Will The FED pivot? | Bitcointalksearch.org

DeathAngel

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Quote from: Edwardard on May 10, 2023, 09:13:21 AM

USA CPI Data Update:
CPI:
4.9% YoY, 0.4% MoM
Forecasted: 5.0% YoY, 0.4% MoM

Core:
5.5% YoY, 0.4% MoM
Forecasted: 5.5% YoY, 0.4% MoM

Its a great news guys, the inflation is falling gradually if not drastically. Now, hopefully the fed wont raise its interest rates the next month. Markets are already celebrating today's data anyways.

Hopefully the FED pivot but they haven’t indicated that they will yet. They said they will continue to increase if they need to. I was too young to have a real interest in 2008 during the financial crisis but when they decided to pivot, was it the start of a bull market for stocks & other assets?

Basically will pivoting lead everything to go up?

Texac

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Quote from: Edwardard on May 10, 2023, 09:13:21 AM

USA CPI Data Update:
CPI:
4.9% YoY, 0.4% MoM
Forecasted: 5.0% YoY, 0.4% MoM

Core:
5.5% YoY, 0.4% MoM
Forecasted: 5.5% YoY, 0.4% MoM

Its a great news guys, the inflation is falling gradually if not drastically. Now, hopefully the fed wont raise its interest rates the next month. Markets are already celebrating today's data anyways.

i think they will stop raising rates next June because not only has inflation come down, but they have already reached their initial target of 5%-5.25%. but I'm not in a hurry to cheer even if they stop raising rates because we don't know how long they will keep rates at that high level. if they want to maintain them for the next 6 months or a year, that will be much worse than we think. but it's good to see the market reacting positively to this news, bitcoin is back above $28k.

Edwardard

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USA CPI Data Update:
CPI:
4.9% YoY, 0.4% MoM
Forecasted: 5.0% YoY, 0.4% MoM

Core:
5.5% YoY, 0.4% MoM
Forecasted: 5.5% YoY, 0.4% MoM

Its a great news guys, the inflation is falling gradually if not drastically. Now, hopefully the fed wont raise its interest rates the next month. Markets are already celebrating today's data anyways.

Yaunfitda

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Quote from: Edwardard on May 03, 2023, 03:28:59 PM

Update: Just in, The FED increases interest rates again by 25bps for this month.
Powell's speech: Neutral. You can't trust anymore of this man's words anyways. From 75bps to 50 to 25. Atleast we are slowing down with time.

Market reaction: Sideways till now.

Or we take that with a grain of salt, and then have a slight 1% increased in 24 hours. But I do agree that again, we should be skeptics when Powell open his mouth with regards to the interest rates.

For sure he knows his words are powerful and that's why he try to be as neutral with his words. But we need definite answer though, if the US economy is looking great or on the brink again. But for him, it's fine they are doing great, Lol, but sooner or later it might bite him back with this kind of statements.

Edwardard

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Update: Just in, The FED increases interest rates again by 25bps for this month.
Powell's speech: Neutral. You can't trust anymore of this man's words anyways. From 75bps to 50 to 25. Atleast we are slowing down with time.

Market reaction: Sideways till now.

thecodebear

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I'm thinking they'll still do 25 point raise today. Though its definitely possible no raise today and then go back to 25 point raise in May, given the several banks that collapsed this month.

I think after today (whether there is a raise or not) we'll only see one or two more 25 point raises before they stop and hold the rate at until next year, unless some economic things start failing,g like more bank collapses or something, in which we could see the interest rate start dropping earlier like by end of this year.

It probably would make the most sense to not raise the rate today cuz of the banking collapses. And then do one more in May. And then by hopefully by June inflation is under 5% and they figure they can just coast on the ~5% interest rate through end of the year and let inflation gradually fall.

UPDATE:
Ah yes they did indeed do a 25 point raise as expected. Though they took out a line in their report about "ongoing rate increases" so we're definitely getting near the top of the rate. Seems like maybe one more 25 point raise in May is expected and they may stop after that. Good news. Bitcoin has seesawed a lot today, was going up this morning then dropped hard likely just on people trying to manipulate the price leading up to the Fed announcement. Good news though. I bet we'll see further upside in BTC price in the near future.

