Within 2 years, effectively 85% of all bitcoins are mined! - page 3.

souspeed

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Quote from: IIOII on September 16, 2014, 12:38:00 PM

Quote from: souspeed on September 16, 2014, 12:01:15 PM

Incorrect

Quote

Definition of 'Inflation'

The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp

I'm referring to what Wikipedia calls Monetary Inflation which is the original meaning of the term inflation (from the latin word "inflare"). This is in line with the Austrian School of Economics. I refuse to call price increases inflation, because this hides the cause (increase in monetary supply) of the effect (rising prices).

I forgot, I'm on bitcointalk with some old school bitcoiners, where everybody is an Austrian School of Economics follower...

zimmah

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Quote from: asdlolciterquit on September 16, 2014, 06:25:03 AM

Quote from: cr1776 on September 16, 2014, 06:20:25 AM

Quote from: asdlolciterquit on September 16, 2014, 04:40:02 AM

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin.. Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed.

so, right now, btc have an inflation rate? where can i find info of its value?

you can calculate it from the following facts, which can be freely found online

1) Current amount of bitcoins in circulation (total number of bitcoins mined minus the known lost bitcoins)

2) block reward (right now 25 bitcoin per 10 minutes, so 2.5 per minute).

With this you can calculate how much inflation per week/month/year

The inflation is now fairly high (about 10% or so) but will soon be lowered to 5% or so around 2016. It will then gradually drop to 4% and at the halving after that drop to about 2% (in 2018/2019) after that it will decrease even lower and by about 2020 the inflation will be much less than 1%, at which point it may be considered pretty much irrelevant.

zimmah

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I'm not sure when the effect of this will kick in, but it could be anywhere from 2016 to 2020.

but the effect will surely be noticed

souspeed

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Quote from: IIOII on September 16, 2014, 09:26:25 AM

Quote from: souspeed on September 16, 2014, 07:56:04 AM

Quote from: cr1776 on September 16, 2014, 06:20:25 AM

Quote from: asdlolciterquit on September 16, 2014, 04:40:02 AM

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin.. Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed.

Inflation means prices go up, or in other words the value of the currency becomes less...
An inflation rate as presented above only indicates that there will be more coins over time, new coins get created...
This does not necessarily mean that value of bitcoin becomes less over time...

On the contrary history has shown the opposite, bitcoins become worth more overtime, because of its initial low price and exponentially growing adoption rate and eco-system...
Price is determined by supply and demand...

Therefore; bitcoin is deflationary, although for the next 100 years there are still newly freshly minted coins...

Incorrect. Inflation in its economical strict sense does only mean that the amount of total monetary units is increased. This often leads to a loss of purchasing power of each monetary unit (prices of goods "go up" numerically), but it is not the same as inflation. So the observance of increasing prices is a possible effect of inflation.

Bitcoin is inflationary but has deflationary effects, because the demand for bitcoin exceeds the supply of new coins. So adoption and lost coins do not only compensate for possible inflationary effects (loss of purchasing power of each bitcoin) but lead to an increase in purchasing power of each bitcoin.

Incorrect

Quote

Definition of 'Inflation'

The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp

itsAj

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Quote from: IIOII on September 16, 2014, 09:26:25 AM

Quote from: souspeed on September 16, 2014, 07:56:04 AM

Quote from: cr1776 on September 16, 2014, 06:20:25 AM

Quote from: asdlolciterquit on September 16, 2014, 04:40:02 AM

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin.. Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed.

Inflation means prices go up, or in other words the value of the currency becomes less...
An inflation rate as presented above only indicates that there will be more coins over time, new coins get created...
This does not necessarily mean that value of bitcoin becomes less over time...

On the contrary history has shown the opposite, bitcoins become worth more overtime, because of its initial low price and exponentially growing adoption rate and eco-system...
Price is determined by supply and demand...

Therefore; bitcoin is deflationary, although for the next 100 years there are still newly freshly minted coins...

Incorrect. Inflation in its economical strict sense does only mean that the amount of total monetary units is increased. This often leads to a loss of purchasing power of each monetary unit (prices of goods "go up" numerically), but it is not the same as inflation. So the observance of increasing prices is a possible effect of inflation.

