Topic: Will the Mt. Gox coins affect Bitcoin’s price in August? - page 4. (Read 804 times)

Usually rumours about Mt Gox have adversely affected the market, but these are just rumours. If bitcoins do get distributed to previous owners, they will not necessarily sell them. Especially I don't think such amount will be distributed in several transactions. Most likely this process will be done in parts and will last for a long time. Therefore it seems to me that all this will not affect the market much.

No, I don't think this is a kind of fud but this was a legit news. It's only up to the person that hears this if they think this can bring negative effect on the price of btc but for me the impact will be hardly seen because it is said that many people already got their payment in advance and those are left or those who prefer to get paid in bitcoins, are probably hodlers. I only wonder why the payout for those who want an advance payment is only $600 up to $1.3k ?

I think that was small compared to the bitcoin that most of them lost way back in 2011. Ah, maybe it was one of the conditions for having your payment earlier than the expected date.

Even though in the short term, we can take our profits back when the bitcoin price starts to move again.
Indeed that is our hope at this time, seeing the price of bitcoin soar and taking a position for us to buy and sell what we have maintained so far.

Liquidity is a short term trading effect as the market has not presumed the coins are not available just not traded actively, it doesnt bring us down especially is my guess.   They are likely to layer payments not a dump truck release of all at once just into one exchange, not all holder would immediately sell maybe if it was at the year start or surprise news of the war but not now imo.

If they really release it to its old users provably those will give some effect because for sure those old guys would provably sell their stuck coins for long years and this could create fud which can make the price of bitcoin move. But this is for short term only since for sure bitcoin will bounce and many investors will catch the knife at possible bottom price of it.

It all depends on how markets will react after the release of those Bitcoins. It's been almost 7 years since MtGox went down and I do remember well that the price was down around 180$/btc in MtGox when people were trying to access it as the price indicator was still working. Why this matters ? Well ...MtGox had a big influence back to BTC price and some might want to speculate this release as well.

I think not the MtGox coins directly but the whales love every tiny FUD to create panic. So the whales might start a sell off and make it look like the MtGox coins flooding the market.

Probably. It may keep the volatility high during that day and depending on the movement of the market. The trend will still favors on the bear this time and I wouldn't be surprised if it will not hold even before the time of its released, I'm expecting news FUD before it even begins.

So all this MtGox coins "drama" is somehow thrown out whenever somebody wants bitcoin traders be uneasy. It has happened before and it may happen in the future too.

The "when" matters a lot. As Franky said here, the chance is very high that it will take quite a long time until all the funds are sent out (from the moment they start sending). If 200k BTC is sold in a month or two that would be only some 3-7k BTC per day, which is not a big deal. Of course, it depends if this happens in a bull market or bear market.

While there's indeed a good chance many of those people will sell their coins (my take is 50% of the people though), I expect many are smart enough to wait for the price to recover and sell for much better price in a year or two. Since they've been waiting for so long, they may know already what patience is.

So I expect the sales will be actually scattered over many months (or years).

I think it will affect bitcoin price in the time of release. I'm speculating that it will be affected short term but will bounce back to it's price. I can assume that there will be a sharp drop on price since there are many victims are now waiting for their coins to be released and sell into the market. I myself is waiting for the release and the sharp price drop since I'll be catching the bitcoin they are selling.

August is also what we know as ghost month so I'm expecting a downside even without Mt. Gox scheduled release of bitcoin. Inflation rate also keeps rising which will cause more people to liquidate their holdings to keep up with the rising price of commodities. As long as the issues told by coolcoinz are not solved or have a solution, we should expect more dump coming until next year.

If this was a bull market it wouldn’t be so bad. However you need to realize that if the coins are at once sent to their owners and then many of those coins are going to hit exchanges then people will short Bitcoin along with those people who are going to sell those mtgox coins.

There will be little liquidity and it can get ugly. In a bear market everyone is scared to buy and most people only sell. The picked the worse time to release these coins.

I don't get what people spreading FUD in the bear market get out of it. You don't see it when we're hitting an ATH, but now so many journalists and influencers compete for the statue of the golden bear that it's painfully boring to watch. Watch out bitcoin could fall more because of:

war in Ukraine
rate hikes
Saylor will sell
miners will turn off their machines
gox money is coming
global recession
s&p 500 crash
bitcoin has to hit 10k because there's where I drew the line
Wolf of Wall Street said there will be a lower low

So remember guys, do as some wannabe analysts tell you and don't buy bitcoin! And if one day you wake up and see it up by 20%? Tough luck. In a few years there's going to be another crash and hopefully you'll be smarter.