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Quote from: Edwardard on March 22, 2023, 11:02:06 AM

The FED interest rate decision today (just in a few hours), will be most exciting to watch, especially after all the most recent banks crisis.
BTC is already trading above the year highs before the data right now. Anticipation is high this time.

I will edit this post after the interest rates are out.

EDIT: The fed raises interest rates by 25bps.
Reaction: Neutral. I expected no rate hikes this time but still okay.

This is what I expected. The bond market has been predicting this and historically speaking the bond market has always been the best predictor of what the fed will do. I think this is likely to be the last interest rate hike of the cycle. It’s clear that going higher from here will cause a long recession and while that would make inflation appear to be under control, it would be a disaster for the economy. They need to pause now.

Edwardard

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The FED interest rate decision today (just in a few hours), will be most exciting to watch, especially after all the most recent banks crisis.
BTC is already trading above the year highs before the data right now. Anticipation is high this time.

I will edit this post after the interest rates are out.

EDIT: The fed raises interest rates by 25bps.
Reaction: Neutral. I expected no rate hikes this time but still okay.

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Ideally the FED will not want to pivot, it will want to hold not just now but this entire year and this action is the least they want to in order to ensure inflation is headed off. Whether the FED hand is forced by wider reasons is another matter, ultimately I dont think the FED is in control of what plays out but near term they can keep rates 'high' and its not a big deal.
Long term USA national debt is too expensive at a rate at 5% or above, it will be forced into emergency measures to repay and reduce large fiscal budgets. I think there is trouble in that real feedback beyond intentions and planned policy.

Edwardard

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Update:
New CPI data just in:
US CPI:
6.4% YoY, 0.5% MoM
Forecasted: 6.2% YoY, 0.5% MoM

US CPI Core:
5.6% YoY, 0.4% MoM
Forecasted: 5.5% YoY, 0.4% MoM

Unfortunately we got a higher than expected readings this time, now gotta see how the FED reacts to this in the next rate hike meeting. So far the markets are holding but hope they keep holding up the following week. After this data, Im 50-50 on both sides. Maybe they will raise rates by 50bps on the next one?

Edwardard

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Quote from: Edwardard on January 12, 2023, 09:45:06 AM

Next Fomc meeting at 1st feb expecting 25bps hike instead of 50, we are getting on track guys!

Update: Just in, As expected, the FED hikes rates by 25bps, but since the market is already pumped, we didnt get much reaction here at 23k.
But the FED is slowly changing their sentiments it seems, good for the upcoming yearly trend if this continues like this.

Edwardard

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Just an update to this thread,
New CPI report just came in today

US CPI:
6.5% YoY, -0.1% MoM
Forecasted: 6.5% YoY, -0.1% MoM

US CPI Core:
5.7% YoY, 0.3% MoM
Forecasted: 5.7% YoY, 0.3% MoM

Next Fomc meeting at 1st feb expecting 25bps hike instead of 50, we are getting on track guys!

Lucius

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Quote from: Welsh on December 22, 2022, 01:13:44 PM

~snip~

I would even dare to say that the war directly or indirectly affected more than a billion people, because the EU alone has a little less than 500 million people, and what about all those poor countries that depended even more on cheap energy sources and grain that came from Russia and Ukraine. I think that the West should have been much firmer and more determined towards the war and given Ukraine what it was asking for so that it could defend itself and return the occupied territories - because people are fighting like lions against a far superior enemy. Give them what they want and I'm sure they will end the war within 6 months.

Quote from: newbtc101 on December 22, 2022, 01:43:55 PM

There maybe a fourth scenario concerning Russia vs Ukraine, I have heard rumors that Ukraine may get a new leadership and peace negotiations will resume meaning there will be a (hopefully) win-win situation(or call it loose-loose) but the ultimate outcome would be to end the conflict sometimes in 2023. Meaning a possible rally for bitcoin.

You mean some pro-Russian leadership that will turn a blind eye to everything that happened and give Russia 20% of Ukraine? That would not be any leadership, but a group of traitors - if the Russians want to end the war, they just need to remove the crazy emperor from the throne.

