Yes no maybe?
My most optimistic estimate would be 3-4 months. That is if you start hashing right now, most Avalon Chip projects get delayed, KnC and Bitfury fail to deliver on time (or at all) and Asicminer doesn't need to move up their hashrate to maintain their share of the network.
Probably more realistic assumptions:
-) Asicminer partially manages to reach their goal and puts 200TH online by October
-) Those 200TH are required to maintain a share of 20% of the network, because KnC, Bitfury, etc. at least partially delivered.
-) Which would mean a total hashrate of 1000TH resulting in a difficulty of 140,000,000
If you manage to run the miner for 2-3 months before this happens you can still assume a total timeframe of maybe 6-9 months of operation until break even. Which in the real world isn't as bad as it sounds.
Worst case for Avalon Batch 3:
-) Everyone delivers on time. We all know the likeliness of this. Break even gets delayed for 2-3 years whichs means probably never.
The truth will be somewhere inbetween. It all boils down how much confidence you have in the other companies to actually deliver (and how well they manage to stick to their schedule)
Topic: Will Avalon Batch 3's ever make ROI? - page 2. (Read 2420 times)
You aren't going to make ROI in 2 months anymore. Those days are LOOOONG gone.
Looks like you're using even more conservative difficulty estimates than me.
My numbers come in at about 3-4 months using a 66 Gh/s avalon.
Not really too surprising. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Looks like you're using even more conservative difficulty estimates than me.
My numbers come in at about 3-4 months using a 66 Gh/s avalon.
Not really too surprising. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
I had the 88 BTC (price of batch 3 IIRC) earned back in between 16 to 20 weeks for 66 GH/s if the unit arrived today.
That is a decent return IMO.
I don't think it will unless you overclock it severely. There was a good difficulty-adjusted calculator (http://www.coinish.com/calc/ - link doesn't work now) which showed that they wouldn't ROI in BTC if delivery was later than about 2-3 weeks from now.
I think there are still a lot of batch 2 units in transit as well, when they are all plugged in the difficulty should rise quite a bit. Then there's at least another 40 THash/sec from all the batch 3 units (conservative -assumes all 3 module units). That's nearly a 6m difficulty increase just from Batch 3.
BFL will probably finish shipping 'in two weeks' so there's more too...
I think there are still a lot of batch 2 units in transit as well, when they are all plugged in the difficulty should rise quite a bit. Then there's at least another 40 THash/sec from all the batch 3 units (conservative -assumes all 3 module units). That's nearly a 6m difficulty increase just from Batch 3.
BFL will probably finish shipping 'in two weeks' so there's more too...
You aren't going to make ROI in 2 months anymore. Those days are LOOOONG gone.
Looks like you're using even more conservative difficulty estimates than me.
My numbers come in at about 3-4 months using a 66 Gh/s avalon.
Not really too surprising. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Looks like you're using even more conservative difficulty estimates than me.
My numbers come in at about 3-4 months using a 66 Gh/s avalon.
Not really too surprising. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
With KNC/Bitfury/Terrahash/ASICminer/etc + Avalon chips coming online very soon, and no way to recoup Batch 3 costs in 1 month as originally planned by Bitsyncom, do you think ROI is likely?
I tried some numbers and it looks like with the difficulty going up the way it is now it would take 4-5 months to make the coins back. But with all those other companies coming online, I am thinking ROI seems impossible. Someone convince me otherwise, I am contemplating getting a refund
I tried some numbers and it looks like with the difficulty going up the way it is now it would take 4-5 months to make the coins back. But with all those other companies coming online, I am thinking ROI seems impossible. Someone convince me otherwise, I am contemplating getting a refund
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