I love exploration like that. Bitcoin was at 13$ one year ago. So the price is risen 6600%. So therefore the in one year the price is at 50 000$. An by the end of 2015 we see 350 000$. And guess what we see in 2040
Oh yeah, from dec 2011 to dec 2012 it were only 400%?
Hm let's see:
Dec 2009: 0$, so we skip that.
Dec 2010: 0.24$
Dec 2011: 3.5$
Dec 2012: 13$
Dec 2013: 900$
So we draw a regression line. Or let's just calculate: 0.24*(growing rate)^3 = 900$
-> 1500%
So:
Dec 2014: 13,500$
Dec 2015: 200,000$
Dec 2020: 150000000000$
Dec 2050: you get the idea
-> and this is exactly what rpietila did. I think he also never heard of a S-curve.
Where are we on the s-curve? I think we are very low and the market is far from saturation. Assume all smart phone holders might be a good top end number for adoption (although M-Pesa and such are still key)
exactly, the exponential increase will stop at some point, but it's not at all unlikely we're going to see $100,000 or $1,000,000 or even $10,000,000
yes, i'm fully aware that $1,000,000 per
BTC would put us in a trillion market cap, but there's a lot of money floating around so it's not as unrealistic as you may think initially. It could happen by 2020ish (or earlier or later, it all depends on what stage of the S curve we are in and how long the curve will continue).
look at it this way, there will only be a couple of people EVER that will hold >1
BTC and even less that have >10,000
BTC, currently there's only a handful of people that has $1,000,000 and even less that have a billion. So, if bitcoin becomes one of the most important currencies (and there's really no reason for it not to become a significant world currency), it's not unlikely that we would have bitcoin billionaires and millionaires. There are already some, but still there's way less bitcoin millionaires (in $) compared to millionaires in stock markets.
