So its pretty much end of August and so far nothing I heard about the distribution of the coins. Anyone a creditor who has some insider information on exactly when this distribution should start?
Right now as we break $20K, doesn't seem like a good idea to release all these coins which will obviously cause some dumping in an already illiquid summer market. Also the news of Mtgox coins hitting the markets bids is going to scare off many people.
Topic: Will the Mt. Gox coins affect Bitcoin’s price in August? - page 3. (Read 804 times)
Yes! Absolutely. The release of Mt.Gox coins in August will cause the price of bitcoin to continue its downtrend.
I'll start with maybe, but I don't expect much. The market will deal with FUD, that's for sure and I think the price will go down.However, I don't think all customers will sell their bitcoins blindly like when the altcoin market just opened, maybe not bitcoin. Some people will sell and enjoy the results, but in any case it will have an impact on the price of bitcoin in the market.
There will be a negative impact on the market, but more or less we are unable to predict the extent. According to my opinion, there is no need to worry, as Mt.Gox will not pay off all the bitcoins all at once to its creditors, maybe they'll split it up in batches.
There are some people who will not sell their bitcoins once they have received them, as they have seen the strong growth of bitcoin over the years, so it is possible that they may decide to keep them rather than sell them.
Yes! Absolutely. The release of Mt.Gox coins in August will cause the price of bitcoin to continue its downtrend.
I'll start with maybe, but I don't expect much. The market will deal with FUD, that's for sure and I think the price will go down.However, I don't think all customers will sell their bitcoins blindly like when the altcoin market just opened, maybe not bitcoin. Some people will sell and enjoy the results, but in any case it will have an impact on the price of bitcoin in the market.
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Will the Mt. Gox coins affect Bitcoin’s price in August?
Yes! Absolutely. The release of Mt.Gox coins in August will cause the price of bitcoin to continue its downtrend.
They are not releasing 400K worth of BTC. When they got hacked they got somewhere like 850K stolen however after they shutdown they somehow recovered 200k or so. It was from some other hack but they somehow got 200K to give to the victims. The rest was never recovered.
They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.
They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.
I'm pretty sure that isn't right. No dollars have ever been distributed that I'm aware of. If there were, I would have received something. I believe I only had a few cents in there but I did have a decent amount of BTC.
It's also worth noting that BCH is going to be distributed as well. I assume most of that will be market dumped. This is actually a positive in my opinion as much of that BCH money will flow into BTC. I doubt it will be enough to counteract the amount of BTC sold, but it's something...
Back in 2017 the trustee sold like 60K worth of bitcoins for fiat, where did that money go? My understanding was that it was to make everyone whole in terms of dollars on the day when MtGox went bankrupt. So 1 BTC was like $900 or so.
If you had 1 BTC they would send you $900. I never followed up on whether the creditors got the money. However why else would they sell 60 K worth of bitcoins if nobody received them?
"...many creditors have already sold their claims to crypto funds. Groups such as Fortress Investment Group LLC offered creditors an early payout of between $600 and $1,300 in cash.
This will mitigate some of the selling pressure, but not all of it. But, I think most others that have been waiting years are going to wait for the next bull run. At which point 200000 coins although a large number is not going to matter much as they are not all going to be dumped at once. And even a few hundred or a few thousand being put into the open market over a few days is not that big a deal IMO.
When Gox went out of business, bitcoin was trading at approximately $600, and the ATH was around $1200. The price is currently shy of being 30x the price when Gox filed bankruptcy. These people have not been HODL'ers by choice -- their coin was locked away. Common sense would indicate that when the mtgox coins are distributed we would see a very large selloff. This is just the reality.
Is it? Common sense would suggest that if the trust offer you BTC or fiat, then you would accept fiat. Not accept Bitcoin in order to sell it for fiat yourself. Am I missing something here? Unless those receiving fiat would receive it after those who accept Bitcoin, then it seems like a much better deal to have the trust sell your Bitcoin for you, rather than sell it later via spot on a potentially depressed market.
It's also worth noting that BCH is going to be distributed as well. I assume most of that will be market dumped. This is actually a positive in my opinion as much of that BCH money will flow into BTC. I doubt it will be enough to counteract the amount of BTC sold, but it's something...
I thought the trustee sold the BCH a long time ago? Around the time of the chain split, or a few months after. 
They are not releasing 400K worth of BTC. When they got hacked they got somewhere like 850K stolen however after they shutdown they somehow recovered 200k or so. It was from some other hack but they somehow got 200K to give to the victims. The rest was never recovered.
They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.
They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.
I'm pretty sure that isn't right. No dollars have ever been distributed that I'm aware of. If there were, I would have received something. I believe I only had a few cents in there but I did have a decent amount of BTC.
It's also worth noting that BCH is going to be distributed as well. I assume most of that will be market dumped. This is actually a positive in my opinion as much of that BCH money will flow into BTC. I doubt it will be enough to counteract the amount of BTC sold, but it's something...
