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Topic: Winkelvoss ETP could become THE pricing mechanism for BTC (Read 15385 times)

legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
Why fight against choice, diversity and new businesses?
They bought the bitcoin, so who am I to say that they shouldn't do what they want with them?
Lots of folks don't like what they are doing, lots do.
I don't think it should be "THE pricing mechanism", ever, but still think what they are doing is a great thing, and they are going after it in a big way with a lot of energy and resources.  I wish them every success.  Just because we aren't their market doesn't mean that there isn't one.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
Anyone dumb enough to invest in a bitcoin ETF, or any "share" of bitcoin being held by someone else, is dumber than a pile of rocks - seriously.
Just buy the fuckin bitcoins and keep them yourself. Why put your trust in an unknown entity? I think a lot of you are still children that need someone to hold your hand for you.


+1
This ETF is total BS.


You guys simple don't understand the benefits of having an ETF for Bitcoin.  This would be HUGE.  One, it would mean that Bitcoin has a small legal standing per the SEC since they approved the fund.  Two, it would mean having options, futures, and derivatives.  If you don't know why these are good for a "currency", do some Google research.  It means companies can hedge their bets if they hold Bitcoins.  Like airlines do for fuel so they are not subject to short term fluctuations.

hum why the hell would i want those twisted tools implemented with bitcoin? Speculating with bitcoin price is one thing but i cant imagine the pile of shit whenever those financial scriptural tools get involved in bitcoin globally. Isnt the actual crisis enough already? why always this urge to meet those banksters expectations? why using their tools? why kneeling before the SEC?
people investing in ETF are going to loose everything one day when it all crash and burn.
here we go, bitcoin subprimes! Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
We should expect this to unlock new investment in bitcoin.

This is essentially what the Winkelvi are betting on.  There's a lot of big money that can't play in this small space and an ETP would really open the doors.  It's not just retirement accounts, think about all the investment brokers who will be able to recommend this to their clients.  It's much easier to tell a client to invest in something on a known exchange rather than, "hey go to this former magic the gathering card website and buy up some of this stuff."

At least the market has pending good news.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
In my opinion the Winkelvoss ETP will be very unlikely to become the pricing mechanism for BTC, but since the issue was raised

Whats the ticker?   I want to short this sucker

Its not out yet.
There is probably a long term play in shorting the ETF against a long bitcoin position just because you aren't paying anything to hold your own coins, but I wouldn't naked short this IIWY.
Consider how many billions are locked into US 401K plans that could suddenly flood into bitcoin holdings.  We should expect this to unlock new investment in bitcoin.

I sell near term strangles to buy long term OTM verticals.   Little risk but little probability. But works good for shorting
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
We should expect this to unlock new investment in bitcoin.

This is essentially what the Winkelvi are betting on.  There's a lot of big money that can't play in this small space and an ETP would really open the doors.  It's not just retirement accounts, think about all the investment brokers who will be able to recommend this to their clients.  It's much easier to tell a client to invest in something on a known exchange rather than, "hey go to this former magic the gathering card website and buy up some of this stuff."
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
In my opinion the Winkelvoss ETP will be very unlikely to become the pricing mechanism for BTC, but since the issue was raised

Whats the ticker?   I want to short this sucker

Its not out yet.
There is probably a long term play in shorting the ETF against a long bitcoin position just because you aren't paying anything to hold your own coins, but I wouldn't naked short this IIWY.
Consider how many billions are locked into US 401K plans that could suddenly flood into bitcoin holdings.  We should expect this to unlock new investment in bitcoin.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
In my opinion the Winkelvoss ETP will be very unlikely to become the pricing mechanism for BTC, but since the issue was raised

Whats the ticker?   I want to short this sucker
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
Other than moving speculation out of the blockchain, and maybe some press, there's not much value added.
I hope they make some $$ but since they are adding zero BTC merchants, what does it add to the BTC economy.  It isn't even the first Bitcoin ETP/ETF

The value added to Bitcoin from this ETF comes from opening the market to many more potential buyers. The current Bitcoin exchanges are exceedingly bad at what they do and scare more conventional investors away. The price of BTC goes up when more people want to buy it than sell it at any given price point.

There are a ton of people who are not tech savvy but would love to make money. If those people are enabled to buy rather than being scared off by technical hurdles Bitcoin would be much more valuable. Exchanges are going to be for the exceedingly tech savvy people who make up Bitcoin's current community and really want to hold onto their own coins. That's going to make this fund the market's primary price setter.

Personally I see another bubble an order of magnitude bigger than the spring 2013 bubble occurring after this ETF becomes available...

An EFT bubble could be the biggest Bull run ever for BTC.
hero member
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
The difference between this and the stock market is that my 401k shares represent an actual ownership of some percentage of the company's shares.  Unless the Winkelvoss ETP would do something like let you trade in ETP shares for bitcoins, that wouldn't be the case here...

As with many commodity ETFs, it's only "Authorized Participants" who are able to create and redeem units, rather than we mere mortals.

I thought that was the case, but I double checked with the fund I was thinking of and found I was mistaken.  Thanks for clarifying.
sr. member
Activity: 330
Merit: 255
The difference between this and the stock market is that my 401k shares represent an actual ownership of some percentage of the company's shares.  Unless the Winkelvoss ETP would do something like let you trade in ETP shares for bitcoins, that wouldn't be the case here...

As with many commodity ETFs, it's only "Authorized Participants" who are able to create and redeem units, rather than we mere mortals.
hero member
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
There is money that is tied up in accounts that currently CANNOT be used to buy bitcoin until an ETF such as this is available.

Try to buy bitcoin in your 401K lately?

