Topic: WTF is going on with mining? - page 2. (Read 3312 times)
Not seeing a whole bunch of leveling off yet and the huge numbers of people still willing to gamble on pre-orders will ensure that we badly overshoot sane mining profit margins(we already are for people with high power costs).
Dog eat dog in the BTC world. People are greedy when they see the B sign in front of them, similar to reasoning with crack heads, nobody wins.
It's worse than crack for sure. More expensive and harder to kick.
I believe mining is really bad addiction.
Noone is saying its not going to slow down, its just not going to end any-time soon. If Spoondoleys can do 460 watts per terrahash, then some other manufacturer is going to do 46 watts per 100 GH. Then that will spawn a whole new range of mining rigs, until someone comes up with the 44 watt per 100 GH rig, and then a 40 watt per GH miner, and so on. Miners will change out their rigs when more efficient ones come out, and even install extra power in their houses if need be. The math means nothing to those in this craze, miners want to keep mining until they are broke, and living on the streets, even then they will be dreaming of ways to mine while living in a trash can.
The problem with most of those contributing to this forum is that you think there is logic and good sense at play here, there is none of that here.
The problem with most of those contributing to this forum is that you think there is logic and good sense at play here, there is none of that here.
Hi guys
I mined. I went broke. I live in a hotel, not trash can.
Noone is saying its not going to slow down, its just not going to end any-time soon. If Spoondoleys can do 460 watts per terrahash, then some other manufacturer is going to do 46 watts per 100 GH. Then that will spawn a whole new range of mining rigs, until someone comes up with the 44 watt per 100 GH rig, and then a 40 watt per GH miner, and so on. Miners will change out their rigs when more efficient ones come out, and even install extra power in their houses if need be. The math means nothing to those in this craze, miners want to keep mining until they are broke, and living on the streets, even then they will be dreaming of ways to mine while living in a trash can.
The problem with most of those contributing to this forum is that you think there is logic and good sense at play here, there is none of that here.
The problem with most of those contributing to this forum is that you think there is logic and good sense at play here, there is none of that here.
Heres a good guess at a possible future timeline.
Imagine if someone comes out with a self powered 30 watt USB stick that can do 100 GH/s, and you can run 20 of those on a Raspberry Pi. Even at todays low BTC rate / high difficulty, small scale miners will gobble that product up. Think thats crazy, then just go back 4 years in a time machine and say "imagine the day when you could get a machine that runs at 2 TH/s and only uses 1 kWh".
If you were contemplating the cost of running 5 Antminer S1s at 2 kWh vs 10 USB sticks at 300 watts, which would you choose. We saw this happen with SCRYPT and ASICs, it will happen again similar to this example, and we will only see more and more mining.
Small miners will become medium size miners. Medium scale miners will become big players. The difficulty will continue to rise.
When the day comes where the exchange of goods and services dwarf mining, then bitcoin prices will rise again and......mining will scale up again in mulitples of what you see today.
Its the nature of the beast.
Imagine if someone comes out with a self powered 30 watt USB stick that can do 100 GH/s, and you can run 20 of those on a Raspberry Pi. Even at todays low BTC rate / high difficulty, small scale miners will gobble that product up. Think thats crazy, then just go back 4 years in a time machine and say "imagine the day when you could get a machine that runs at 2 TH/s and only uses 1 kWh".
If you were contemplating the cost of running 5 Antminer S1s at 2 kWh vs 10 USB sticks at 300 watts, which would you choose. We saw this happen with SCRYPT and ASICs, it will happen again similar to this example, and we will only see more and more mining.
Small miners will become medium size miners. Medium scale miners will become big players. The difficulty will continue to rise.
When the day comes where the exchange of goods and services dwarf mining, then bitcoin prices will rise again and......mining will scale up again in mulitples of what you see today.
Its the nature of the beast.
wrong. just study power efficiency improvement.. you will see the watt to gh ratio no longer has much improvement.
a gpu rig did 300 watts for 1gh
fgpa's 35 watts for 1gh
first asics 10 watts for 1 gh
then 7 watts for 1gh
then 2 watts for 1gh
then 1.1 watt for 1gh
then .7 watt for 1gh---------------------Sp10's can do this
next .46 watt for 1gh--------------------Sp30's promise us this.
So I ask you how low do you think it gets to? .3 or .2 maybe .1 lets pretend .1 watts is the best that is 7x the current .7 best there is.
How does that compare to 300 watts with a gpu compared to .7 .
hmmm 428 to 1 improvement in watt to gh has happened. .7 to .46 is scheduled that is 1.52 to 1 in watt to gh improvement . maybe .7 to .1 will happen that is only 7x
so growth should slow. a lot.
Heres a good guess at a possible future timeline.
Imagine if someone comes out with a self powered 30 watt USB stick that can do 100 GH/s, and you can run 20 of those on a Raspberry Pi. Even at todays low BTC rate / high difficulty, small scale miners will gobble that product up. Think thats crazy, then just go back 4 years in a time machine and say "imagine the day when you could get a machine that runs at 2 TH/s and only uses 1 kWh".
