Topic: Will The FED pivot? - page 2. (Read 705 times)

As much as the pandemic has left its mark on the world economy, for me at the moment it is much more important that there is a raging war in the middle of Europe, and regardless of what some will say that it is between Ukraine and Russia, we all know that the stakes in this war are much higher. Although inflation has hit the whole world, Europe has undoubtedly lost cheap gas and oil from Russia, which means that it will suffer the most until it adapts.

So regardless of whether "they" have learned something from past economic crises, this is about something that is much more complicated to solve, and as time goes on it will be even more difficult. In any case, I can agree that difficult years await us, but we must adapt or it will be even more difficult.

Just expect a rather bumpy road for as long as the recession might last, which could be quite a few years. I think that's the most realistic expectation to have. It probably won't be on 2008/2009 levels since they should've learned from that, but I wouldn't be absolutely sure of that.

I've been saying for a while this likely will be one of the biggest recessions that a lot of us has seen, and I don't think I've changed that thought process. I just think we'll likely deal with it better. The government seem to want to lessen the blow, and therefore not cause a sudden crash by steadily increasing the interest rates this time around, which will help with that panic induced crashes.

That is only for now but it was stated that the rates will increase the next time. Also, I think there is no way that fed rates will only go down. There are times where it will go down but there's also a time where it will go up again. It's still possible for some things to return to normal because not all things depend on the fed rates.

By the way, how can you say that 2024 is going to be a good thing for all? Is it because of the btc halving? But if the rates won't normalize, I think the price of BTC is still going to be affected but yeah a fall on the price of the cryptos shouldn't discourage us all. Rather it should give us a motivation to buy for more. Time will come that their value are going to recover and pump again.

Well I am not the dullest tool in the shed or the sharpest.

As you can see there is a website devoted to clocking the possibilities of going bankrupt for long term care companies.

I never would have thought to apply it to clock fed rates.

I found it last year when my brother in law got sick.

I used it because I was checking on genworth to figure out if my brother-in-law would be able to keep collecting his long term care insurance.

As I kept checking it the bankruptcy dropped from 45% to 32% and the company became more solvent. In time with the fed rate increases.

Did my research an realized close to three trillion in value is held by long term care companies in usa.

In the last year the industry has recovered 15% in value.  about 450 billion in value gained.

I am sure others check that website to figure out the health of insurance companies like genworth.

The are smart and skilled at guessing the when companies become safer or safe from going bankrupt.

From what I can see these companies could use till June and keep loading up better bonds.

I lean to The June date not the April date for the fed to pivot.

So I believe rally could start in April-May time frame as a response to guessing pivot starts in June.

Lots of outside factors can make all of that wrong.
ie Ukraine 🇺🇦 vs Russia 🇷🇺 has a sudden turn.

Ukraine wins Putin dies Russia gives all of Ukraine back = monster rally.
Ukraine loses Putin becomes more powerful = big ass slump
Ukraine and Russia drags on for a few more years sideways sideways sideways.

I agree that sometimes between April to June 2023 Feds will flip. Overall, 2022 looks like 2018 and if you check 2019, btc started to rise at the end of Q1 but mostly went up in Q2.

One thing though... if Feds flip in April, shouldn't the market react earlier like 2-3 months before that due to insider information, so we will see btc go up sometimes in February  - April? (2-3 months before the flip in April - June)? What do you think?

As I have said in multiple posts the fed has found a way to bail out all the USA long term care polices.

How simple raise rates.

If you realize just how much the long term care companies were in the hook back in Jan 2022

and how much they recovered in one year it is pretty obvious that they will continue to boost bond yields which are pretty much the only thing long time care policies invest in.

my brother in law has dementia. he has a policy with genworth a major long term care policy company.

they were rated to have a 45% shot of going bankrupt december 2021
they are now rate to have a 32% shot of going bankrupt december 2022.


https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.61478856


read this post and you can see how poorly genworth did with low bond interest the 2019 to 2021 time frame

read how they did 2021 to 2022 with high bond rates.

hint they went from 99 billion to 114 billion

there are 14 companies like them.

all were next to dead december 2021.

all are coming back due to the feds actions in 2022.

I see at least two more hikes to continue to help the ltc industry.

maybe four hikes.

If you check the top long term care company ratings and compare dec 2021 to 2022 you can see this was a huge bailout for them.

btw.  these rates are a huge bailout for federal workers starting jan 2023 and social security payouts.

they will likely not stop.

keep checking on genworth at this website

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/GNW/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

I suspect that rates will rise and improve their bottomline for as much as June 2023 .

Keep in mind there are about 14 companies that are like genworth and everyone of them is getting this “help”

so maybe april but likely june  we flip.

This is not the reason. The dollar index is mostly the euro. The index accounts something like 60% euro and the yen is only 10% of that.

It’s pretty much old news at this point. The stock futures crashed but later the stock market rallied anyways. I think most people knew they would increase the yield control curve anyways because it was not possible to sustain 25 bps.

It will be a larger effect if they extend it to 100bps in the next few weeks.

