Individuals familiar with Bitcoin widely believe that its price will increase significantly during halving events. This collective assumption drives the upward momentum of Bitcoin. People fear missing out on the potential uptrend and therefore contribute to the price increase by continuously buying Bitcoin. Consequently, the positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin halving plays a crucial role in fueling its upward movement. Moreover, if positive news coincides with the halving period, it can further intensify the price surge, resulting in a substantial increase in Bitcoin's value.
Belief originated simply because of what happened before but in fact, there's no assurance of things. We cannot be certain that the price would increase once halving occurs. One instance is with ETH Fork. Well, two are different things but these two are comparable for having large network. But thing here is that, things may still go the other way around, as expected. This is simply because of nature of market price volatility. But since there is a dominant belief that its price would increase, then the tendency for such thing to happen would be higher. But for sure it won't be a date near halving; either late or early.As they say, history may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme. As I've stated several times before... I think we're going to see the exact same thing that we've seen in multiple previous cycles now. Traders will run up the price to the halving in anticipation of the event, then we will see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" situation where traders take profits sending the price downward immediately after the halving. Then once a new bottom is found the market rallies like hell for 18 months with a blow off top. Sure, things like FTX fraud could alter that course a little, but the destination from here will look the same.