They are not releasing 400K worth of BTC. When they got hacked they got somewhere like 850K stolen however after they shutdown they somehow recovered 200k or so. It was from some other hack but they somehow got 200K to give to the victims. The rest was never recovered.
They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.
They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.
Ah that was the part I was missing: that this time the victims would actually be getting coins and not dollars, I'd always somehow remembered that they'd be getting everything in dollars.
Now it makes me wonder if they were waiting for price bottoming out to make people a bit more whole than they would have been able to.
Still, even if it had been a sale, 100k BTC isn't going to move the market much, really. Deal would have been done OTC and spread across batches anyway.
They are not releasing 400K worth of BTC. When they got hacked they got somewhere like 850K stolen however after they shutdown they somehow recovered 200k or so. It was from some other hack but they somehow got 200K to give to the victims. The rest was never recovered.
They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.
They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.
There’s also the question of how many people will accept the early payouts as opposed to waiting to try and get more BTC. They’ve waited this long… Why not wait longer to get more BTC? Especially after the market’s recent lows. I myself will admit I have considered deferring the payment for longer to try and maximize the amount I recover.
I understand that the ghost of Mt. Gox is still haunts us up to this day. But I guess life has to move on, so in any case the effect will not that significant, short term maybe, some might sell get their fiat. But who knows, maybe majority will continue to hold specially how Bitcoin grows since the hacks happen. Investors are getting smarter by every bull/bear cycle that they have experience. So I don't think there will a dent in the price this coming August because of this news.
It can't really move on and that is mainly there are tens of thousands of bitcoins there, like literally amount that would be insanely dropping the price to a low level where it can't recover. At one point the "lost" amount was 400k bitcoins, surely not all would be recovered but could you even imagine that? 400k bitcoins would be around 10 billion dollars and the market is not ready for that.Of course, we just had the news of Tesla selling 1.5 billion and it was alright, so that 400k which probably won't happen, could still happen and we would be fine and it would be alright. I personally believe that the best thing to do would be just letting it be, but people can't, it’s just way too much to ignore.
I understand that the ghost of Mt. Gox is still haunts us up to this day. But I guess life has to move on, so in any case the effect will not that significant, short term maybe, some might sell get their fiat. But who knows, maybe majority will continue to hold specially how Bitcoin grows since the hacks happen. Investors are getting smarter by every bull/bear cycle that they have experience. So I don't think there will a dent in the price this coming August because of this news.
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Usually rumours about Mt Gox have adversely affected the market, but these are just rumours
This should be underlined, the known supply of Mt. Gox coins already will be having an effect on prices even before they are 'physically' exchanged into the order books. Theres some magnetic forces in price vs news and rumor of future action is acknowledged to have an effect, to the extent that many believe you should then immediately reverse course at the point of the news occurring. So the day Gox coins are known to appear and some sold, ironically we see then will have some bullish effect.
Its very confusing, similar has been said of Tesla or Elon Musk selling a large amount of what he previously picked up in the bull run of 2021 (for a rich 'self-made' man he is fickle for sure), 75% of its gone so its been noted this reinforces a possible concrete low for BTC. We dont know the low is good but the 'negative' news and the fact its now in the past, this is totally a reasonable positive to appreciate with going forward.
Usually rumours about Mt Gox have adversely affected the market, but these are just rumours. If bitcoins do get distributed to previous owners, they will not necessarily sell them. Especially I don't think such amount will be distributed in several transactions. Most likely this process will be done in parts and will last for a long time. Therefore it seems to me that all this will not affect the market much.
The bitcoin distribution will be paid out in installments and take place in batches, which is not likely to affect the market much. But what we should be afraid of are the whales, maybe they take advantage of this situation to spread bad news and create panic in the market again.
As a whole, their main aim is to find a way to collect that amount of bitcoins at a low cost, Thus, it is most likely that there will be FUDs causing a drop in the market in the near future.
into those early years where value isnt that high then selling into the current price wont really be that a bad idea.It is just good if it would really be given by parts but we cant really be still that confident
that those owners wont really be considering on selling out once they are able to get in.
We cant really be sure on what would be the price action in the month of August but considering as Ghost month i suppose then i wont really be that much of a surprise
if we do go down comparing on what the price we are seeing as of this moment.
I thought they would, but now I doubt it.
Usually rumours about Mt Gox have adversely affected the market, but these are just rumours. If bitcoins do get distributed to previous owners, they will not necessarily sell them. Especially I don't think such amount will be distributed in several transactions. Most likely this process will be done in parts and will last for a long time. Therefore it seems to me that all this will not affect the market much.
The bitcoin distribution will be paid out in installments and take place in batches, which is not likely to affect the market much. But what we should be afraid of are the whales, maybe they take advantage of this situation to spread bad news and create panic in the market again.