Ok.
If the former users of Mt.Gox don't receive compensation in August, then this month there should not be strong fluctuations in bitcoin price. But someday they will still be sent bitcoins and something tells me that most of the Mt.Gox former users will easily sell their BTC. I think so, because quite a lot of time has passed and people are tired of waiting for their money back. Despite the current drop in the value of bitcoin, this still allows for a very good profit. Which in turn will encourage people to sell btc even now. 200.000BTC is unlikely to be sold at once, but most likely this is the fate that awaits most of this. Perhaps these sales will not affect the value of bitcoin much, but may serve as a trigger for panic selling of other investors. So, I assume that the compensation to the Mt.Gox users will negatively affect the situation on the cryptomarket in one way or another.
cитyaцию нa pынкe.

From the article:


Ok, I understand the don't buy now thing, he thinks the market will crash, but then why not trade futures if you think this is how it's going to end? If you're unsure about the outcome then why clearly focus on one way the price going. The last one, hold stablecoin! Because yeah, holding some UST or holding some tether in time of a crash is the best idea, it worked marvelously in the past so it will do now too, especially since they now claim it's backed by some non-us bonds, and guess what, other cryptos.

Anyhow, I don't know where did he get the date of August as the start of payments:
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20220706_announcement_en.pdf

In the letter, there is only one August mentioned, and it's not about the payments but something completely else

Yes I think it will have some affect on the bitcoin and crypto markets in general. I remember when certain companies were buying up peoples claims on their bitcoins back in 2015-2016 or so. However I am pretty sure it wasn't for $1200 per bitcoin they had missing I think it was more like $100-$200.

They started buying them when bitcoin was in the 3 figures and they didn't pay market value. I think it was maybe 50% of what it was worth. So if bitcoin was $1000, the max they offered was $500 or so. There is no way they would offer 100% because there is no risk/reward there.

These companies most likely have huge profits as a result and they will sell some of these coins to make their quarter results look good for investors. I think it will have a negative effect.

It is difficult to predict what will happen in this case, it is more likely that those who need money will sell their bitcoins as soon as they receive them. Those who don't need cash urgently may not be in a hurry to sell bitcoin because they already know that bitcoin is in a bear market and has lost more than 60% of its value against ATH. They have waited almost 8 years to get their bitcoin back and they may be willing to wait a little longer to be able to sell bitcoins at the best price they expect.

other things to consider.
imagine there were 100k customers..
all getting a split of the funds

its not going to be a single TX of 100k outputs
its going to be separate transactions over hours/days.
because the auditors will need to make a batch TX of X customers.
wait for the confirm. and triple check things as the funds go out per batch

its not a push button and forget thing for litigators/courts and auditors to do

so dont expect it all to release in one shot. and then dont expect all receivers to unanimously or even 50% of them to collectively decide to sell at the exact same moment.

with some exchanges only doing a couple hundred btc volume a day.. even if it was 10% of the stash being sold (13k) in one day. it can affect the prices

I'd guess that a "safe bet" would be that about half of the people will sell. The problem is that probably that doesn't mean half of the funds, so still no clue.

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On the other hand, is the repayment date set in stone? I mean that news about imminent repayment and/or imminent sell off of MtGox funds keep popping out every few months. I know that it's bound to happen sooner or later, but.. when is that? I think that even those who will handle the repayment know that it looks much better if that average 0.16BTC means $20k than $3k...

on the weigh of averages

the price at the MTGox close was in the $100-$1200 range for the couple years prior to close.. lets call it an even $400 for pencil math(not everyone bought at the same time)

imagine it was for easy pencil math.. 850k customers with 1btc each
well they aint all getting 1btc each back... they are getting (pencil math scenario) a 6th of their account balance

which is on average 0.16117647
which at todays price is still $3k

so still profit in the end. so selling is still profit

the only thing that matters is that its not a case where the coins are going to need to be sold by court order of settlement in one shot/one order to fulful a court ordered fiat amount settlement

by releasing the fund AS COINS. it atleast wont be a full 137k sell off in one shot. one sell order.
instead it can be sporadic and long term selling off chunks by old whales with more then a few coins.

though with all that said.
selling at the bottom of todays market is stupid.
they are in profit and some may just want out and forget about crypto there will be some sell off.
and some that may just hold

and now have fun speculating.. because no one knows what all the people will choose.

..
if i personally had coins in at the time. and a meaningful amount. i would have years ago wrote them off as a loss and forgot about them so it wont consume my life/stress levels.
then if getting a letter saying im getting a 6th of my balance mid summer. id choose to hoard. i wouldnt sell at this low market price even if they are in profit.
(but then again i actually do have my own hoard from 2012era, at super profit which i kept in my own private key where im not ready to sell)
though i do expect others to just want to sell up and move on if they totally removed themselves from crypto years ago