Will Avalon Batch 3's ever make ROI?

marra

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Quote from: dani on July 15, 2013, 05:47:49 AM

Quote from: marra on July 15, 2013, 03:52:05 AM

first units of batch #3 will be in customer hands in 3, 4 days, currently machine is making 1.3btc per day, so yes, in 3, 4 months, you're good with ROI...

3-4 days if you live in china I guess. Delivery from china to europe or usa? Many days more my friend

nope, anywhere on the globe... 4 days apx...

jspielberg

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Quote from: cypherdoc on July 15, 2013, 08:56:22 AM

if anyone is in California and wants to sell their Avalons unboxed on arrival, i'll pay $3000 cash for each.

I am afraid you are going to need exceed refund pricing if you want add to your farm. Bitsyncom has set the lower bound on pricing.

cypherdoc

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if anyone is in California and wants to sell their Avalons unboxed on arrival, i'll pay $3000 cash for each.

alpet

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Expected time delivery to Russia ~3 weeks, due delay at customs and slowpoke EMS service.

koob

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Quote from: dani on July 15, 2013, 05:47:49 AM

3-4 days if you live in china I guess. Delivery from china to europe or usa? Many days more my friend

Batch#2 delivery was pretty fast AFAIK.

dani

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..yeah

Quote from: marra on July 15, 2013, 03:52:05 AM

first units of batch #3 will be in customer hands in 3, 4 days, currently machine is making 1.3btc per day, so yes, in 3, 4 months, you're good with ROI...

3-4 days if you live in china I guess. Delivery from china to europe or usa? Many days more my friend

ailikun

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Quote from: marra on July 15, 2013, 03:52:05 AM

first units of batch #3 will be in customer hands in 3, 4 days, currently machine is making 1.3btc per day, so yes, in 3, 4 months, you're good with ROI...

thats what you think and hope for.

But based on the first and second batch delivery, it may take up to a month, till they deliever them.

And at that point, your ROI looks really bad.

marra

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first units of batch #3 will be in customer hands in 3, 4 days, currently machine is making 1.3btc per day, so yes, in 3, 4 months, you're good with ROI...

k9quaint

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Quote from: grue on July 14, 2013, 04:55:09 PM

Why would you ask on a forum? There are very strong incentives for for other miners to mislead you. Competing miners using different hardware will want you to waste money on Avalon, whereas Avalon miners will want you to refund (so they have less competition).

This is a question that can be answered with math for a range of difficulty growth rates. Of course, nobody can predict exactly what the growth rate will actually be. One can assign probability to the range and make a decent model of ROI for the various flavors of ASIC mining hardware.

But your comments about conflict of interest are correct.

grue

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Why would you ask on a forum? There are very strong incentives for for other miners to mislead you. Competing miners using different hardware will want you to waste money on Avalon, whereas Avalon miners will want you to refund (so they have less competition).

Syke

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I estimate a batch-3 delivered today to take about 3 months to break even (roughly 80 btc). Since batch-3 hasn't started shipping yet, that's an optimistic view. Difficulty increases are just going to accelerate over the next few months. Batch-3 will likely break even by the end of 2013. Not bad, but not great either.

k9quaint

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Quote from: Bogart on July 13, 2013, 03:18:47 PM

Quote from: mik3 on July 12, 2013, 09:32:46 PM

With KNC/Bitfury/Terrahash/ASICminer/etc + Avalon chips coming online very soon, and no way to recoup Batch 3 costs in 1 month as originally planned by Bitsyncom, do you think ROI is likely?

...I am thinking ROI seems impossible.

Well of course you'll earn *some* Return On your Investment unless you never plug the Avalon in, or you do nothing but solo-mine and never mine a block.

Maybe you mean 100% ROI?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_investment

From that article:
return on investment = (gain from investment - cost of investment) / cost of investment

If the cost of the investment is larger than the gain from the investment, ROI is negative. 0% ROI is when you gain from the investment the same amount you spent on the investment.
In this case, the cost of the investment is 80 BTC (IIRC).
If the gain is only 70BTC, then the ROI will be (70 - 80)/80 which would be -12.5%.

jspielberg

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Quote from: ujka on July 13, 2013, 03:48:41 PM

If the network grows gradually up to 1200TH this year, 70GH Avalon can mine 80btc (august-december).