Quote from: newbtc101 on December 22, 2022, 01:43:55 PM

Assuming that 2023 will look like 2019 when Q2 had nearly 160% rise in btc price, your prediction that btc will start to rise sometimes in April does make sense. However, sometimes in June Mt. Gox will likely release some btc as well so that April - May rally could be short and will likely resume in Q4.

Mt.Gox is news that is obviously abused by many in the sense that the compensation payments will cause a new earthquake on the crypto market, and we know that the payments will not happen all at once, and that in addition to Bitcoin, it will be possible to request payments in fiat or even an altcoin.

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Quote from: doomloop on December 22, 2022, 06:56:19 AM

That is only for now but it was stated that the rates will increase the next time. Also, I think there is no way that fed rates will only go down. There are times where it will go down but there's also a time where it will go up again. It's still possible for some things to return to normal because not all things depend on the fed rates.

By the way, how can you say that 2024 is going to be a good thing for all? Is it because of the btc halving? But if the rates won't normalize, I think the price of BTC is still going to be affected but yeah a fall on the price of the cryptos shouldn't discourage us all. Rather it should give us a motivation to buy for more. Time will come that their value are going to recover and pump again.

Rates do not matter, because it means that the general economy would recover if the rates recover, and by 2024 I am pretty sure that the rates will be at a normal place, or even if it is high compared to past, we will at least get used to it by then.

However, none of that matters because when there is halving, bitcoin becomes more valuable, so even if the market is not recovered by then, it will still cause bitcoin to go up because it is now more valuable and the amount of bitcoin we mine per day will go down, meaning both less resources available but also higher price to make sure miners are happy. Both of those combined would make it go up no matter what type of market we are in, it will just take longer for it to show on the prices.

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Quote from: OgNasty on December 22, 2022, 01:53:34 PM

More and more people are starting to publicly call for an end to these rate increases. Unfortunately for all of us, the Fed is responsive to data, they are absolutely horrible at predicting things. So bad in fact it’s hard to believe it isn’t done on purpose so they can manipulate investments and grow their own balance sheet. When will they decide they’ve inflicted enough pain? Who knows. I just know they’d stop now if they cared about the people on main st.

Well, they're doing it out of response of what's happened recently. It's unavoidable that rates will go up, and continue to do so. That's how our money system works worldwide. The UK has already done it, but even more significantly which resulted in a massive crash of the pound. The US are at least doing it at a much slower rate, to try to assure the value of USD. Ultimately, we all know that this slow approach only delays the inevitable, but it should lessen the blow for a lot of people.

In other parts of the world people were paying $1 for x item, and now they're paying $1.80. That's a overnight change, whereas the approach the US are taken should at least gradually increase the cost of living. I imagine they're doing it in direct response of other countries.

But, the rates have to go up, otherwise the government risk losing out significantly which they aren't going to do. So, this will continue to happen, and recessions are going to continue to happen. Bitcoin should be less effected due to its deflationary manner, but anything that's subject to inflation will continue to be subject to that. We can't really avoid that.

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Quote from: Edwardard on December 10, 2022, 03:37:40 AM

The most important data of the month is upcoming on the 13th of December, THE US CPI REPORT,
Jerome Powell gave hopes of pivoting in his last speech, however Elon musk's recent tweet is concerning. Everything depends on this report and then the FED's interest rate decision on 15th.
What will be the impact on the price of BTC after the CPI report?
Short term guesses? Just a few days remaining!

It seems that the current condition of the Bitcoin price continues to dump. It's not looking good after the little pumps of the previous few days. Even the price has returned to $ 16.5k or reduced by 4.5% in the last week. I think this condition will continue until the end of the year. In 2023 there will be a new start, and we will see the future of crypto between the global economic crisis and the recession of 2023. Will Bitcoin be able to survive it all?

