The whole 2022 might be just the start of the bearish season. We are in a completely different situation right now compared to the previous bearish run. Most economy in the world right now are struggling and it definitely will have an effect to Bitcoin, not to make it worse but will most likely to maintain it's price range while economy is recovering. Now, I'm afraid 2 years might not even enough, let alone the whole 2022.
There were still a lot of things that's continuing to hurt the global economy, until it's not resolved we are most definitely not going to see another ATH, let alone the $100k.
Exactly, you can look at historic cycles all you want, but when you look outside of that the current situation we find ourselves in, is no where near to what it was in past cycles. I sound like a broken record now, but we're literally heading for one of the worst recessions that most of us have experienced. I don't know if it's going to be comparable to the great depression, but it might be. Since basically the whole world shut down during the pandemic, and is only a few months ago starting to fire back up into full swing. So, that's roughly two years of a stagnant economy, that means many smaller businesses would've been struggling, and likely with increasing cost of living, means they'll likely have to offload staff.
Those people lose their jobs, and therefore need to either find a job or live very frugally, and with help off the government, which then negatively influences the economy. We've already seen the downturn in the housing market, we've already seen the extortionate fuel increase, as well as the general grocery increase.
This might not sound like it's related, and you might argue that this makes Bitcoin more appealing than a fiat currency that's subject to inflation, while that might be true, people's perspectives change during times like this. They focus on necessities rather than speculative investing. Bitcoin is currently speculative investing for most new comers. So, the buying power if you will, is going to decrease massively over the course of the next year.
It depends how bad this recession is going to be, and how long we'll be in the thick of it, to be able to accurately determine whether or not Bitcoin can recover to previous levels soon. I do think this year is off the cards though, I'd be pretty damn confident in that.