i suspect a very strong correlation between the bitcoin and electricity prices in the future.
that correlation, i think, will start to kick in once the majority of the electricity providers become bitcoin miners as well (as a side hustle at first).
The daily reward from mining is ~30 million, which would go for 10 billion a year in revenue.
EDF, France's largest electricity provider had an annual revenue of 148 billion, and this is just one provider in one country and not by far the largest in electricity consumption, if we take China for example, the total mining reward would be just 1.2% of their revenue.
How would that work with all of them?
Not to mention an incoming halving!
Besides the whole thing fails to address two misunderstandings:
- bitcoin price determines how much electricity miner would afford to spend to run their gear.
- electricity prices determine only how many miners will be able to mine.
Bitcoin price determines electricity consumption, not the other way around.
The relative ease and cost effective of erecting small power plants using renewableenergies (such as hydro, solar and wind) compared to legacy power plants [5] is giving aclear preference for smaller companies who enter the bitcoin mining space to userenewables rather than siphoning power from existing grid
Name one single company and one data farm that is completely running on wind and solar.
I can name you 4 with more than 200MW that run on coal and gas!
We now assume that local power companies will have enough power production capacityin total ready to answer all the needs of their local grid (because they over-produce to becompetitive in the bitcoin mining industry) so the price naturally goes down when the power is diverted from the mining operation to the grid (due to quick increase in supply).
You forgot in both this assumption and the formula to add the price of the gear that is going to be used for mining and you forgot that electricity even solar is not free when you have to cough up $1 million in advance for it to be built, and it takes a lot of time. So the power company will not only have to increase their power generation to have extra available power, god knows why but also to buy gear and to maintain it and to have to deal with the fact that no matter how much they try they will never be able to beat the 2.5 cents per kwh Riot and Mara are mining at.
There won't be any
worldwide currency as long as half of the hashrate is in one country and the majority of the rest in another 3 or 4.