Here is a google spreadsheet I did while back. I just updated the numbers with exponentials returned from Wolfram alpha.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc#gid=8

and a link to the OP:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/google-doc-with-exponential-fit-lead-time-and-linear-rate-target-236050

It basically says that an exponentially growing hash rate tracking since Feb. 5th will put an over clocked 4 module at break even around mid October.

Whether this models reality ... who knows... but it does but the eventual Avalon at 130% before it stops making sense to mine with it.

Feel free to make your own changes and see if you think it is worthwhile to do a refund.

Oh... I made the difficulty continuous rather than every 2016 blocks because I figured that you are competing with the global hashrate at the time... if the hashrate is always being added, then your effective difficulty is continuous.

ujka

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If the network grows gradually up to 1200TH this year, 70GH Avalon can mine 80btc (august-december).

Bogart

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Quote from: mik3 on July 12, 2013, 09:32:46 PM

With KNC/Bitfury/Terrahash/ASICminer/etc + Avalon chips coming online very soon, and no way to recoup Batch 3 costs in 1 month as originally planned by Bitsyncom, do you think ROI is likely?

...I am thinking ROI seems impossible.

Well of course you'll earn *some* Return On your Investment unless you never plug the Avalon in, or you do nothing but solo-mine and never mine a block.

Maybe you mean 100% ROI?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_investment

jspielberg

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The problem is that the Avalon's are first generation tech. Which is great if you can sit on your lead for a while.
At this point, the newer competition is only a month or so away (and with 100TH mine maybe only weeks away).

It would be interesting to find out what was the problem which killed their ability to produce Batch2 and therefore hold back Batch3.

Component sourcing issues like not enough chips?
Administrative payment issues with wallet bit?
Was it the new production line?

Could these problem happen again with future products?

I still think that Batch3 will make a decent profit... but because of its power/GH ratio, it am not even sure the chip machines will makes sense to run very long (6 to 9 months if you are paying for your own power).

I think the biggest winners are the trade in folks... 17 BTC for a 80+ GHs machine is quite the steal (well other than the beginning batch 1-ers).

cmdbill

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Quote from: dogie on July 13, 2013, 12:46:45 PM

Quote from: cmdbill on July 13, 2013, 12:44:49 PM

ROI should be calculated with BTC strictly, which is 74.46 BTC (3 module no PSU). If you want to go off of dollar amount for some reason. You would want to calculate what the price of BTC was during batch 3 sales. $75 was the price on the largest exchange so a batch 3 unit will need to make $5,584 back.

That's not the correct way (IMO) to do it. You need to compare it to the 'sell' price today, which is a refund. So the equivalent value to break even is 75*today's price.

Regardless BTC74.46 is the ROI.

dogie

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dogiecoin.com

Quote from: cmdbill on July 13, 2013, 12:44:49 PM

ROI should be calculated with BTC strictly, which is 74.46 BTC (3 module no PSU). If you want to go off of dollar amount for some reason. You would want to calculate what the price of BTC was during batch 3 sales. $75 was the price on the largest exchange so a batch 3 unit will need to make $5,584 back.

That's not the correct way (IMO) to do it. You need to compare it to the 'sell' price today, which is a refund. So the equivalent value to break even is 75*today's price.

cmdbill

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ROI should be calculated with BTC strictly, which is 74.46 BTC (3 module no PSU). If you want to go off of dollar amount for some reason. You would want to calculate what the price of BTC was during batch 3 sales. $75 was the price on the largest exchange so a batch 3 unit will need to make $5,584 back.

Sitarow

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Not totally sure if I'm using http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit properly but it seems to me ROI should be expected after around 100 days (in my case).

Quote from: Sitarow on July 13, 2013, 10:22:07 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on July 13, 2013, 05:33:01 AM

Anyone see this nice Bitcoin difficulty predictor? Looks like October might bring a difficulty over 100 million!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXn4BnLUgYsdEF0TUtWUWtUaUUzR1F2aUhEWW9lN2c#gid=0
I can't imagine pre-ordering for October at the same price and Gh as August. Again 25Gh orders further out should be cheaper as with the 400Gh model.

Here is a revised sheet with product lifetime profits at today's prices and an Aug difficulty of 64 Mill on the manufacturers top end hardware

I have updated the document to have multiple sheets along with Comparison between Multiple ASIC Hardware Vendors Vs Difficulty Sheets.

Combined Multiple Sheet Document https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdEpqX2RmMDFwemJyLURVUWFtZ3J3aGc&usp=sharing

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