Bitcoin is inflationary but has deflationary effects, because the demand for bitcoin exceeds the supply of new coins. So adoption and lost coins do not only compensate for possible inflationary effects (loss of purchasing power of each bitcoin) but lead to an increase in purchasing power of each bitcoin.

I think this depends on how you view "inflation", some people consider inflation to be when the prices of a basket of goods and services increases (this is generally how inflation is measured in the US and much of Europe).

In other places "inflation" is defined by the total money supply available in the economy.

giveBTCpls

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This could very well end up being near the end of 2015.

Consider the blocks generated in the last 4 months: block 240,000 was generated on 6/6. The network has confirmed about 22,000 blocks in 4 months. The 2 months prior, and the 2 months prior to that, only 10,000 blocks were confirmed.

Operating at the pace that we have over the last two months, the projected date for the block halving would be Feb 27, 2016, which would be a good conservative guess.

But if the network confirms at the pace of the last 1000 blocks, the halving event would be on December 5, 2015.

souspeed

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Quote from: cr1776 on September 16, 2014, 06:20:25 AM

Quote from: asdlolciterquit on September 16, 2014, 04:40:02 AM

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin.. Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed.

Inflation means prices go up, or in other words the value of the currency becomes less...
An inflation rate as presented above only indicates that there will be more coins over time, new coins get created...
This does not necessarily mean that value of bitcoin becomes less over time...

On the contrary history has shown the opposite, bitcoins become worth more overtime, because of its initial low price and exponentially growing adoption rate and eco-system...
Price is determined by supply and demand...

Therefore; bitcoin is deflationary, although for the next 100 years there are still newly freshly minted coins...

IIOII

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Quote from: souspeed on September 16, 2014, 12:01:15 PM

Incorrect

Quote

Definition of 'Inflation'

The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp

I'm referring to what Wikipedia calls Monetary Inflation which is the original meaning of the term inflation (from the latin word "inflare"). This is in line with the Austrian School of Economics. I refuse to call price increases inflation, because this hides the cause (increase in monetary supply) of the effect (rising prices).

IIOII

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Quote from: souspeed on September 16, 2014, 07:56:04 AM

Quote from: cr1776 on September 16, 2014, 06:20:25 AM

Quote from: asdlolciterquit on September 16, 2014, 04:40:02 AM

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin.. Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed.

Inflation means prices go up, or in other words the value of the currency becomes less...
An inflation rate as presented above only indicates that there will be more coins over time, new coins get created...
This does not necessarily mean that value of bitcoin becomes less over time...

On the contrary history has shown the opposite, bitcoins become worth more overtime, because of its initial low price and exponentially growing adoption rate and eco-system...
Price is determined by supply and demand...

Therefore; bitcoin is deflationary, although for the next 100 years there are still newly freshly minted coins...

Incorrect. Inflation in its economical strict sense does only mean that the amount of total monetary units is increased. This often leads to a loss of purchasing power of each monetary unit (prices of goods "go up" numerically), but it is not the same as inflation. So the observance of increasing prices is a possible effect of inflation.

Bitcoin is inflationary but has deflationary effects, because the demand for bitcoin exceeds the supply of new coins. So adoption and lost coins do not only compensate for possible inflationary effects (loss of purchasing power of each bitcoin) but lead to an increase in purchasing power of each bitcoin.

bitebits

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Quote from: cr1776 on September 16, 2014, 06:20:25 AM

Quote from: asdlolciterquit on September 16, 2014, 04:40:02 AM

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin.. Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed.

You are doing the same in an opposite matter. After 2020 there will just be some yearly Sathosi inflation dust left to mine till 2140. It again amplifies my feeling that the huge decreasing rate of inflation is highly underestimated.

asdlolciterquit

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Quote from: cr1776 on September 16, 2014, 06:20:25 AM

Quote from: asdlolciterquit on September 16, 2014, 04:40:02 AM

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin.. Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed.

so, right now, btc have an inflation rate? where can i find info of its value?

souspeed

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Quote from: asdlolciterquit on September 16, 2014, 04:40:02 AM

Quote from: bitebits on September 14, 2014, 07:32:46 AM

In our current western economy, when there is plenty for everyone, few consider the real value of their money and material possessions. The same applies to the current bitcoin presumed dollar value. Daily supply (~3600 coins) is still high, and demand relatively low.

