This Bitcoin phenomenon is interesting. It really is an experiment in mass psychology. The value of Bitcoin depends solely on confidence, since it is backed by nothing (dissipated power doesn't count!). I can tell you this from personal experience. I had a considerable stake in Bitcoins during the April crash, having bought in at the low $100s. I eventually liquidated my position and considered giving up on this altogether. Admittedly, I was in it for the wrong reasons (get in, get out, get rich). I decided to throw caution to the wind and daytrade. It was quite easy double or even triple a stash post crash, to my delight (high volatility and no real trends to speak of, just sloshing back and forth - easy coins!). Then, I was caught up in the
second Bitfloor fiasco, where the exchange closed its doors. I panicked and sold my Bitcoins minutes before the exchange went offline (I expected a massive price correction across all exchanges - stupid, stupid, stupid). I had to wait several months to get my fiat out (I have to hand it to Roman, he held up his end of the bargain). A few months ago, I went all in sub $200 and have been very pleased with the performance. The experience gave me a much stronger hand. Whales feed off of weak hands. Plus, the earlier you jump in, the deeper the market has to correct before you'll get heartburn (generally). My advice to newbies is this: Take everything you can afford to lose and either go all in on Bitcoin or spread a portion of your stash across the ocean of altcoins out there (everything from Litecoins to Quarkcoins, Stablecoins, etc). Then, forget about cryptocoins for a few months. Watching charts does you no good if you don't plan on daytrading.
I've been lurking around these forums for about a year and there are many subhuman people here who are interested in nothing more than spreading unsubstantiated fear, doubt, and negativity. You see the same people popping up and humping that Bitcoin doomsday leg, hoping for some cheap coins. What a sad existence. If you want a good laugh, go back several months and look at all of the failed predictions, hunches and "security flaws". Regarding Bitcoin's future, nobody knows what will happen. No one person or group can match wits with hundreds of millions of entrepreneurs. We are all along for the ride .. some will get lucky with their guesses. One thing is for certain. As the price increases, the technology and surrounding infrastructure becomes increasingly robust (think of money flooding into a developing nation). Thus, the likelihood of a deep crash becomes increasingly improbable as the days march on. There will be bugs, glitches, scares, etc. and people will panic sell, losing their shirts in the process. Problems will be fixed. Fears will be dispelled. The price will recover.
Regarding $10k, I'd say the price will (over the "long term") either go to basically $0 or will run far beyond $10k. For it to go to $0, I think there would have be a global cataclysmic event or a competing technology so
obviously superior in every way that no one would ever use a Bitcoin again. This reminds me of Facebook vs Myspace, but you know what? There are still millions of people who use Myspace for some reason. Being the Myspace of the cryptocurrency world wouldn't be all that bad for a worst case scenario