Topic: Will BTC hit $10.000 in Q1 of 2014 ? - page 2. (Read 7919 times)

if it is an S-curve (and it looks like it so far) it will decelerate when the market is saturated. The market is only pretty much saturated when everyone who wants bitcoin, has bitcoin. And as long as people realize the dollar is just worlds biggest ponzi scheme (and any other fiat is as well), they will eventually want bitcoins.

so pretty much until everyone has bitcoins, the s-curve will grow.

that is, unless there are some unexpected events, such as a bug in the code, limited scalability or the rise of a better coin. Or a large part of humanity being too stupid to understand they're putting all their trust in monopoly money and fraudulent banks.

I dont think it will hit 10k so soon but at the end of 2014 that might happen.

The US economy is huge and has ramifications on most other markets world-wide.

So, watch the US economy and more specifically the Fed. The U.S. had really upbeat economic news last week, jobs/consumer confidence on Friday and GDP earlier in the week. Ironically, when the GDP report came in with a great number (albeit from inventory buildup), the stock market tanked. Why? Because investors are heavily dependent on the Fed's QE and they felt that the positive report indicated QE may be off the table, and may have also felt the inventory build up won't be sold in Q4. Then, on Friday, the jobs numbers and confidence came in with nice prints. Which helped lift the market. Why did the good news this time lift the market? Because it appeared as though the economy may actually be on real, legit footing, so the taper thoughts may not be as bad as initially thought.

Truth is tapering would destroy the stock market. QE is artificially inflating it. I believe the reaction on Friday was interesting because it filtered, in my opinion, into the Bitcoin market dive. The US economy on (seemingly) solid footing strengthened the dollar vs. Bitcoin. I think that's temporary, and the US dollar will continue to weaken, particularly as we near another debt ceiling debate.

This isn't to say other international markets, and movements by their central banks, won't matter. They will. So eyes should be on all of economic activity and central bank policy alterations.

If I had to guess, we'll see more and more versions of international money printing and a continuation of dismal economic activity globally. Therefore, Bitcoin will continue to gain momentum.

And, this isn't even talking about the growing demand as more are exposed to Bitcoin.

All in all, I think $10,000 is achievable and within 2014.

What I find interesting with the current trend is that the price have already dropped several times in the past month, noteable the US senate hearing and the china announcement but would go up in price shortly after. I admit I thought it would crash with the last weekend event, but it already have recovered even if not at a high.

I'm getting the feeling that there is a lot of people who want to buy BTC, but also think it's currently overvalued and is staying away from buying. So ironically  the high price might be a psychological hinderance for adoption, even if just in the short term. And I cannot exactly blame them, it sucks buying BTC just before the bubble pops... just ask people who bought BTC at 250 USD last April.

So true, but what else to expect when everyone here have and use Bitcoins already

Difficulty affect the mining return, and mining is the lowest cost to acquire bitcoins. If there is a projection of multiple mining equipment makers delivering large amount of hash power (during the first half of 2014), the price will rise first

And this is part of the fun.
1. You never can know at which point we currently are at the s-curve. It depends, what the full potential for Bitcoin is. Store of value among many like gold? Currency for black market? Currency for the internet? Currency for everything?
2. Bad unknown news can always drop the price to zero. The s-curve is an ideal curve for successful technologies or companies. We don't know if Bitcoin will ever get successful. As far as we are, it is not. It is just speculation (you cannot use it now, but maybe in the future). I don't mean gambling or bubble. There is always speculation. It was so with cars, the internet, 3d-printing, Mini-disc-player (flop) etc.  

Is there a thread somewhere discussing the relationship between hashrate and BTC price?



This is the first argument that I have heard that has tempered my price expectations. It makes sense to me, but upon further thought, the backbone of the transport system are the miners. For the transport system to be healthy, miners need to make a profit via block rewards and transaction fees. Related to my question above, I therefore wonder if anyone has modeled BTC value versus hashrate (probably need subtract electricity and other costs from a BTC price).

Another factor that could affect the value of the transport system is the range of value amounts (dollars, yen, or whatever) that people / institutions want to transfer. In other words, the system needs to be large enough in terms of market cap in order to absorb these amounts without causing large volatility. ("velocity" of money?) Enough maturation to achieve this situation wont happen by Q1 2014 of course, but long term, this must make the value of a BTC very higher. I also wonder how this and the miner effect could influence each other.

Cheers.

Exactly. So don't trust such simply explorations like: "So we grew 1000% the last year, and 2000% this year, so we will groß 3000% next year, and 4000% ...". And than they draw a line on a log chart, just to look more serious. And then they tell you, when the price is below that line, you should buy and above the line sell.
-> That is just stupid forecasts...

So many fucking bulls in this thread lol... but I do hope you guys are right

I bet that it will, in less than a year

And that is a good thing for the strength of Bitcoin, as long as it stays decentralized. Also, there should be more incentives for new pools and less for BTC Guild (although they are doing a better work than the mining market, I must say). It's too bad that 50BTC went wrong.

If difficulty rise 10x, that might happen, otherwise no

2 years I agree. But not Q1

Maybe not in Q1, but I expect that we'll see the first 10.000ish bubble at least within the next two years, and a sustainable 10.000+ as soon as Bitcoin becomes mainstream. IMO, the latter requires upper layers to facilitate Bitcoin adoption as a clearing and P2P banking system.

How many percent growth had Facebook, when the first (big) investors jumped in? First Facebook was worth literally nothing. Maybe 100$. Then Peter Thiel bought in for 500 000$. What growth was that?

Facebook is now worth 50 billions(?). I would say Bitcoin would be worth 1000 bill. when it is matured(but we will never know, if it will ever reach its potential). So we are atm far away from that so big jumps are possible (in percentage). 

I used to buy paid apps, before I found bitcoin and google suspended my wallet account for no good reason.

Now I don't buy them on principle.

if this were to happen i would actually start purchasing paid apps

True, the % gain in this year is much more than trend would suggest. There is not much room for rising this year or early next year

And once again that familiar feeling of amusement at the thought of it happening, mixed with a large dose of rationally thinking that that shit can't possibly happen, topped with a slice of, but what if it does ... again...!!?

Based on what happened in 2013, we would see:
$  1,330 Jan 1
$  2,050 Feb 1
$  3,450 Mar 1
$10,400 Apr 1
$11,500 May 1
$12,925 Jun 1
$  9,200 Jul  1
$10,600 Aug 1
$14,400 Sep 1
$14,200 Oct 1
$20,300 Nov 1
$95,000 Dec 1