The difference between this and the stock market is that my 401k shares represent an actual ownership of some percentage of the company's shares.  Unless the Winkelvoss ETP would do something like let you trade in ETP shares for bitcoins, that wouldn't be the case here. 

On the other hand, there are already funds similar to this that trade in Gold and don't let people trade them in for actual gold, so maybe it won't matter.  There's a mix in those: I believe some do let traders exchange for actual gold, and some are trading in gold companies, and some are just tracking the gold market and not exchangeable for actual gold.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
There is money that is tied up in accounts that currently CANNOT be used to buy bitcoin until an ETF such as this is available.

Try to buy bitcoin in your 401K lately?
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 503
You guys simple don't understand the benefits of having an ETF for Bitcoin.  This would be HUGE.  One, it would mean that Bitcoin has a small legal standing per the SEC since they approved the fund.  Two, it would mean having options, futures, and derivatives.  If you don't know why these are good for a "currency", do some Google research.  It means companies can hedge their bets if they hold Bitcoins.  Like airlines do for fuel so they are not subject to short term fluctuations.

That's probably why these companies already offer trading in BTC futures and options:
https://icbit.se/
http://options.traderush.com/d/en/bitcoin-mining/index.html
http://lp.tradehits.net/pages/lp/lp_bitcoins.php

(No connection with any of these companies, but I've been following the first for a while because I'm interested in derivatives).

Until its regulated by a US authority or any sort of regulated trading authority it won't mean anything for the real money out there.  I can't seem Amazon ever using any of those sites listed.  I can see them using CBOE which is where the options would be listed for an ETF.

Well, that's something else entirely, isn't it? It's not "you don't understand why derivatives would be beneficial", it's "I believe regulation is beneficial". It's a discussion about regulation, not an assumption about how much we need to use Google. For the record, I think chasing regulatory approval to attract "real money" is not a good call - I'd rather see organic growth and no government interference.
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 501
You guys simple don't understand the benefits of having an ETF for Bitcoin.  This would be HUGE.  One, it would mean that Bitcoin has a small legal standing per the SEC since they approved the fund.  Two, it would mean having options, futures, and derivatives.  If you don't know why these are good for a "currency", do some Google research.  It means companies can hedge their bets if they hold Bitcoins.  Like airlines do for fuel so they are not subject to short term fluctuations.

That's probably why these companies already offer trading in BTC futures and options:
https://icbit.se/
http://options.traderush.com/d/en/bitcoin-mining/index.html
http://lp.tradehits.net/pages/lp/lp_bitcoins.php

(No connection with any of these companies, but I've been following the first for a while because I'm interested in derivatives).

Until its regulated by a US authority or any sort of regulated trading authority it won't mean anything for the real money out there.  I can't seem Amazon ever using any of those sites listed.  I can see them using CBOE which is where the options would be listed for an ETF.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 503
You guys simple don't understand the benefits of having an ETF for Bitcoin.  This would be HUGE.  One, it would mean that Bitcoin has a small legal standing per the SEC since they approved the fund.  Two, it would mean having options, futures, and derivatives.  If you don't know why these are good for a "currency", do some Google research.  It means companies can hedge their bets if they hold Bitcoins.  Like airlines do for fuel so they are not subject to short term fluctuations.

That's probably why these companies already offer trading in BTC futures and options:
https://icbit.se/
http://options.traderush.com/d/en/bitcoin-mining/index.html
http://lp.tradehits.net/pages/lp/lp_bitcoins.php

(No connection with any of these companies, but I've been following the first for a while because I'm interested in derivatives).
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 501
Anyone dumb enough to invest in a bitcoin ETF, or any "share" of bitcoin being held by someone else, is dumber than a pile of rocks - seriously.
Just buy the fuckin bitcoins and keep them yourself. Why put your trust in an unknown entity? I think a lot of you are still children that need someone to hold your hand for you.


+1
This ETF is total BS.


You guys simple don't understand the benefits of having an ETF for Bitcoin.  This would be HUGE.  One, it would mean that Bitcoin has a small legal standing per the SEC since they approved the fund.  Two, it would mean having options, futures, and derivatives.  If you don't know why these are good for a "currency", do some Google research.  It means companies can hedge their bets if they hold Bitcoins.  Like airlines do for fuel so they are not subject to short term fluctuations.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
Anyone dumb enough to invest in a bitcoin ETF, or any "share" of bitcoin being held by someone else, is dumber than a pile of rocks - seriously.
Just buy the fuckin bitcoins and keep them yourself. Why put your trust in an unknown entity? I think a lot of you are still children that need someone to hold your hand for you.


+1
This ETF is total BS.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
Anyone dumb enough to invest in a bitcoin ETF, or any "share" of bitcoin being held by someone else, is dumber than a pile of rocks - seriously.
Just buy the fuckin bitcoins and keep them yourself. Why put your trust in an unknown entity? I think a lot of you are still children that need someone to hold your hand for you.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Stand on the shoulders of giants
I cant think about bitcoin without think about gold too ... I think I need a lobotomy to wipe that correlation from my memory ...

full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
So will it be easily possible to build derivatives on this ETF (options, futures,...)?

How likely is that to happen?

Should the ETF go ahead, then IMHO, it's very likely that standardized options will appear -- and that, finally and at long last, will provide a credible mechanism for large Bitcoin handlers to hedge positions effectively. (No, the existing quasi options offered on "THE" exchange don't come close to offering such a credible mechanism. And the futures available on ICBIT become less and less appealing with every new change to the exchange's "rules".) Making more effective hedging possible would arguably remove one of the major roadblocks currently standing in the way of larger scale adoption of Bitcoin for real commerce.
Implied yield curve on long forwards would be highly negative. I'd be interested in seeing exactly how negative.
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