As a whole, their main aim is to find a way to collect that amount of bitcoins at a low cost, Thus, it is most likely that there will be FUDs causing a drop in the market in the near future.
137,000 BTC is not a very big number to make a huge difference in the market, of course it will have an impact, but it is limited, meaning the price can drop a little, but not as it is exaggerated by some.
You must not forget that bitcoins will not be distributed at once to the victims, but will be distributed in batches and in spaced time periods, also not all victims will succeed in passing the conditions of the claim because if they cannot prove their old accounts on the exchange, they will not get anything, all of this It makes me think that the impact of the price will be very limited.
While it is true that in theory the effects of those coins should be limited, there are many actors trying to move the market at all times, this means they could take the opportunity to try to create panic and make the price of bitcoin to crash again, we cannot really underestimate those people as this is one of those opportunities that from the outside seem like the perfect moment to try to create a significant drop in the market, scare weak hands and get their coins for a very low price. You must not forget that bitcoins will not be distributed at once to the victims, but will be distributed in batches and in spaced time periods, also not all victims will succeed in passing the conditions of the claim because if they cannot prove their old accounts on the exchange, they will not get anything, all of this It makes me think that the impact of the price will be very limited.
Common sense would indicate that when the mtgox coins are distributed we would see a very large selloff. This is just the reality.
Is it? Common sense would suggest that if the trust offer you BTC or fiat, then you would accept fiat. Not accept Bitcoin in order to sell it for fiat yourself. Am I missing something here? Unless those receiving fiat would receive it after those who accept Bitcoin, then it seems like a much better deal to have the trust sell your Bitcoin for you, rather than sell it later via spot on a potentially depressed market.
While generally I'd agree that an increase in "available" or "active" circulating supply provides selling pressure, even though OTC will absorb them through the trust selling, I think this can be another case of "sell the rumour buy the news", just like the "bearish" CPI numbers announced last week. In summary, price could have already factored in the MtGox coins, just like the CPI announcement.
I've heard too many people claim "price will fall" if inflation numbers are bad, if MtGox coins are released, etc, etc. So far, they are sounding like a bunch of idiots to be honest as price proves otherwise.
Many people have had their coins trapped for a long time and will need to sell them immediately because life happens.
These people are unlikely to ever see their coins again, that's the irony though, they will just see the fiat compensation from the trust.
The thing is that the big investors know this is coming, and they may in fact have been causing this crash in order to scoop those coins for cheap.
This I agree with. I think part of the selling pressure was partly due to the anticipation of MtGox coins hitting OTC. Now they scoop for them up for cheap (maybe they already are for all we know).
Good investors always tend to be a step ahead, so as the Bitcoin market has matured we've seen more frontrunning
This is ironically precisely my point. The dumb investors are going to waiting for a huge drop after the coins are distributed (completely unaware of the exact manner in which the coins will be dealt with), while the smart investors will have either positioned themselves according or already booked in their orders OTC. The smartest investors will likely be front-running the buying via OTC, given how cheap BTC currently is.
If price was around $30K support and looking weak, I think this would be a different story, and we'd likely see price fall to $20K where it is now. Likewise if it was around $40K we'd see a drop to $30K support or lower. But currently, price is already very cheap (at a 4-year average), many long-term investors aren't worried about buying at $10K or $20K, they'll simply want to already dip their toes in the water as it were.
In the long-term, better to buy at $20K then double down at $10K, or otherwise double down at $40K even, then simply waiting for a price that may never happen...
137,000 BTC is not a very big number to make a huge difference in the market, of course it will have an impact, but it is limited, meaning the price can drop a little, but not as it is exaggerated by some.
You must not forget that bitcoins will not be distributed at once to the victims, but will be distributed in batches and in spaced time periods, also not all victims will succeed in passing the conditions of the claim because if they cannot prove their old accounts on the exchange, they will not get anything, all of this It makes me think that the impact of the price will be very limited.
You must not forget that bitcoins will not be distributed at once to the victims, but will be distributed in batches and in spaced time periods, also not all victims will succeed in passing the conditions of the claim because if they cannot prove their old accounts on the exchange, they will not get anything, all of this It makes me think that the impact of the price will be very limited.
Common sense would indicate that when the mtgox coins are distributed we would see a very large selloff. This is just the reality. Many people have had their coins trapped for a long time and will need to sell them immediately because life happens. The thing is that the big investors know this is coming, and they may in fact have been causing this crash in order to scoop those coins for cheap. Good investors always tend to be a step ahead, so as the Bitcoin market has matured we've seen more frontrunning, the way the market sold off when it should have been bubbling in the first dip from the 60s. For now, all we can do is wait and see how things play out. I do feel the bottom will be coming in the next couple of months if it isn't already behind us. The next bull market is accepting passengers...
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