However, the above is about to reverse. Fresh supply is about to run out, the last 10% takes forever. This while the usability keeps on increasing at an amazing pace.

I think the near future 'limited new supply' vs 'high demand' is highly underestimated. Good times ahead!

source: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/chart-bitcoin-inflation-vs-time-130619

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin.. Huh

You can see that the inflation rate is going down over time...
In the end the supply is fixed, no more new coins....

Inflation rate, supply of new coins, doesn't necessarily mean that there is inflation...
The price might still go up, although there is a supply of new coins entering the market...

cr1776

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Quote from: asdlolciterquit on September 16, 2014, 04:40:02 AM

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin.. Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed.

asdlolciterquit

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Quote from: bitebits on September 14, 2014, 07:32:46 AM

In our current western economy, when there is plenty for everyone, few consider the real value of their money and material possessions. The same applies to the current bitcoin presumed dollar value. Daily supply (~3600 coins) is still high, and demand relatively low.

However, the above is about to reverse. Fresh supply is about to run out, the last 10% takes forever. This while the usability keeps on increasing at an amazing pace.

I think the near future 'limited new supply' vs 'high demand' is highly underestimated. Good times ahead!

source: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/chart-bitcoin-inflation-vs-time-130619

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin.. Huh

Fabrizio89

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Yes, miners right now have the price in their hands. When their pressure on the market will be lower, we should see the real effect of deflation.

odolvlobo

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Quote from: bitebits on September 15, 2014, 01:46:31 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on September 15, 2014, 11:43:57 AM

You might want to fix your numbers. In 2 years, 75% of the bitcoins will be mined, not 85%. And the remaining 25% will take another century to mine. Meanwhile, the supply of bitcoins continues to grow, even if the "fresh" supply goes to 0.

But the last 10% takes a loooooong time.
So effectively, after the halving there is only 100% - 10% - 75% = 15% left.

But the last 1% takes almost as long as the last 10%. It will only take 20 years to get to the last 1%, but another 120 years to mine the rest. So, you could then say that there are "effectively" 24% left in 2 years.

Quote from: bitebits on September 15, 2014, 01:46:31 PM

You confirm my thoughts that the near future 'limited new supply' vs 'high demand' is highly underestimated.

My point was that comparing 'limited new supply' vs 'high demand' not as valid as comparing supply vs. demand or limited new supply vs limited high demand.

Wekkel

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yes

It basically underwrites the theory of Masterlucif that Bitcoin will go nowhere until the next block halving.

bitebits

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Quote from: odolvlobo on September 15, 2014, 11:43:57 AM

You might want to fix your numbers. In 2 years, 75% of the bitcoins will be mined, not 85%. And the remaining 25% will take another century to mine.

But the last 10% takes a loooooong time.
So effectively, after the halving there is only 100% - 10% - 75% = 15% left.

You confirm my thoughts that the near future 'limited new supply' vs 'high demand' is highly underestimated.

Quote from: odolvlobo on September 15, 2014, 11:43:57 AM

Meanwhile, the supply of bitcoins continues to grow, even if the "fresh" supply goes to 0.

This ofcourse would be really healthy, it is the redistribution of wealth. Only a few will sit on their stash no matter what, because there is no need to spend. Just like in the current economy.

odolvlobo

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You might want to fix your numbers. In 2 years, 75% of the bitcoins will be mined, not 85%. And the remaining 25% will take another century to mine. Meanwhile, the supply of bitcoins continues to grow, even if the "fresh" supply goes to 0.

Brewins

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Either we go moon or we go the doge path.

Can't see other options after the halving

Topic: Within 2 years, effectively 85% of all bitcoins are mined! - page 3. (Read 4695 times)