Crypto went up on the BOJ moves because it lowered the dollar slightly I think that it gives some weight to the possible continued decline in Dollar index since YEN is part of that.  The larger part on FED actions is they will never meet or counter inflation properly, the intended course is to weaken Dollar every year by at least 2% which adds up to alot.  They will more then achieve that mark, we are not presently, past or future anywhere near to hard monetary standards.   Long term the idea of pivot or not isnt going to be significant, its only balancing speculative sentiment at the moment by some fear of harder money but that shadow will never land.

What you say feels true and real but if it's so obvious why does the majority of people ignore this opportunity?

We all know that FED will pivot. We all know the stock market is manipulated by the FED to look worse than it is and discourage investors.

We all know they are printing money that makes the dollar worth less and less each year.

Why do people dance into their music, panic when they want them to panic, sell when they want them to sell, keep exchanging valuables into dollars when the dollar is pumping? Looks counterproductive at the very least.

It seems to me that all of this data is artificially created, because with the amount of dollars printed in 2020-2021, inflation should have been a lot more than the FED claims. And their fight against inflation, when the entire stock market collapsed, is also a special manipulation, which benefits not the economy but a certain group of people. So anything can happen in 2023, it's hard to guess.

I think it is important to note that it's not going up as much as it used to, and it's going to be lower and lower and eventually we will reach a world where it's going down instead of going up. In that world everything will get back to normal, maybe not today and maybe not even in 2023, but by 2024 everything should be normal.

This means that any investments you made so far in 2022 wasn't for nothing, if you kept it, and if you continue to buy more in 2023 as well then when the time for normalization in economy comes then you will make a lot of profit. I personally believe that long term profit is achievable and on the horizon, we just need to be a bit more patient.

Yeah, and referencing the previous posts a few days before that, I'm even more convinced that the Fed wants everyone to feel the massive hurt first. They want this century's great depression to happen. I do see it as a positive if really it's to finally bring about UBI again for US citizens -- really shouldn't have waited 50 years to table the discussion again.

So I don't think we'll see massive hikes, but they're probably going to keep another half point before tapering it off -- pretty sure we should be ready for at least half of 8 rate changes to be positive, and the remainder to just be unchanged.

Impossible to say with certainty more than the next adjustment...

It’s hard to say, almost impossible.

Just now we had the BOJ raise the yield curve control to 0.5% and it tanked the equities and bonds, crypto went up surprisingly. So this is proof that the fed won’t pivot.

However we got crazy inflation, low unemployment , and 2023 economy will be very weak and if CPI drops to like 3% most likely they should pivot.

Impossible to tell.

There are so many different factors that affect the market, you cannot rely on the Fed announcement to predict the direction of bitcoin. The news that the Fed cut interest rates is not big enough compared to what the market is facing with Fuds on Binance. People care more about this than the Fed rate, if Binance really collapses, nothing will save the market. In addition, bitcoin is unpredictable, the movement of bitcoin does not follow any rules, and it is not good news that bitcoin always increases and vice versa.

Correct. However, powell was saying he will do anything he can to get the inflation down to 2%. But Im sure he got no idea and will change his statement anytime as he keeps doing each time.

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BTC traders should get rid of him and stop reacting to fed too much hopefully. Up only mode 2023!

One day it looks like they’re going to slow their cuts, the next it sounds like they’re going to continue for some time… This is why you can’t be a trader and are better off taking a long term approach. I personally think that we aren’t going to see rates go as high enough to cause a massive crash from here, and we appear to be nearing those levels, so I think any rate hikes in 2023 will be quarter point hikes and probably only in the first half of the year.

Update: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.5% just now, and laid out the carpet for a slower pace of hikes ahead, but signaled that rates will have to move higher than previously projected as inflation remains well above target.

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Source: Investing.com

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BTC and stocks reacted not so great even tho 50bps was expected by everyone

Considering it looks like it's better than expected, I am not saying that we won't have an increase, but it's true that it may not be 75 points, maybe 50? Something like that.

It is not really great for the markets though, I mean we are talking about a situation where it's still rising, meaning people will still make more money from interest, and that means money going into banks, and that means less money in the markets. That will continue to be the case until we reach to a point where they start to drop the interest rate, doubt that would be easy, so that means we are going to see the market be like this for a while until people are used to it at least.

I didn't miss it, the price since the CPI announcement until now is only $18k, and now it's a little under $18k, haven't touched $19k yet.
Despite the FUD around binance, the market has recovered slightly with a lower-than-expected CPI, and tonight we get news of the last rate hike of the year. If everything goes as expected, the Fed only increases 0.5% then I believe we will have a rally that lasts until the end of the year. And a price of $19k as you mentioned or higher than $20k is possible.

Yeah, short of saying that the recession has somewhat stopped and inflation slowing down. 7.1% versus the previously expected 7.3%.

Sot it's good news to us, as we have seen the price is jumping around to $19k with this announcement.

Lots of FOMO so let's see if this is sustainable at least at the end of the year.