I don't hate the playa.

But once again.... THANK YOU PAID TROLL!

Much love,

Aaron

So you focus on one aspect of supply, while ignoring all other aspects of supply and demand? Is that the long and short of it?


This really makes me want to pay you money. You seem like a real professional.

I know you have trouble reading english Mr. Troll, but this is a thread focused on understanding the fundamental cash flow needs of bitcoin based on its active supply increases due to mining and the cash requirements needed to compensate the work of said miners.

You are a cute little troll! Yes you are! Cute little troll! I love it when your little tail wags!

Thanks paid troll!

Aaron

P.S. If you would like to see the creation cost and learn about understanding risk in crypto please check out my sample analysis!

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

You finally used a number! 18, I'm pretty impressed!

I'm so proud of you troll! Thank you so much paid troll!

You used your first number.... They said you can't teach moronic trolls new tricks, but I said no! You CAN teach morons new tricks!

Thanks paid troll!

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

That's exactly the point. High levels of shorts = strong buying pressure, because shorts must be bought back to close the positions. Low levels of longs = weaker selling pressure, so price can rise more easily. Sustaining these price levels while maintaining such high shorts from lower prices suggests shorts will continue to be squeezed.

These indicators aren't the be-all-end-all of supply and demand, but they definitely affect it. They provide a glimpse of sentiment regarding which side of the market traders are piled on. Markets tend to pursue maximum pain so when most traders are short, we go up.


Long and short levels =/= TA and have nothing to do with charts. They specifically relate to Bitcoin's supply and demand.

I seconded!

Theres no such technical analysis that would able to predict on whats the price ahead precisely.We would only know that the said analysis is true when we already reach the said price that had been targeted but somehow we wont able to put up conclusion that those indicators or tools does really work.

you haven't demonstrated that. what i said was common sense logic---due to the difficulty adjustment algorithm, miner costs adjust to price. therefore, price directly affects hash rate, not the other way around.

you have done nothing to prove your claims that price can be derived from hash rate. you just keep repeating these statements about "cash flow" without any data or logic to back them.

you're not providing proof that your analysis is effective. in fact, your predictions have all been wrong! you're just throwing a bunch of useless numbers out there and hoping it makes you look intelligent enough for noobs to buy your service.


what about the other nearly 18 million coins that have already been distributed over the past decade? market demand is a hell of a lot stronger than just absorbing miner supply!

your analysis essentially doesn't seem to consider demand at all.


like it or not, if you can't demonstrate value, OGs will keep calling you out when you try to sell a service here.

demonstrate your value.

Thank you paid troll.

You have used no data to support your statement. You have used no logic to support your statement. You haven't even used any numbers at all. You are simply saying words. Words tied to nothing.

You demonstrate a lack of understanding of how bitcoin works on a fundamental level. You do not seem to understand that cash flow is the most important part of any financial article.

The miners create 657,000 bitcoin per year, that is a significant amount of coin. They represent the largest and most stable source of cash flow supporting the price of bitcoin.

What purpose do you have saying your empty words on here?

But thank you any way.

Many thanks paid troll!

Aaron

You can find sample cash flow and data here if you would like to gain from 6 years of experience monitoring the growth and development of bitcoin:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

Thanks I guess?

i'm glad there's a few people upping the value of your thread with analysis that's actually useful. it balances out the irrational stuff you're trying to sell to unassuming noobs.

like i told you in your other thread, your entire mode of analysis defies logic. hash rate follows price. investors (ie supply and demand) don't care what miner costs are and they certainly aren't monitoring hash rate changes. miners OTOH are extremely interested in the spot prices investors are wiling to pay because it determines the viability of their mining operations.

the vast majority of the bitcoin supply is not newly mined coins---miners have an exponentially smaller effect on supply than you suggest.

Ok here is some technical 





The 10 SMA on the daily is still holding strong, there is a good chance we push right through 13.8K to 16K without the need to correct, tho it's more likely that we do test the higher 9k area which is where the 20 SMA at.


Thank you mad troll.

My analysis is not technical; it is fundamental. Fundamental analysis does not predict price movements based on previous prices, technical analysis does.

In comparison price to earnings ratios (P/E ratios) in stocks is fundamental analysis. It is not "wrong sometimes". P/E ratios demonstrate the health of a company based on its legally required financial submissions. It is not guesswork; it is financial accounting.

When I say $13,800 BTC requires a continual investment of ~$23.4 million/ day to pay out the miners for their 1800 btc/day contribution, It is reality not guesswork. Whether a person thinks that $23.4 million/day is sustainable it is up to them. But that the $23.4 million/day is needed is a financial reality.

Trying to input poor technical analysis into a fundamental analysis thread is attempting to change the subject and is off topic. I have to smack these people down when they try to pollute a fundamental analysis with off topic technical analysis drivel.

There are plenty of technical analysis threads and boards, but this is a fundamental analysis thread. I need to spread the fact that there is true fundamental analysis based on the creation cost of bitcoin and crypto. Most people do not know that there is actual cash flow and fundamentals backing these coins.

Check out cash flow and creation cost stats on my site:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

Much love and thank you for bringing this to attention,

Aaron