If you were contemplating the cost of running 5 Antminer S1s at 2 kWh vs 10 USB sticks at 300 watts, which would you choose. We saw this happen with SCRYPT and ASICs, it will happen again similar to this example, and we will only see more and more mining.
Small miners will become medium size miners. Medium scale miners will become big players. The difficulty will continue to rise.
When the day comes where the exchange of goods and services dwarf mining, then bitcoin prices will rise again and......mining will scale up again in mulitples of what you see today.
Its the nature of the beast.
Imagine if someone comes out with a self powered 30 watt USB stick that can do 100 GH/s, and you can run 20 of those on a Raspberry Pi. Even at todays low BTC rate / high difficulty, small scale miners will gobble that product up. Think thats crazy, then just go back 4 years in a time machine and say "imagine the day when you could get a machine that runs at 2 TH/s and only uses 1 kWh".
If you were contemplating the cost of running 5 Antminer S1s at 2 kWh vs 10 USB sticks at 300 watts, which would you choose. We saw this happen with SCRYPT and ASICs, it will happen again similar to this example, and we will only see more and more mining.
Small miners will become medium size miners. Medium scale miners will become big players. The difficulty will continue to rise.
When the day comes where the exchange of goods and services dwarf mining, then bitcoin prices will rise again and......mining will scale up again in mulitples of what you see today.
Its the nature of the beast.
I weep for the lack of math being done.
You guys just fill in your charts and believe them without question. The charts can't predict fiat price and they have no idea what the difficulty will be next month. You might have noticed the difficulty is leveling off and hardware is going on sale, meaning there is less demand. This will continue as long as the mathematically challenged keep saying "you can't make a profit mining" and people like myself keep making a profit.
Keep up the good work!
You guys just fill in your charts and believe them without question. The charts can't predict fiat price and they have no idea what the difficulty will be next month. You might have noticed the difficulty is leveling off and hardware is going on sale, meaning there is less demand. This will continue as long as the mathematically challenged keep saying "you can't make a profit mining" and people like myself keep making a profit.
Keep up the good work!
Small players should take a break IMO, unless you have a special advantage such as free electricity. Conditions are just not very good for mining right now.
If there is a glut of ASICs, ASIC manufacturers go bankrupt, and ASICs start getting liquidated, that will be the time to start mining again. Not until.
I've been mining on and off for three years and this is pretty much the first time I can remember that there isn't really anything worth buying.
If there is a glut of ASICs, ASIC manufacturers go bankrupt, and ASICs start getting liquidated, that will be the time to start mining again. Not until.
I've been mining on and off for three years and this is pretty much the first time I can remember that there isn't really anything worth buying.
So here's my tought:
I've been mining for the fun of it but also for the profit i could get too. At least until now or just before the bubble back in november. However, i sold out my gear as it appeared mining wouldnt be as profitable as it used to be. Nowadays, with BTC price tanking, it seems mining isnt even close to ROI in fiat terms. I wouldnt even think of considering it from a BTC investment point of view.
After considering it for a while,it appears to me that there are 2 factors allowing such a decline in profitability:
- ASIC manufacturers are overpricing their products
- Bitcoin is undervalued
As much as i would love to think bitcoin is undervalued ATM, i think it still needs time to catch up. On the other hand, it also seems manufaturers such as spondoliees or bitmain are doing their best to offer good priced products - but still far from being profitable.
So my conclusion is this: the mining industry has grown too fast. this phenomenon had led to more centralisation of mining computing power since only bulk buyers where considered first before throwing the rest to us, individuals, that are nontheless the essence of what bitcoin tried to achieved when addressing that centralisation issue.
So WTF is next? are we at the point where mining difficulty should stabilize? will small players abandon the mining ship already? Will manufacturers lower their price even more? Will they go bankrupt? is bitcoin going to survive this? Or should we just dont care and wait for better times?
I've been mining for the fun of it but also for the profit i could get too. At least until now or just before the bubble back in november. However, i sold out my gear as it appeared mining wouldnt be as profitable as it used to be. Nowadays, with BTC price tanking, it seems mining isnt even close to ROI in fiat terms. I wouldnt even think of considering it from a BTC investment point of view.
After considering it for a while,it appears to me that there are 2 factors allowing such a decline in profitability:
- ASIC manufacturers are overpricing their products
- Bitcoin is undervalued
As much as i would love to think bitcoin is undervalued ATM, i think it still needs time to catch up. On the other hand, it also seems manufaturers such as spondoliees or bitmain are doing their best to offer good priced products - but still far from being profitable.
So my conclusion is this: the mining industry has grown too fast. this phenomenon had led to more centralisation of mining computing power since only bulk buyers where considered first before throwing the rest to us, individuals, that are nontheless the essence of what bitcoin tried to achieved when addressing that centralisation issue.
So WTF is next? are we at the point where mining difficulty should stabilize? will small players abandon the mining ship already? Will manufacturers lower their price even more? Will they go bankrupt? is bitcoin going to survive this? Or should we just dont care and wait for better times?
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