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Quote from: OgNasty on December 22, 2022, 01:53:34 PM

More and more people are starting to publicly call for an end to these rate increases. Unfortunately for all of us, the Fed is responsive to data, they are absolutely horrible at predicting things. So bad in fact it’s hard to believe it isn’t done on purpose so they can manipulate investments and grow their own balance sheet. When will they decide they’ve inflicted enough pain? Who knows. I just know they’d stop now if they cared about the people on main st.

I think that unemployment rate in Jan and Feb of 2023 will show that true pain especially due to massive after Christmas lay offs. Will this be taken into account by the FEDs? I doubt but I still hope ...

OgNasty

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More and more people are starting to publicly call for an end to these rate increases. Unfortunately for all of us, the Fed is responsive to data, they are absolutely horrible at predicting things. So bad in fact it’s hard to believe it isn’t done on purpose so they can manipulate investments and grow their own balance sheet. When will they decide they’ve inflicted enough pain? Who knows. I just know they’d stop now if they cared about the people on main st.

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Quote from: philipma1957 on December 22, 2022, 12:56:10 AM

Well I am not the dullest tool in the shed or the sharpest.

As you can see there is a website devoted to clocking the possibilities of going bankrupt for long term care companies.

I never would have thought to apply it to clock fed rates.

I found it last year when my brother in law got sick.

I used it because I was checking on genworth to figure out if my brother-in-law would be able to keep collecting his long term care insurance.

As I kept checking it the bankruptcy dropped from 45% to 32% and the company became more solvent. In time with the fed rate increases.

Did my research an realized close to three trillion in value is held by long term care companies in usa.

In the last year the industry has recovered 15% in value. about 450 billion in value gained.

I am sure others check that website to figure out the health of insurance companies like genworth.

The are smart and skilled at guessing the when companies become safer or safe from going bankrupt.

From what I can see these companies could use till June and keep loading up better bonds.

I lean to The June date not the April date for the fed to pivot.

So I believe rally could start in April-May time frame as a response to guessing pivot starts in June.

Lots of outside factors can make all of that wrong.
ie Ukraine 🇺🇦 vs Russia 🇷🇺 has a sudden turn.

Ukraine wins Putin dies Russia gives all of Ukraine back = monster rally.
Ukraine loses Putin becomes more powerful = big ass slump
Ukraine and Russia drags on for a few more years sideways sideways sideways.

Thank you for your thoughtful response and I am sorry to hear about your brother.

There maybe a fourth scenario concerning Russia vs Ukraine, I have heard rumors that Ukraine may get a new leadership and peace negotiations will resume meaning there will be a (hopefully) win-win situation(or call it loose-loose) but the ultimate outcome would be to end the conflict sometimes in 2023. Meaning a possible rally for bitcoin.

Assuming that 2023 will look like 2019 when Q2 had nearly 160% rise in btc price, your prediction that btc will start to rise sometimes in April does make sense. However, sometimes in June Mt. Gox will likely release some btc as well so that April - May rally could be short and will likely resume in Q4.

Just my 2 cents

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Quote from: Lucius on December 22, 2022, 12:44:28 PM

As much as the pandemic has left its mark on the world economy, for me at the moment it is much more important that there is a raging war in the middle of Europe, and regardless of what some will say that it is between Ukraine and Russia, we all know that the stakes in this war are much higher. Although inflation has hit the whole world, Europe has undoubtedly lost cheap gas and oil from Russia, which means that it will suffer the most until it adapts.

So regardless of whether "they" have learned something from past economic crises, this is about something that is much more complicated to solve, and as time goes on it will be even more difficult. In any case, I can agree that difficult years await us, but we must adapt or it will be even more difficult.

Yeah, it's both combined, and a few other factors on the side. The war has impacted the lives of millions that aren't even directly involved in the war. In the UK food prices have gone up as a direct reaction to the war, as well as energy prices. The governments around the world are doing what I'd call damage control. They know that a massive recession is coming, but they're trying to control at what speed that'll occur. Recessions typically last a long time, multiple years, and sometimes decades. There's an argument that we're still recovering from past recessions, and therefore there's a compounding effect each time.

This one looked particularly grim after the pandemic, but as well as the war. So, by increasing interest rates, and what not steadily instead of all at one time; reduces the immediate impact. However, it probably does prolong the recession though.

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