There is two quotes that have got stuck in my head when we talk about speculating very high prices per BTC. I dont even know if this is correct or not but from the perspective of BTC there is an value range based on the cost the mine 1 btc we can try to extrapolate the speculation range for the price of 1 btc.
Taking these viewpoints together, one way (and not the only way) of looking at 1MM/btc implies that the mining cost would either have to be at 1MM/btc on the low end or on the high end. I think thats very far away though, maybe another 10-15 years, few more halvings need to happen as the driver(from this perspective) to push mining costs to where 1MM/btc is attainable.
The first quote here, from Hal Finney talks about a potential correlation between cost to mining and price.
One reason price might follow difficulty is that mining should not be too profitable (because nothing should be too profitable, the world doesn't leave free money lying around). Therefore the price of Bitcoins can't rise too much above the cost of mining (counting equipment depreciation among the costs of course). The cost of mining is proportional to the difficulty (approximately). Therefore we might expect to see price proportional to difficulty.
We do see a nearly proportional relationship in the 1st graph, but that data set was incomplete. I'd like to see that last graph redone with a linear difficulty scale so we could see how the proportionality holds up with more data.
The second quote is from Franky1, about ranges and speculated price ranges.
imagine it this way
imagine the most expensive location to mine bitcoin on the planet being japan and hawaii where by in 2021 the mining cost max of the planet was $75k
imagine the most efficient location to mine bitcoin on the planet being asia and slovic areas where by in 2021 the mining cost min of the planet was $15k
now imagine speculation psychology...
if no one on the planet can mine for less than $15k then no one wants to sell for less and everyone would turn to buying at that low.. this creates a support wall to stop it going down below $15k
if everyone on the planet can mine for less than $75k then no one wants to buy for more than $75k everyone would turn to mining and selling at that high.. this creates a resistance wall to stop it going up
well now in 2023 the support of the planet is about $22k and the resistance is at $150k
and the market ALWAYS speculates between the periods support/resistance of the economy
..
the resistance and support does rise at a slower pace and the market speculates randomly within the moving limits
as long as the mining cost/competition continues we will not see a zero bottom again