there is no option to vote that we will stay below $500. Why? I wanted to vote it.
In my opinion we will stay around $350 for the month of December, with possible touch of $400, but not exceeding that level for the longer spell. we are simply not that close to the halving event to influence the price that much. Other than that I don't see other reasons for the price to go up substantially, at the moment.
It might not be close to the event, but the thing we are talking here is about the manipulation of prices we are seeing these days, and not much concerned about these price hikes as it is normal during the period of November-January...
We have all witnessed the price boom & slack of Bitcoins during such months, so whether or not we get any reason behind it, we may see something new everyday here, as each day of these months come up with a big surprise, who knows where will BTC be tomorrow???
Just imagine...
I believe the title of the topic is quite clear, and I expressed my opinion that I don't expect to see $500 again in December. What will happen later that is another story.
Bitcoin is not a seasonal asset yet, in fact there is too little historical data to draw such conclusions at all. To be honest, I am not sure if I understand what you are talking about. To believe that the history repeats this year, just because similar events happened last year (just ONCE!) is not very reasonable thing to do, to say the least.
You are correct to predict that possibly bitcoin will not meaningfully progress out of the $300s this month. however, the more that you write, the more it becomes clear that you do not understand the upside potential of BTC.
Yes, it is correct that there may be a lot of pressures keeping bitcoin prices down and potentially able to continue to be successful in the relatively short term to keep BTC prices down in the $300s or even possibly sub $300s.
Nonetheless downward pressure and even some people feeling less than enthusiastic about BTC is going to be much too little to keep the upward price momentum and exuberance, once the baby starts moving up and the snowballing begins to occur.. and even a few whales could cause such, if it does not result from a broader grass roots momentum.
Your characterization of a ballooning of BTC prices as: "just ONCE" also either fails or refuses to adequately account for BTC's history.
In order to better understand BTC's history, if that is what you are claiming to have described, you better go back more than 2.5 years. I will give you a hint... BTC started in early 2009... and I believe the first trading for value of BTC came either 2010/2011 time-frame (depending, in part, on how you define trading).