If it does become a long-term trusted store of value, BTC should trade around $2,000,000 a coin (depending on how many coins are lost and are actually in circulation). That is over 100x the price of where BTC is today.
If BTC does not become a long-term trusted store of value, its likely price will be close to zero (unless it becomes a "cool" collectible... which is a possibility).
So if you think BTC has a 10% chance of becoming a long-term trusted store of value, it is a good investment with a nice expected return. It is still very risky but professional investors should invest some small portion of their portfolio in this case.
your criteria are too much, dont push it, $2,000,000 a coin??? seriously? the price of bitcoin is dependent on a real time traffic of demand versus supply, who would buy bitcoin with that price? bitcoin today has proven its long term value, from the day it started up to this date, for sure bitcoin will increase its price from time to time but you have to consider the market share of altcoins and other crypto in the future, you can rest assured that bitcoin can be relied on even for a long term. just trust the system and read all the graphs and read the market.